1. U.S. Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School The U.S. Army’s Special Operations Center of Excellence The overall classification of this brief is: UNCLASSFIED Briefer: Type of Brief: Date: Version: NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF SGT Brian MacLean Information Brief 24 March 2015 Socialist Republic of Vietnam

2. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Purpose: To present a PMESII-PT Analysis of Vietnam Agenda –PMESII-PT –Relevance to NSS –Questions and Comments Purpose and Agenda

3. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Indo-China Peninsula About the size of Arizona Borders 3 countries 3,000 km Coastline Claim Spratly Islands -300nm Red River & Mekong River Deltas 1/3 plains & 2/3 Mountainous Land rich in agriculture and natural recourses with strategic geographical location Weather- tropical year around Physical

4. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Physical Red River & Mekong River Deltas Annamite Cordillera Mountian Range Sustained Vietnamese for 2,000 years 2 harvest of rice a year 17,000 Km of waterways Central Highlands Rich in Mineral Deposits Natural border Haven for ethnic unrest

5. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Physical Ports, Fishing and Offshore Drilling 300 feet above Sea Level Ring of Fire One of most disastrous-prone 70% of population live near coast Coastline Abundant recourses 300 nm from coast legitimate historical claims So does China Spratly Islands Link

6. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Historical Background Dispersed people who settled in Heart of Red River Valley Formed a unique identity Mongolian/Poly- Indonesian descent Not Chinese 1 st Agricultural Society in East Asia Advanced civilization by 1 st Century Vietnamese

7. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Historical Background 1 st Century – Vietnam conquered by Chinese Han Dynasty 1000 years under the Chinese Empire Significant Chinese influence- respect, dislike, fear 997 AD - Independence Common thread Chinese Conquest

8. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF 1854- French Colonial Rule begins Looking for Alternative trade route to China Recognized Natural Recourses Exploited for next 100 yrs. –Inferior Fostered Vietnamese Resentment Historical Background French Colonialism

9. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Historical Background 1930 - Ho Chi Minh founds the Indochinese Communist Party (ICP). 1945 - Ho Chi Minh announces Vietnam's independence. Ho Chi Minh thought People ready to embrace the Communist Revolution

10. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Historical Background 1946 - 1 st Indo-China War 1954 - Geneva Conference - Vietnam divided at 17th parallel 1957 - Communist Insurgency in the South 1960 - Aid S. Vietnam – Domino Effect 1962 - 12,000 US advisors 1963 - S. Vietnam ruler overthrown by US-backed Military Coup 1964 - Gulf of Tonkin Resolution - America officially enters the war 1973 - “Peace and Honor” – Pull out all troops by March 1976 - Socialist Republic of Vietnam proclaimed

11. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF 500,000 deployed Lost 58,000 Vietnam lost over a million people Devastation of the country Agent Orange MIA Images of War stained on American Conscious Change America’s Society Historical

12. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Political Central Committee - 150 Politburo – 14 Triumvirate – the big 3 Communist Party of Vietnam Vietnam’s People Army State Politics & Government Balance of Powers Constitution Freedoms Elections One-party Authoritarian Government

13. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Political Executive Branch- Triumvirate Nguyen Tan Dung Prime Minister General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong President Truong Tan Sang

14. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Party has no desire to loosen mandate of power –Conservative vs Reformist – Economic Reform –Improve International Relationships Political Outlook – Stable –Improved living standards –Internal Security –General impression Gov’t looks out after people –Pew International Poll – Happiest and most optimistic Censorship Need for Political Reform –Corruption- Government taking seriously –Hints of political in-fighting more so than in their history Political

15. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Pop. 93 million Language Vietnamese, Vietnamese, English(2 nd ), French, Chinese Ethnicity –Viet or Kinh 86% –54 other ethnic groups Montagnards – Mountain People –Hmong Hoa & thai Life Expectancy 72 yrs. Literacy Rate 93% Value Education Social

16. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Religion –Traditional Chinese Confucianism –Traditional Taoism –50% Vietnamese Folk Religion –9% Buddhism –8% Catholic –.5 Protestant Father Land Front –Religion under state control –Register church –Worship how you want, but… Social

17. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Culture –“Laws of Emperor end at the gate of the village” –Most Important event- birth of a child –Parenthood- Goal of one’s life –Ancestral Worship –Value Civility –Deep respect for Superior Status Social 70% Rural

18. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Concerns Ethnic Unrest in Mountainous areas Economic Inequality Religious repression Government Land-grabs in rural areas Drug use – Dramatic increase Drug and Human Trafficking International concern Corruption at Borders Social Golden Triangle

19. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Avid News Consumers –Many Outlets –TV – 97% –Cell phone – 78% –31 million connected to internet Censorship –Say what you want, don’t criticize –Implemented on a daily basis –Ministry of Public security –Internet police/secret police –Reporters without Borders “Internet Enemy” Official retribution –News laws set in place to deal with social media –25 people detained since 2011- Mother sets herself on fire Information

20. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Economics Socialist Market-Oriented Economy 1976- Economy in shambles 1986- Liberal economic Policy of “Doi Moi” or Renovation 1994-US Lifts 30 trade embargo 1995 - US diplomatic relations restored Becomes member of ASEAN 1997- Joined World Trade Organization Today- Transitioning into Industrialized nation 2020- Developed Nation

21. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Economy United States now the largest export market for Vietnamese goods, displacing Japan. Major Exports Rice(#1) Cashews Coffee Tea Oil & Gas Rubber Marine Textiles & shoes

22. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Industry outgrowing Agriculture Major Industries Mineral deposits 70 types bauxite Crude Oil 3 rd Largest 2 offshore fields Hurt by China Natural Gas Self-Sufficient

23. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Infrastructure - Poor Signs of Metropolis & major develepment Hanoi- Manufacturing hub 90 ports Power Plants Telecommunications Largely underdeveloped 50% of extensive road system not paved Gov’t directing budget towards development Impedes investment Infrastructure

24. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Formidable and effective –Russia – Strong defense ties –ASEAN – Proper security relationship Army, Air Force, Navy, Internal Security Force –485,000 Active –5 million reserves –5 million Security Personnel Subversive anti-state activity –Non-state armed groups- 0 –Myanmar Non-state armed groups- 50,000 Defense Industry –Update to Constitution in 2014 Military

25. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Partnering with 25 nations, most western Complying with international norms and law United States –Comprehensive Partnership ensure security between two nations –Easing on military sales band –Discussing mutual beneficial defense Policy Collaboration –Search & Rescue, disaster response, counterterrorism, maritime enforcement International Relations

26. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Critical Ally in Asian Pivot/ Deter Chinese Aggression –Ports 60% of warships to Asian-Pacific by 2020 –Tension over Spratly Islands Persian Gulf of Asian-Pacific Accidental or deliberate confrontation is very possible Support Vietnam Claims of islands- Common foe- China –Good chance Civil Affairs engagement Natural disaster Build Trust Diplomatic solution Vietnam Human Rights –Distrust that has potential to hurt relationship –My Friend is a communist Conclusion

27. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF “…Insisting China upholds international rules & norms…” “Enhance international relationships and promote the integration of U.S Allies…..to advance common security interests in the Maritime domain” NSS

28. UNCLASSFIED NON-OPERATIONAL STUDENT EXERCISE BRIEF Questions and Comments