1. Clean, Affordable Decentralized Energy Options -- Burma Chris Greacen Palang Thai MEE-Net Seminar on Energy in Burma 24 Jan 2011 Chiang Mai

2. Outline Intro to energy –Energy history –World energy situation –Renewable energy Burma –Default scenarios –For revenue: Mega dams, gas exports –For electrification: dam & diesel generation, likely power imports from Thailand Addressing the Thai side –Removing bias in load forecasting –Consider clean, decentralized options on level playing field Addressing the Burma side –Some clean community energy options

3. Outline Intro to world energy –Energy history –World energy situation Burma energy situation –Energy exports to Thailand –Energy for domestic use Renewable energy –For village-scale applications –For sale to main grid Addressing the Burma side –Some clean community energy options

4. History of Human Energy Use Energy sourceYears in useComment Solar energy + biomass~ 2,000,000Humans have relied on energy from sun & plants since species began Animal power~ 7,500Animals used for riding, hauling, and cultivation Water and wind power~ 2,500Travel by sail, wind and water used for pumping, mechanical tasks Steam engine / coal~ 250Industrial Revolution powered by steam engines, abundant coal Electric motors / generators / grid ~ 125Edison Pearl St Station, 1882; Tesla AC motor/generator 1890s Internal combustion engine / oil ~ 125Pennsylvania oil 1859; Benz/Otto ICE vehicle 1885; Ford Model T 1908 Nuclear power~ 50Product of nuclear weapons development in US, USSR Modern renewables / low- carbon sources ~ 25California, Denmark, Germany, China

5. Edison Pearl Street Station - first electric distribution system, 1882 China, water-powered trip hammer, Han Dynasty CA 200 BC Watt steam engine ca. 1775Benz automobile ca. 1886 Oil well, Pennsylvania, 1861

6. The rise of global dependence on fossil fuels World primary energy supply, 1850-2000 Hydro+ means hydropower plus other renewables besides biomass Coal drove growth 1850-1950; oil & gas drove it (2x faster) 1950-2000

7. In the USA…

8. Current world energy system - the positive Cheap Convenient Mature technologies

9. oil dependence –price volatility, developing country debt, resource conflict carbon emissions –climate change growth in consumption Unequal distribution –of consumption and impacts Current world energy system - the negative

10. Current Energy System in a Nutshell Those “upwind, upstream, and uptime” enjoy convenient services at artificially low prices. Those “downwind, downstream, and downtime” face the consequences

11. Where we’re at progress is slow toward alternatives –fossil fuels 90% in 1980, 86% in 2005 change is difficult to achieve –consumption habits, prices don’t reflect externalities, vested interests time is short for transforming the system –already happening: climate change, oil wars, energy poverty, debt crises Masters & Randolph, 2008

12. No Technological “Silver Bullet” oil and gas: not enough resources coal:not enough atmosphere biomass:not enough land hydropower & wind:not enough sites nuclear fission:too unforgiving nuclear fusion:too difficult Solar :too expensive hydrogen:not a “source”: needs energy to produce it end-use efficiency:needs end-users who are paying attention From John P. Holdren, “The Energy Innovation Imperative,” 2006

13. Elements of a solution Sustainable energy technologies Change markets Change consumption behavior Change policies Change institutions

14. Sustainable energy technologies Renewable Energy: making use of flows of energy that are naturally replaced (wind, sun, biomass)

15. Problems for renewables Cost Technical maturity Technical fit Geographic mismatch Limits to renewability

16. World Wind Energy Growth Source: World Wind Energy Association

18. World Biofuel Growth

19. WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1970-2004 SOURCE: AER 2006

20. Energy situation in Burma (?) Energy shortages –blackouts, fuel rationing High energy costs High human suffering from impacts of large energy projects –Large hydro –Gas Unequal distribution of energy, of impacts

21. Big hydro – for export to Thailand & domestic use Used to make: –6% of Thailand’s electricity, –60% of Burma’s electricity (most dams are in ethnic minority areas) Consensus: no more big dams will be built in Thailand. –Limited sites left in Thailand –Strong environmental opposition… –“Build in Burma instead!!!” Environmental issues –Inundation –Fish killed –Global warming –Changes in temperature / sediment loading / flow regime Can be cheap –If reasonably close to load centers

22. Tasang 7,000 MW Upper Salween 4,000 MW Lower Salween 500 MW Hut Gyi 1,200 MW Yawatit 600 MW Tanaosri 720 MW Planned megadams to export electricity to Thailand

23. Natural gas Used to make 71% of Thailand’s electricity (among highest in world) –1/3 of gas used in Thailand comes from Burma –20% of our (Thai) electricity bills pay for Burmese gas Single largest source of revenue to Burmese military government –Accounts for fully half of Burma’s exports in 2006 –US$2.16 billion to junta from Thailand. –Total, Chevron, PTTEP, Petronas, Nippon Oil, etc. Source: Burma: Foreign Investment Finances Regime. Human Rights Watch. 2007. www.hrw.org/english/docs/2007/10/01/bu rma16995.htm www.hrw.org/english/docs/2007/10/01/bu rma16995.htm

24. Rural electrification - Burma In 2008, 42.8 Million of Burma’s 58.82 million population lived without electricity. Goal: electrification rates to 60% by 2020.

