1. EOR: Promesa Incumplida o un Gran Futuro?
Fernando Cabrera
Eduardo Manrique
EOR: Promesa Incumplida o un Gran Futuro?
Neuquén
Nov. 5, 2010
Gracias (to person who introduces)
Buenas tardes damas y caballeros. EOR es un tema que para mucha gente, conlleva una connotacion negativa. Para otros, es un concepto alentadora. Y los dos puntos de vista son validos. En los siguientes 40 minutos revisaremos varios factores que nos daran una idea de la potencial de EOR, las tendencias actuales, y lo que podemos esperar de EOR en el futuro.

2. Waiting for the EOR Boom: What Happen in the Mean Time
EOR potential has been predicted over the past three decades
After crude oil price collapse in mid 80s, EOR activity slow down drastically
Majors decided shut-down research centers and number of students enrolled in reservoir/petroleum engineering and in geoscience also dropped in Universities
Since 2007 EOR activity start showing a growing trend having Canada, China and the U.S. as the countries with the largest EOR production
CO2 EOR/storage started to get lot of attention due to new environmental regulations
Lack of expertise and prepared work force is one of the key factors constraining EOR evaluation and implementation
EOR offshore is still at early stages of evaluation (will require 1 to 2 decades if EOR becomes economically attractive)

3. EOR projects in the U.S. & Average World Crude Oil Price
Source: Oil & Gas Journal
Evolution of EOR projects in the U.S. ( )
Historical world average crude oil price
( )
Source: U.S. Department of Energy
En China, donde estan radicadas varios fabricantes de polimeros, se encuentra muchos proyectos EOR con las tecnologias quimicas. Hay varias proyectos con microgeles en China estan incluidos en la categoria de polimeros.
Tambien, hay 17 yacimientos con inyeccion de vapor.

4. Worldwide Oil and EOR Production (billion barrels)
World Oil Production
Gas and thermal methods represents 60-70% of worldwide EOR production
Chemical flooding represents up to 27% of total EOR production
World EOR Production
SOURCE: Department of Energy, U.S. Energy Information Administration. Calculated and estimated by SBI Energy, April 2010

5. Percentage of EOR Production by Country in 2009 (≈ 1.1 Billion bbl)
SOURCE: Industry Sources. Calculated and estimated by SBI Energy

6. EOR Market Value
EOR Market Value
( )
The EOR market value rose from over $3.1 billion in 2005 to almost $62.5 billion in 2009
Drop observed in 2009 is not related to EOR production decrease but an approximate $30 per barrel drop in oil prices

7. One of Multiple New EOR Predictions

8. Projected EOR Potential: 2009 - 2015
Projected Total Oil Production
(Billion Barrels)
Projected EOR Oil Production
SOURCE: Industry Sources. Calculated and estimated by SBI Energy
Market study in 1998 total EOR production was estimated in 1 Billion barrels by 2005 (Fredonia)
Recent market study for EOR predicts a steady increase in world oil production based on energy demand and economic growth of China, India, Russia and the U.S. (SBI Energy 2010)
World EOR production was forecasted in approx. 12 billion barrels by 2015
EOR market value was projected to reach $US 1.3 Trillion by 2015

9. EOR Projected Market Growth Based on Oil Price Per Barrel
Average Price
$US/bbl
Low 55
Reference 92
High
115
SOURCE: Department of Energy, U.S. Energy Information Administration and industry sources. Calculated and estimated by SBI Energy.

10. SOURCE: Industry Sources. Calculated and estimated by SBI Energy
Projected EOR Worldwide Market Share of Production by 2015 (≈ 12 Billion bbl)
SOURCE: Industry Sources. Calculated and estimated by SBI Energy

11. Two EOR Cases: CO2 vs. HPAI

12. Trend of CO2 Floods and Oil Prices in the U.S.
Sources: O&G Journal and EIA

13. North American CO2 Sources and EOR Areas (Most from Natural Sources!)

14. North American CO2 Source Deliveries for Enhanced Oil Recovery Q4 2006

15. Average CO2 Capture Cost by Source
Source: Industry Sources. Calculated and estimated by SBI Energy, April 2010

16. Example of CO2 Flood Costs and Incomes (EOR / Storage)
€ 9.75/tCO Feb. 09
€ 15.34/tCO Aug. 09
€ 14.38/tCO2 – 4 Nov. 10
Potential incomes to offset CCS costs
$40/bbl - 02 Feb. 09 $74/bbl - 21 Aug. 09
$86/bbl – 4 Nov. 10
Costs
Include compression costs

17. Example of CO2 Purchase/Recycle in a Large CO2-EOR Project
CO2 recycling limit storage potential of oil reservoirs (Economic limit of EOR projects). CO2 storage is also limited by the reservoir storage capacity.
Courtesy of Ron Wackowski, 1997
CO2 purchase decreases with time in EOR projects (Economics).

18. HPAI vs. CO2 in Northern U.S.
Great Plains Synfuels Plant
Weyburn
205 miles
Ongoing HPAI projects in MT, ND & SD
120 – 170 miles
Sources: NatCarb and Dakota Gasification Company

19. Trend of Air Injection Projects: Carbonate and Sandstone Fm.
Sources: O&G Journal

20. Cedar Hills Project, North Dakota
Why High Pressure Air Injection (HPAI)?
Low primary recovery ~ 8%
Fluid expansion and rock compaction are main driving mechanisms
Low permeability ~ 3 md (Dolomitic Reservoir)
High Initial water saturation ~ 35%
Deep reservoir ~ 9,000 ft
High temperature ~ 225° F
No access to cheap CO2
Natural Gas for markets

21. Cedar Hills Project, North Dakota
HPAI Modeling:
100 sections
API gravity ~30, sweet crude
Carbonate Formation, 8500’ TVD
4 feet Upper, 5 feet Lower
Primary recovery from rock & fluid expansion
GOR ~ 350 SCF/STB

22. Cedar Hills Project, North Dakota
Field Development
Initial (1995 – 1998)
Open-hole horizontal well completion
640 acre well spacing – 84 producers
Primary Recovery
Subsequent (2001 – 2004)
Infill drilling of injection wells
320 acre well spacing – 84 producers; 66 injectors; 150 total
High Pressure Air Injection (HPAI)
Water injection along unit boundary
Current Plan (2005 – 2009)
Three drilling rigs active
28 horizontal extensions
109 new horizontal infill wells
160 acre well spacing development
Hybrid air and water injection

23. Cedar Hills Project, North Dakota: Historical Oil Rate & Well Count

24. Cedar Hills Project, North Dakota: Prediction Capability

25. Challenges & Opportunities
Chemical flooding seems to be the most feasible EOR method for Argentinean reservoirs. Combined with waterflooding optimization these strategies can be implemented in a reasonable period of time
Develop an inventory of CO2 sources in Argentina and evaluate its distance to oil reservoirs candidates for this EOR method
CO2 availability may arrive to late (depleted an watered out reservoirs) making difficult project economics
CO2 volumes required in EOR projects are small compared to CO2 volumes emitted by power plants. The economics of CO2 - EOR are based on CO2 purchase / recycle strategies
If EOR expansion is materialized , staffing and availability of large volume of chemicals, among others, may represent key challenges for large scale applications
Is HPAI and other thermal methods viable in Argentina?