1. Voting Behavior, campaigns, and Elections

2. The Modern Campaign Machine
Over the past 50 years, campaigning for public office has changed dramatically
Modern Campaign Machine:
Campaigns are impersonal
Campaigns are less party-centered and more candidate-centered
Rising cost of campaigns
Image-centered campaign
Consultant-centered campaign

3. Features of Consultant-Centered Campaign
Raising contributions
Seeking endorsements of organized groups
Arranging for the candidate to speak at meetings or organized groups
Formation of groups for grass roots neighborhood support
Extensive advertising campaign

4. Campaign Staff
Campaign consultant: paid professional who specializes in the overall management of political campaigns or a central aspect of a campaign (James Carville and Paula Begala)
Campaign manager: professional who oversees much of the day-to-day affairs of a campaign; responsible for strategic and managerial tasks, from fund-raising to staffing
Fund-raising consultant
Media consultant

5. How American Elections Work
Elections socialize and institutionalize political activity
Three types of elections:
Select party nominees (primary elections)
Select officeholders (general elections)
Select options on specific policies
Referendum: state-level method of direct legislation that gives voters a chance to approve proposed legislation or constitutional amendment
Initiative petition: process permitted in some states whereby voters may put proposed changes in the state constitution to a vote, given a sufficient number of signatures

6. A Tale of Three Elections
1800: The First Electoral Transition of Power
No primaries, no conventions, no speeches
Newspapers were very partisan.
Campaigns focused not on voters but on state legislatures who chose electors.
After many votes in the House, the office of the presidency was transferred to Jefferson peacefully.

7. The Polarizing presidency
2004: The Ratification of a Polarizing Presidency
George W. Bush became the fourth Republican since McKinley to win a second term.
The intensity of the election was in part due to the controversy of the 2000 election.
The 2004 campaign was characterized by negative campaigning.
Leadership of the War on Terrorism and “moral values” proved to be key issues.

8. Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice
Suffrage: the legal right to vote
Extended to African Americans by the 15th Amendment
Extended to Women by the 19th Amendment
Extended to people over 18 years of age by the 26th Amendment

10. Not-Voting as Rational Choice?
U.S. has low voter turnout
Rational abstention thesis: theory that some individuals decide the cost of voting exceed the benefits
Downs: it is rational to not vote
Those who see clear differences between parties are likely to vote.
If indifferent, then one may rationally abstain from voting.
Political Efficacy: the belief that one’s political participation really matters
Civic Duty: the belief that in order to support democratic government, a citizen should always vote

11. Does Low Turnout Matter?
Some argue it is a not a critical problem
Based on belief that preferences of nonvoters are not much different from those who do vote
So…results would be the same regardless
Nonvoting is voluntary
Nonvoting driven by acceptance of the status quo
Others believe it is a problem
Voters do not represent nonvoters
Social make-up and attitudes of nonvoters today are significantly different from those of voters
Tend to be low income, younger, blue collar, less educated and more heavily minority

12. Voter Turnout Over time
From Government in America, 13th edition.

13. Voting Behavior Conventional political participation
Political participation that attempts to influence the political process through well- accepted, often moderate forms of persuasion
Unconventional political participation
Political participation that attempts to influence the political process through unusual or extreme measures, such as protests, boycotts, and picketing

14. Voter Registration Registering To Vote
Voter Registration: a system adopted by the states that requires voters to register well in advance of the election day
Registration procedures differ by state.
Motor Voter Act: passed in 1993, requires states to permit people to register to vote when they apply for their driver’s license

15. Patterns in Voter Turnout
Turnout: the proportion of the voting-age public that votes
40% of the eligible adult population votes
25% are occasional voters
35% rarely vote
Education: Voters tend to be more educated
Income: More voters have higher incomes
Age: Younger people vote less
Gender: Women vote at the same rate or slightly higher rate than men
Race and Ethnicity:
Whites vote more regularly than African Americans – related to income and educational differences in the two groups
Hispanics vote less than African Americans
Have potential to wield much influence given their increasing size
Interest in politics: Those interested in politics vote more

17. Why Is Voter Turnout So Low?
Too Busy
Difficulty of Registration
Difficulty of Absentee Voting
Number of Elections
Voter Attitudes
Weakened Influence of Political Parties

19. 2004 Voter Turnout

20. Patterns in Vote Choice
Party Identification
Most powerful predictor voter behavior
Ticket-splitting: voting for candidates of different parties for various offices in the same election
Race and Ethnicity
Whites increased tendency to vote Republican
African Americans vote overwhelmingly for Democrats
Hispanics also tend to identify with and vote for Democrats
Kerry 53 percent; Bush 44 percent
Asian Americans less monolithic
Women today more likely to support Democratic candidates
Gender gap varies by election
Poor vote more often for Democrats; wealthier for Republicans
Ideology related closely to vote choice
Conservatives for Republicans
Liberals for Democrats
Issues
Retrospective judgment
Prospective judgment
Retrospective judgment
A voter’s evaluation of the performance of the party in power
Prospective judgment
A voter’s evaluation of a candidate based on what he or she pledges to do about an issue if elected
Three requirements for prospective voting:
Voters must have an opinion on an issue
Voters must have an idea of what action, if any, the government is taking on the issue
Voters must see a difference between the two parties on the issue.

21. Efforts to Improve Voter Turnout
Easier Registration and Absentee Voting
Make Election Day a Holiday
Strengthen Parties
Other suggestions
Holding fewer elections
Proportional representation system for congressional elections
Saturday or Sunday election day
Making voting mandatory
Tax credits
Election weeks rather than election days
Internet voting

22. Mandate and Elections Mandate Theory of Elections
The idea that the winning candidate has a mandate from the people to carry out his or her platforms and politics
Politicians like the theory better than political scientists do.

23. Party Identification and Elections
People still generally vote for a party they agree with.
With the rise of candidate-centered politics, parties’ hold on voters declined in the 1960s and 1970s.
Many more voters make an individual voting decision and are up for grabs each election, (so- called floating voters).

24. Comparing Voting Behavior

25. Evaluating Political Candidates
Candidate Evaluations: How Americans See the Candidates
Candidates want a good visual image.
Especially on dimensions of integrity, reliability, and competence
Personality plays a role in vote choice, especially if a candidate is perceived to be incompetent or dishonest.

26. How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions
Policy Voting
Basing your vote choice on issue preferences and where the candidates stand on policy issues
Policy voting may occur if :
Voters know where they and the candidates stand on issues and see differences between candidates
Unlikely to occur because:
Candidates can be ambiguous on the issues.
Media tend to focus on the “horse race” not issues.
Today candidates are forced to take a clear stand in the party primaries increasing chances for policy voting.

27. Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior
Democracy and Elections
The greater the policy differences between candidates, the more likely voters will be able to steer government policy by their choices.
Unlikely—candidates do not always clarify issues
Candidates who vow to continue popular policies are more likely to win elections.
Retrospective voting: voters cast a vote based on what a candidate has done for them lately
Those who feel worse off are likely to vote against incumbents.
Bad economies make politicians nervous.

28. Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior
Elections and the Scope of Government
Elections generally support government policies and power.
Voters feel they are sending a message to government to accomplish something
Thus, the government expands to fill the needs of the voters.

29. Summary Voters make two basic decisions at election time:
Whether to vote
Who to vote for
Party identification, candidate evaluations, and policy positions drive vote choice.
Elections are fundamental to a democracy.