1. 1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey: President Rotary Club of Norwich District 1080 Environment Officer Rotary Club of Loddon Vale: November 29 th 2010 The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future: A Rotarians Guide - Hard Choices Ahead

2. 2 Increasing Occurrence of Drought

3. 3 Increasing Occurrence of Flood

4. 4 1979 2003 Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنوات تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 4

5. Is Global Warming natural or man-made? Natural causes Earth’s Orbit Sunspot Activity Volcanic Eruptions Etc. Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960 Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period. BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

6. District 1080: Community Service & Vocations Committee In 2010 we had one of the warmest ever January – February periods. Some people say surely it was coldest for 30 years But why do people not account for the record breaking high temperatures in the tropics, Australia etc? 5 th Warmest -

7. Winter: October – March: Summer: April to September Compared to 1960 – in 2010, –13.1% less heating needed –And 106% more cooling. District 1080 Assembly: Community Service & Vocations Committee Temperature rise in East Anglia over last 50 years is unequivocal Data to end of Oct 2010 2010 is on track to be 2 nd warmest year (GLOBALLY) NASA data suggests it has chance of exceeding 1998

8. Import Gap Whether we believe in Climate Change or not Energy Security is a critical issue for the UK On 13 th Jan 2010: UK Production was only 41%: 14% from storage and 44% imports

9. 9 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Langeled and Balzand Pipe Lines completed Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020 9

10. 10 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 45%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s 10 Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2019.

11. 11 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

12. 12 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

13. 13 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

14. 14 Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up to 10 years to pay back in UK. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

15. 15 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generate just over 5% of UK electricity needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste.

16. 16 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

17. 17 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

18. 18 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south Save 40000 tonnes of CO 2

19. 19 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

20. 20 Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult

21. 21 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

22. Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure. We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.!

23. 23 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

24. 24 Raising Awareness A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year. Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

25. 25 Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much as 9 times. Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness raising When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times

26. Average Domestic Consumption of Electricity kWh% costRank kWh% costRank Norwich3,53579%6Breckland5,028112%312 Cambridge4,05090%80East Cambridgeshire5,118114%326 Peterborough4,22294%116Forest Heath5,174116%336 Ipswich4,34997%159Babergh5,252117%343 Waveney4,41799%181South Norfolk5,347119%358 Broadland4,618103%231Suffolk Coastal5,371120%360 North Hertfordshire 4,645104%240 South Cambridgeshire 5,498123%374 Huntingdon4,655104%243North Norfolk5,641126%385 Great Yarmouth4,699105%252Mid Suffolk5,723128%390 St Edmundsbury4,869109%280 King's Lynn and West Norfolk 5,731128%393 Fenland4,899109%287Uttlesford5,884131%396 Consumption of Local Authority Districts in 1090, % of average cost of electricity bills compared to National Average Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities In Oxford average household emits 2.24 tonnes of CO 2 In South Oxfordshire 3.09 tonnes of CO 2 District 1080 Community Service & Vocations Committee kWh%costRank Oxford4,15393%99 Slough4,42899%184 Bracknell Forest4,594103%225 Reading4,727106%258 Runnymede4,748106%261 Cherwell4,922110%294 Wokingham4,981111%305 Wycombe5,173116%335 Windsor and Maidenhead5,291118%349 West Oxfordshire5,605125%381 West Berkshire5,695127%388 South Bucks5,721128%389 South Oxfordshire5,724128%392 kWh Norwich3,535 North East3,805 Yorkshire4,080 Wales4,132 Greater London4,220 North West4,236 East Midlands4,378 West Midlands4,427 UK Average4,478 East of England4,775 South East4,791 South West4,810 Scotland4,966 District 10804,942 District 10905,059

27. 27 Pilot Lights £9 per week Pilot lights off Pilot Lights turned off during week District 1080 Community Service & Vocations Committee Awareness Raising and Good Record Keeping results in significant savings St Paul’s Church, Tuckswood Heated by 3 warm air heaters New Strategy: pilot lights off throughout summer and used strategically in winter resulted in an annual saving of: 5400 kWh of gas; 1030 kg of CO 2 ; and a monetary saving of £260 Or a percentage saving of 38%

28. 28 Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 825 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs

29. 29 Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic Photovoltaic cells are expensive, but integration of ideas is needed. Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. The New Feed In Tariff form April 1 st will make things more attractive. 41p per unit generated – an extra 3p if exported. But those who have installed PV will get the benefit from increased payments for electricity by those who have not.

30. Which can spread the message Engage with Schools Dispel myths Use simple messages that people understand - often monetary values mean more Think about our own actions. –Tumble drying – once a week amounts to £25 a year Can we car share when going to District Council? –Four people travelled separately from North Norfolk to District 1080 Assembly. They would have emitted and extra 75kg CO 2 extra compared to travelling together at a cost of £30 extra in fuel. Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon reduction in the UK. Energy Security will increasingly affect us in next 10 years Global warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the planet in the developing world in the next 10 years Addressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also help with Global Warming Otherwise the Young will suffer during their life times. We in Rotary have the resources to work with the Young to combat the challenges facing us. Rotary is a Community

31. 31 1.33 billion people 0.94 billion people Raw materials 1.03 billion people Products : 478 Mtonnes CO 2 increase in 3 years Aid & Education The Unbalanced Triangular Trade Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO 2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years Water issues are equally important. Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of water

32. Recycling Opportunities On sale for £2-50 per pack or special offer today -- 5 packs for £10. All profit goes to Rotary Foundation Look out for recycling opportunities which also make money. Save paper & reduce landfill Promotes Rotary Raises funds for Foundation District 1080 Community Service & Vocations Committee

33. Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher “ If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.” And Finally Engage with the Local Community / Schools? –To promote awareness –To Join together to get discounts on sustainable projects Share a remote reading meter around your club to help members/local community cut their energy consumption, improve energy security, cut carbon emissions and save money? Is there merit in organising a District Workshop on Environmental Issues? e.g. –raising awareness where the individual can save money? –Providing a sustainable and energy secure future for our children –Engaging with the community to protect the environment. What could Rotary Do?