1. Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU U.S. Department of Commerce 1 The U.S. Census Bureau’s 2010 Demographic Analysis Estimates: Incorporation of Data from Mexico’s 2010 Census Melissa Scopilliti Chief, Net International Migration Branch Population Division U.S. Census Bureau

2. Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU U.S. Department of Commerce Demographic Analysis Compared to Survey-Based Estimates of Coverage The U.S. Census Bureau has historically relied on two methods to measure coverage in the decennial census 1) Demographic analysis (DA) –Macro (national) level –Comparisons between estimates and census counts 2) Post-enumeration survey (PES) –Micro level –Case-by-case record linkage –In 2010, demographic analysis sex ratios were used to correct for correlation bias 2

3. Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU U.S. Department of Commerce Purpose of the Demographic Analysis Program at the U.S. Census Bureau Produce estimates of the national population for comparison with decennial census counts –Estimates are produced by age, sex, and race Provide sex ratios to the post-enumeration survey program 3

4. Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU U.S. Department of Commerce 2010 Demographic Analysis Releases Five series of estimates were released to the public in December 2010 (prior to the release of 2010 Census counts) –Different data and methods were used across the series A revised middle-series of estimates was released in May 2012 that incorporated more recent data and information from Mexico’s 2010 Census 4

5. Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU U.S. Department of Commerce 5 Development of the 2010 DA Estimates

6. 6 Difference Between Demographic Analysis Estimates and the Census Enumeration (Numbers in millions)

7. Census Counts and Demographic Analysis Range of Estimates: 2010 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20002005 Birth Cohort 1940 1935 1930 2010 7

8. 8 Cumulative Total Net International Migration, 1945-2010 (Numbers in millions)

9. 9 Components of Net International Migration: 2000 to 2010 For 2010 Demographic Analysis, international migration research focused primarily on the 2000 to 2010 time period –Prior demographic analysis estimates were used for 1945 to 2000 2000 to 2010 international migration components: –Foreign-born immigration –Foreign-born emigration –Net native migration –Migration between Puerto Rico and the United States

10. Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU U.S. Department of Commerce Foreign-Born Immigration Response to a survey question asking “Where did you live one year ago?” Response to a survey question asking “When did you come to live in the United States?” Alternative assumptions: –Margin of error around the survey-based estimates –Alternative assumptions of representation of the foreign-born population in the survey 10

11. Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU U.S. Department of Commerce Residual method based on data from life tables, an annual survey, and Census 2000 Rates of emigration estimated by period of entry to the United States –Rates were applied to the foreign-born population in the survey to develop annual estimates of emigration Alternative assumptions: –Margin of error around the survey-based estimates using 90-percent confidence intervals to develop high and low estimates of emigration 11 Foreign-Born Emigration

12. 12 Foreign-Born Emigration (Revised) Revised middle series was released in 2012 –Included the use of data that was not available when the original series were released and methodological improvements Foreign-born emigration revision –Substantial migration flow between the United States and Mexico –Data from Mexico’s 2010 Census suggested higher levels of emigration from the United States to Mexico from 2005 to 2010 than in the original demographic analysis series –The revised series incorporated information from Mexico’s 2010 Census

13. Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU U.S. Department of Commerce 13 Demographic Analysis Sex Ratios: 1990, 2000, and 2010 13

14. Sex Ratios: Mexico’s 2010 Census (Born in Mexico, Lived in the United States in 2005) and 2010 DA Updated Middle Series (2005-2010 Foreign-Born Emigration to Mexico) Prior to Incorporation of Data from the Mexico Census 14

15. 15 Sex Ratios from Census 2010 and the Original and Revised 2010 DA Series

16. Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU U.S. Department of Commerce Future Research on International Migration Continue to evaluate the data and methods for estimating migration in our demographic analysis and annual postcensal population estimate programs. Update estimates of international migration for the post-2010 period. Continue to collaborate with colleagues in Mexico. 16

17. Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU U.S. Department of Commerce 17 Contact Information Melissa Scopilliti: Melissa.Scopilliti@census.govMelissa.Scopilliti@census.gov For more information on demographic analysis visit www.census.gov Subjects A to Z: Demographic Analysis