1. 1 Census Evaluation in Kenya By M.G. Obudho & J. K. Bore Kenya National Bureau of Statistics

2. 2 History of Census in Kenya 7 censuses including the 1948 and 1962 Post Independence Censuses: 1969, 1979,1989,1999 & 2009 Census Night maintained as 24/25 th August Success of consistencies attributed to Gvt commitment and funding

3. 3 History of Census Evaluation First PES attempt was after 1989 Census, but was not implemented Second attempt was made in 2000, after 1999 census The 2000 PES was conducted but was not conclusively finalized The next PES is scheduled for November 2009 to evaluate the August, 2009 Census

4. 4 Kenya 2000 PES Main objectives were to evaluate the coverage and error rates for 1999 Kenya Population and Housing census Covered 7 out the 8 provinces in Kenya. North Eastern Province (2% of Kenyan pop) was not covered due to nomadic nature)

5. 5 Design for 2000 PES Domains of estimation: National, Urban,Rural and 7 provinces A single stage stratified cluster sample design Stratification by province and urban/rural Used the EAs as PSUs from the cartographic mapping done prior to the 1999 Census All households within the sampled EA were covered Sample size of 500 EAs out of the 62,000 EAs realized

6. 6 Sample distribution for 2000 PES SerialProvinceSample EAs 1Nairobi60 2Central78 3Coast50 4Eastern80 5Nyanza80 6Rift Valley94 7Western58 Total500

7. 7 Personnel for 2000 PES The Central Bureau of Statistics, CBS (presently Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, KNBS) conducted the exercise The technical officers from the Bureau HQs who were key in census managed PES

8. 8 Personnel for 2000 PES cont…. Supervisors were chosen from those who worked well in census Enumerators were picked from those who excelled in census & new ones

9. 9 RESULTS OF 2000 PES Though not fully concluded, the results were still used to adjust the census results Vital lessons were learnt from it to inform future similar exercises

10. 10 Challenges in 2000 PES Lack of independence for PES and census personnel Lack of full integration of PES and census in terms of planning and funding Lack of technical capacity at the Bureau to handle the PES PES was done six months after census which led to low match rate & memory recall Manual matching was used and was very tedious and slow

11. 11 Plan for the 2009 PES The next PES is scheduled for November 2009 to evaluate 2009 census Pilot PES will be conducted a month prior to PES Capture by scanning the names of census respondents in the PES sampled EAs

12. 12 Objectives of 2009 PES Quantitatively evaluate accuracy of the census in terms of coverage and content error at the national, urban/rural and provincial levels. Provide, if necessary, concrete statistical basis for adjustment of the census data Act as a basis to provide and document lessons learnt for improving and implementing future censuses and surveys. Provide information on erroneous enumeration and omissions during census enumeration Enable KNBS staff to gain experience and enhance skills in census evaluation

13. 13 The proposed Design for 2009 PES Sample size was calculated based on: - achieving a CV of 5% at province level - a census omission rate of 5% - a 10% adjustment for non-response

14. 14 Design 2009 PES cont……. Cover all the country’s 8 provinces A stratified single stage cluster sampling design Stratification by provinces Sampling of EAs by PPS from about 96,000 EAs realized in 2009 census A total of 298 EAs are targeted An equal allocation to all provinces made

15. 15 Design 2009 PES cont……. On the design, two other options are being explored In those options we may oversample the ASAL areas Availability of funds will be the main determining factor for implementing any of these two other options

16. 16 Sample distribution for 2009 PES SRNProvince Sample (Pop) Pop per Hh Sampling Rate (Hhlds) Sample EAs 1Nairobi 16,7203.30.5151 2Central 16,7204.00.3542 3Coast 16,7204.70.4936 4Eastern 16,7204.80.2735 5North Eastern 16,7206.51.2026 6Nyanza 16,7204.50.2937 7Rift Valley 16,7204.70.1736 8Western 16,7204.80.3635 Total133,7604.50.31298

17. 17 Matching Computer matching and supplemented with the manual one will be employed Working closely with the US Census Bureau to identify the computer program

18. 18 Concerns If PES results suggests call for adjusting census figures downwards for a region, how do you deal with the wrath of the politicians from the affected areas? If the PES results are not correct then any action to adjust census figures is dangerous; how do we safeguard against getting misleading results?

19. 19 Ahsante Sana! Thank You!