1. A Significant Cigarette Tax Rate Increase in Kansas Would Produce a Large, Sustained Increase in State Tobacco Tax Revenues Frank J. Chaloupka, Distinguished Professor, Department of Economics Director, Health Policy Center, University of Illinois at Chicago March 5, 2015

2. Cigarette and other tobacco tax increases lead to significant reductions in tobacco use and its health and economic consequences

3. Cigarette Tax Revenue Economic Report Frank J. Chaloupka Cigarette Prices and Cigarette Sales Kansas, 1966-2013, Inflation Adjusted Sources: Tax Burden on Tobacco, 2014; Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Authors’ Calculations

4. Cigarette Tax Revenue Economic Report Frank J. Chaloupka Cigarette Prices and Adult Smoking Kansas, 1995-2010, Inflation Adjusted Sources: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; Tax Burden on Tobacco, 2013; Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Authors’ Calculations

5. Cigarette Tax Revenue Economic Report Frank J. Chaloupka Cigarette Prices and Youth Smoking Kansas, 2005-2013, Inflation Adjusted Sources: Youth Risk Behavior Survey; Tax Burden on Tobacco, 2013; Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Authors’ Calculations

6. Cigarette and other tobacco tax revenues are much more predictable and stable than many other state revenues

7. Cigarette Tax and Tax Revenues Wisconsin, 1965-2014 Sources: Tax Burden on Tobacco, 2013, and Authors’ Calculations

8. Cigarette Tax and Tax Revenues Arizona, 1965-2014 Sources: Tax Burden on Tobacco, 2013, and Authors’ Calculations

9. Kansas’ Past Experience with Cigarette Tax Increases

10. Cigarette Tax and Tax Revenues Kansas, 1965-2014 Sources: Tax Burden on Tobacco, 2014, and Authors’ Calculations

11. Cigarette Tax and Tax Revenues Florida, 1965-2014 Sources: Tax Burden on Tobacco, 2013, and Authors’ Calculations

12. Cigarette Tax and Tax Revenues Kansas & Neighboring States, FY2002 & FY2004 Sources: Tax Burden on Tobacco, 2013

13. Cigarette Tax and Tax Revenues Missouri & Neighboring States, FY2002 & FY2004 Notes: Tax increases include: KS, 24 to 79 cents/pack; NE, 34 to 64 cents/pack; TN, 13 to 20 cents/pack; AR, 34 to 59 cents/pack; and IL 58 to 98 cents/pack. Source: Tax Burden on Tobacco, 2013

14. What Could Kansas Expect From a Tobacco Tax Increase

15. Estimated Future Cigarette Tax Revenues Kansas Sources: Tax Burden on Tobacco, 2013 and Authors’ Calculations

16. Smoking declines produce enormous public benefits. A $1.50 per pack cigarette tax increase in Kansas will: Prevent 25,400 youth from becoming smokers Encourage 25,800 adult smokers to quit Prevent 14,900 future deaths from smoking Save $1.0 billion in future health care costs

17. Kansas can implement other strategies to increase revenues: Regularly increase tobacco tax rates Tax other tobacco products rates at equivalent rates Implement initiatives such as high-tech tax stamps to prevent cigarette smuggling and other tax evasion