1. Michele Bozzano IPGRI Climate change and forest genetic diversity

2. Climate change – the problem International context Case studies Climate change and FGR in Europe Research needs and Concluding remarks

10. Gösta Eriksson Forest genetics modified Global climate change is not a recent phenomenon Forest trees have continuously responded on climate change New is the speed of change New is the degradation of the environment

11. Gösta Eriksson Forest genetics Mutation rates in these traits Factors of importance in case of rapid global change Dispersal ability Existing additive variance in important traits Speed of evolutionMating pattern Possibilities to acclimate

12. Temperature gradient Area first affected in case of global warming Low additive variance Physiological constraints Negative correlations for traits of significance in the unexploited area Gene flow from center areas slows down the adaptation Lack of competitive ability outside the present range Gösta Eriksson Forest genetics Area, within which the species does not occur. Which are the limitations?

13. Long-term survival Ability to acclimate phenotypic plasticity Gösta Eriksson Forest genetics Trait value Environmental gradient phenotypic plasticity

14. Long-term survival Dispersal ability Ability to acclimate phenotypic plasticity Gösta Eriksson Forest genetics

15. Gösta Eriksson Forest genetics Position of the climate, at which the yellow and grey species live today Distance Position of the climate, at which the yellow and grey species existed before the appearance of the greenhouse effect D1D1 D2D2 Requirement for survival: Migration rates must > D1/time and D2/time

17. Climatic conditions suitable for growth of species A Gösta Eriksson Forest genetics

18. Gösta Eriksson Forest genetics J. Travis and D. J. Futuyma 1993: ”Whether a species adapts or becomes extinct depends on whether it is able to mobilize sufficient genetic variation for key phenotypic traits before being overtaken by the pace of environmental alteration”

19. Gösta Eriksson Forest genetics Adaptedness = the degree to which an organism is able to live and reproduce in a given environment Adaptability = the ability of a population to respond genetically or phenotypically to changed environmental conditions Adaptation = the process of genetic change of a population, owing to natural selection, resulting in a better adaptedness in a specific environment

20. AdaptednessAdditive variance Vegetatively propagating species may suffer severely under rapidly changing environmental conditions Gösta Eriksson Forest genetics

21. Gösta Eriksson Forest genetics Ramdom mating assumed Adaptedness disruptive selection gene flow

22. http://www.ipcc.ch/

24. http://www.frameweb.org/ev_en.php?ID=1123_201&I D2=DO_TOPIC http://www.climate.org/CI/asia.shtml http://www.grida.no/climate/ ipcc_tar/wg2/pdf/wg2TARch ap11.pdf http://www.grida.no/climate/ ipcc_tar/wg2/411.htm Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

25. http://www.ipcc.ch/ pub/tpbiodiv.pdf

26. http://unfccc.int

27. http://www.unep-wcmc.org/climate/index.html

28. http://www.biodiv.org/programmes/ cross-cutting/climate/default.asp

29. Case study Australia

30. Ensis Forests THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION Determining Tree Species Climatic Requirements and Climate Change Impacts on Their Distributions Trevor H. Booth and Tom Jovanovic

31. THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION Hughes et al. 1996 a,b  Global Ecology & Biogeography Letters  BIOCLIM 819 Euc. species – Nat. Herb – 40 000  Many species narrow MAT range – esp. SW WA

32. THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION Booth & Jovanovic (2005) Climatic change study for AGO  CSIRO Marine & Atmos. Res. scenarios  DARLAM & Cubic Conformal  2030 & 2070  31 tree species

33. THE JOINT FORCES OF CSIRO & SCION

34. Hughes et al. (1996) Vulnerable Euc. hotspot Present CC 2030 CC 2070

35. Of possible interst: Matching Trees and Sites”. ACIAR Proceedings No. 63 http://www.aciar.gov.au/web.nsf/doc/JFRN-5J474N To try to have a free copy write to:comms@aciar.gov.au specifying the country and the use you wish to do with itcomms@aciar.gov.au

36. Climate change and FGR in Europe Fourth Ministerial Conference on the Protection Forests in Europe (MCPFE), Vienna, Austria, 2003 –Vienna Resolution 5: Climate change and sustainable forest management Workshop on ‘Climate change and forest genetic diversity: Implications for sustainable forest management in Europe, Paris, France, 15-16 March 2006 Jarkko Koskela IPGRI

37. Climate change and FGR in Europe Key issues in Europe Adaptation of forest trees Forest management Policies and economic considerations Conservation of forest genetic resources under climate change

38. Adaptation of forest trees Climate change and sessile oak (Quercus petraea) Current distribution: Observed Simulated Future distribution 2080: Gain Stable Loss Simulations with BIOMOD model Thuiller 2003, Global Change Biology

39. Adaptation of forest trees Simulations are often based on the ‘climatic envelope’ approach The responses are not likely to be simple and straightforward Genetic processes in tree populations can modify their ecological niches –at individual level (plasticity, individual heterozygosity, changes in gene expression) the responses can be fast

40. Adaptation of forest trees How fast a tree population respond to climate change? Answers from: –Long-distance transfer of forest reproductive material –Provenance trials –Theoretical simulations

41. Adaptation of forest trees Experimental evidences: –Long-distance transfer results in most cases to rapid differentiation of populations (e.g. landraces in exotic species; American oaks and conifers in Europe) –Tree populations have undergone profound genetic differentiation as a result of natural selection (based on 50-yr provenance trials)

42. Adaptation of forest trees Migration –The current tree species in Europe have gone through selection process based on their capacity to migrate during the glacial-interglacial changes (extinctions of many species and genera (Magnolia, Liriodendron, Nyssa,Taxodium, Sequoia) during the process) –Can be an efficient mechanism to withstand climate change

43. Adaptation of forest trees Problems for migration –Spontaneous migration of tree species is unlikely in Europe today (intensive management, fragmented landscapes) –Landscape is not empty but filled with existing plant species -> interspecific competition –Can be a slow process

44. Adaptation of forest trees Careful transfer of forest reproductive material based on scientific results have the potential to accelerate adaptation of forest trees to climate change in Europe The effects of climate change on tree populations are different in various parts of Europe (temperature, droughts)

45. Research needs Understanding Mitigate (CO 2 storage + environment restoration) Safeguard the species and their genetic diversity