25. Diesel

26. Sell electricity to Thailand cheap, buy back expensive 2 baht/kWh 8 baht/kWh 1 baht/kWh

27. Can we imagine something different?

28. Saving electricity is cheaper than generating it Source: The World Bank (1993) Demand Side Management (saving electricity) Actual 10-year DSM average cost!!! 1.5

29. The Arun-3 story Planned 201 MW hydro in Nepal Sell electricity to India, rural electrification Nepalese NGOs and small business: “Micro-hydropower cheaper, better for local economy” World Bank pulled out of project, project cancelled 10 years later…the Nepali power system has seen the addition of: –over a 1/3 more capacity than the Arun-3 –at ½ the cost –In ½ the time it would have taken to complete Arun-3

30. Renewable energy fuels and uses End use ElectricityMech power / pumping Water heating CookingTransportation TechnologyOff-gridOn-grid BiomassGasifier●●● Biogas●●●● Steam turbine ● Direct combustion ●● Biodiesel or ethanol ●●● Micro- hydro ●●● Solar●●●●● Wind●●●

31. 1. Village and household scale 2. National scale (connecting to national grid)

32. Biodiesel

33. Efficient Charcoal

34. Micro-hydroelectricity Source: Inversin, A. R. (1986). Micro-Hydropower Sourcebook.

38. Hydraulic ram pump www.agr.gc.ca

39. Hydraulic ram pump

40. Community micro-hydro Mae Kam Pong village, Chiang Mai 1x40 kW; 2x20 kW Community cooperative Sells electricity to the national grid

43. Solar cooking

44. replace LED lighting and 0.5-5W solar panels, coupled with microfinance energy loans, can end kerosene lighting Barefoot Power is a social enterprise delivering such solutions

45. Solar home systems 25,000 baht per household system 120 watts Electricity for 2 lights + TV

46. Thai solar home systems 203,000 solar home systems Sustainability challenge

47. Ruggedized solar electric systems built by Karen medics in 3-5 day hands-on trainings 7 trainings (2003-2007) >90 medics trained 35 clinics

49. Solar for computer training centers in seven Karen refugee camps 1 kW PV hybrid with diesel generator Each powers 12 computers

50. Bangkok Solar 1 MW PV Project size: 1 MW Uses self-manufactured a-Si

51. Solar water heating

53. Biogas for cooking Katchin State, Burma http://www.palangthai.org/en/bsep

54. Biogas from Pig Farms Reduces air and water pollution Produces fertilizer Produces electricity 8 x 70 kW generator Ratchaburi

55. Biogas from Pig Farms

56. Uses waste water from cassava to make methane Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3 MW of electricity 3 x 1 MW gas generators Korat Waste to Energy – biogas … an early Thai VSPP project

57. Biomass Gasification Rice mill in Nakorn Sawan 400 kW

58. Gasifier electricity from wood

59. Rice husk-fired power plant 9.8 MW Roi Et, Thailand

61. Technical regulations: Allowable voltage, frequency, THD variations Protective relays – 1-line diagrams for all cases: Induction Synchronous Inverters Single/multiple Connecting at different voltage levels (LV or MV) Communication channels Commercial regulations: Definitions of renewable energy, and efficient cogeneration Cost allocation Principle of standardized tariff determination Invoicing and payment arrangements Arbitration $ + Standardized Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)

62. Evolution of Thai VSPP regulations 2002 – VSPP regulations drafted, approved by Cabinet – Up to 1 MW export, renewables only – Tariffs set at avoided cost (bulk supply tariff + FT) 2006 – Up to 10 MW export, renewables + cogeneration – Feed-in tariff “adder” – If > 1 MW then utility only pays for 98% of energy 2009 – Tariff adder increase, more for projects that offset diesel http://www.eppo.go.th/power/vspp-eng/http://www.eppo.go.th/power/vspp-eng/ for English version of regulations, and model PPA

63. Thai VSPP feed-in tariff adders Assumes exchange rate 1 Thai baht = 0.029762 U.S. dollars FuelAdderAdditional for diesel offsetting areas Additional for 3 southern provinces Years effective Biomass Capacity <= 1 MW $ 0.015 $ 0.030 7 Capacity > 1 MW $ 0.009 $ 0.030 7 Biogas <= 1 MW $ 0.015 $ 0.030 7 > 1 MW $ 0.009 $ 0.030 7 Waste (community waste, non-hazardous industrial and not organic matter) Fermentation $ 0.074 $ 0.030 7 Thermal process $ 0.104 $ 0.030 7 Wind <= 50 kW $ 0.134 $ 0.045 10 > 50 kW $ 0.104 $ 0.045 10 Micro-hydro 50 kW - <200 kW $ 0.024 $ 0.030 7 <50 kW $ 0.045 $ 0.030 7 Solar $ 0.238 $ 0.045 10 Tariff = adder(s) + bulk supply tariff + FT charge Biomass tariff = $0.009 + $0.049 + $0.027 = $0.085/kWh

64. July 2010 Thailand VSPP Status 847 MW online PPAs signed for additional 4283 MW

65. Decentralized generation Decentralized generation: generation of electricity near where it is used

66. Energy efficient end-use Solar Wind power Biomass Customers Power plant Old way New way Power plant Biomass

68. Energy waste in a typical pumping system

69. Sankey Energy Flow Diagram

70. Cogeneration Combined Heat and Power (CHP)

72. Thank you For more information, please contact chris@palangthai.org chris@palangthai.org This presentation available at: www.palangthai.org/docs