1. Columbia River salmon : Who (or what) will save them? John Williams Klarälven meeting in Karlstad 9 May 2011

3. Road Map Columbia River history decline of salmon stocks Endangered Species Act detour - survival studies recent trends present controversies

4. The Players: Dam operators (COE) Power marketers (BPA and PUDs) Water users (BuRec/irrigators/tow boats) Environmental advocates Native tribes Fishers States Federal Government (regulators) Federal Court system Scientists Mother nature

5. Science--range of results for different options Science--will not resolve policy issues: recovery objective acceptable risk for failure to achieve objective burden of proof--on fish or status quo allocation of impacts among constituencies: who pays Conclusion

6. Causes of decline (anthropogenic) harvest habitat hydropower (but need to consider all dams) hatcheries

7. Columbia River salmon - peak runs 1,000s of fish (After Chapman TAFS – 1986) Chinook - Spring 400 - 500 Summer 1,700 - 2,000 Fall 1,100 - 1,250 3,200 – 3,750 Steelhead 382 - 449 Sockeye 1,915 - 2,253

13. Mitchell Act - 1938 Historic location Present location

14. Historic Present

17. Bonneville McNaryLower Granite

18. Stocks listed Hydropower dam completion

19. Snake River

20. Endangered Species Act Status of West Coast Salmon & Steelhead (Updated July 1, 2009) Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) 1Snake River Endangered 2Okanogan River Not Warranted 3Lake Wenatchee Not Warranted Chinook Salmon (O. tshawytscha) 4Upper Columbia River Spring-run Endangered 5Snake River Spring/Summer-run Threatened 6Snake River Fall-run Threatened 7Lower Columbia River Threatened 8Upper Willamette River Threatened 9Middle Columbia River spring-run Not Warranted 10Upper Columbia River summer/fall-run Not Warranted 12Deschutes River summer/fall-run Not Warranted

21. Coho Salmon (O. kisutch) 13Lower Columbia River Threatened Chum Salmon (O. keta) 14Columbia River Threatened Steelhead (O. mykiss) 15Upper Columbia River Threatened 16Snake River Basin Threatened 17Lower Columbia River Threatened 18Upper Willamette River Threatened 19Middle Columbia River Threatened

23. Changed flow Cumulative turbine mortality ‘Gas bubble disease’

24. Snake River Chinook salmon

26. Solutions to address problems 1.Spill – fix conditions, more of it, surface routes 2. Install bypass systems 3. Transportation 4. Hatcheries (?) 5. Restore flow 6. Decrease harvest Hatchery Wild *

27. Hatcheries Juvenile releases Effects on wild spawners

30. Smolt survival estimation Historically - freeze-branded fish, batch marked estimated collection efficiency expanded count to obtain population compared populations at dams

31. At present - PIT-tags (radio or acoustic tags) identify individual fish maximum likelihood estimation based on Cormack, Jolly, Seber procedures Smolt survival estimation

32. Single-Release of Tagged Individuals Two “recapture” occasions Mark-Recapture Data = Possible PIT-Tag Detection Histories Detection histories record outcome of series of conditionally independent events. Histories constitute multinomial sample. Probability of each history depends on conditional survival and detection probabilities. 111 : S 1 P 1  110 : S 1 P 1  101 : S 1 (1-P 1  S 1  S 1 (1-P 1   =S 2 p 2  P1P1 S2S2 P2P2 R S1S1

33. Many assumptions Some not met exactly Bias in survival estimates

34. Status of stocks at present (empirical data)

37. R 2 = 0.71 (after Scheuerell and Williams. 2005. Fish & Ocean)

38. Some return rate arguments based on PIT-tagged fish

39. But, absolute numbers of wild fish returns less

40. What will happen in the future?

41. Karluk Lake δ15N Anchovy scales Sardine scales Saanich fish remains 0 400 800 1200 1600 AD2000 Calendar age From Finney et al. (2002). Nature It is difficult to know where to go, when we don’t know where we are.

42. Actions planned continue harvest limitations consider decreasing hatchery production improve spawning, rearing, and migration habitat ‘tweak’ hydropower system

43. Summary stocks declined concurrent with hydropower construction direct juvenile survival now high run timing of smolts critical ocean influences return rates hydropower now ‘takes’ some juveniles that historically would have become adult harvest unclear how much improvement in habitat possible unclear effect of hatcheries

44. controversial -- environmental activists want dams removed -- federal judge tends to side with environmental activists – dams limit recovery -- effect of habitat and hatcheries ?? -- do not have means to predict future -- concerns about how climate will affect stocks -- effect of anthropogenic changes on productivity and abundance ??

45. Thanks for your attention Comments? Questions?