1. Beef Cattle Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock University of Georgia Florida Cattlemen’s Institute January 26, 2012

2. Overview Recent Trends Outlook for 2012 and beyond Marketing Alternatives

3. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 2010

4. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

5. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

6. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

7. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

8. 5 THINGS SHAPING MARKETS TODAY AND FOR 2012

12. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS 2011 Beef Cow Slaughter Ca. 3.8 million

13. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

14. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

17. Source: DTN/Telvent

18. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS

19. OUTLOOK FOR 2012 AND BEYOND What can we expect this year and next?

20. BEEF COWS THAT HAVE CALVED JANUARY 1, 2011 (1000 Head) Alaska Hawaii US Total Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

21. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

22. Declining cow numbers reflect lack of profitability in the sector

23. Meat supplies were slightly larger in 2011 but will be lower in 2012 Source: USDA-WASDE, January 2012 Report

24. Tight Stocks Since 1995 in Feed Crops Despite Large Crops US Corn Supply and Demand

25. Economic (Demand)Outlook Positives – Low interest rates – Little inflation pressure – Generally strong corporate balance sheets – Recently improving hiring prospects Negatives – Uncertainty over European situation – Federal debt/deficit – Political uncertainty

26. Projected Prices 2011 and Beyond Source: USDA, LMIC and UGA

27. INPUTS, PROFITS AND RISK MANAGEMENT FOR 2012

28. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

29. Don’t look for fertilizer prices to go down

30. Feedstuffs will be higher also

31. Cost of production will be higher but should be manageable for most Range of Expected Prices

32. There are opportunities to manage risk

33. Beef Cattle Outlook Summary Fewer cows = less beef -less competing meats +slowly improving economy Higher Prices in 2011

34. Beef Cattle Outlook R. Curt Lacy, Ph.D. Extension Economist-Livestock www.secattleadvisor.com

35. Can we produce enough beef?