1. Climate data, Trends and Scenarios in Sri Lanka AS-12 Senaka Basnayake Center for Climate Change Studies (CCCS) Department of Meteorology Colombo Sri Lanka

2. Outline of the Presentation  Meteorological data required  Trend analysis performed  Encountered & anticipated problems of climate scenario development

3. Overall Objectives  Project the climate change scenarios in the coconut and tea growing areas based on the Global Circulation Model results relevant to South Asia.

4. CLIMATE DATA

5. Required climate data Temperature (1961-1990) -Minimum -Maximum -Mean Rainfall (1961-1990) At time resolutions Daily Monthly At spatial resolutions Farm level National NCEP Re-analysis (1961-1990) HISTORICAL DATA

6. Global Circulation Model outputs – 2020, 2050 At time resolutions Daily Monthly At spatial resolutions Regional level FUTURE DATA Required climate data contd.

8. Map of Sri Lanka showing tea and coconut growing area Tea Coconut

13. TREND ANALYSIS

15. TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEA GROWING AREAS

16. TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEA GROWING AREAS contd.

19. TREND ANALYSIS FOR COCONUT GROWING AREAS

20. TREND ANALYSIS FOR COCONUT GROWING AREAS contd.

22. SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT

23. Scenario Development Baseline Climate Dynamical Methods Direct GCM Or interpolated GCM Validation Regenalisation

24. Downscaling in Brief

25. Criteria for selection of Downscaling method 1.Availability 2.Suitability/Feasibility Therefore SDSM has been selected

26. SDSM ( Statistical Downscaling Method) This has an ability to develop climate scenarios at a single-site of daily surface climate variables under current and future climate forcing.

27.  Baseline Climatological data (1961-1990)  NCEP Reanalysis data (1961-1990)  Global Circulation Model (2020 and 2050) Data input for SDSM

28. Problems encountered Lack of computerized data (some data still in hard copies) Downloading of NCEP and GCM from other web sites was also not possible, Because it gives outputs for the whole globe but not for the area which we are interested. Downloading NCEP and GCM data has to be postponed for about two months due to the delay of establishment of Canadian web site on NCEP/GCM data to the area which covers Sri Lanka. These will be made available at http://www.cics.uvic.ca in near future

29. Problems anticipated Since SDSM generates site specific scenarios, spatial interpolations will have to be carried out to get the spatial distribution over a particular area or country GIS/Surfer will be used to overcome this problem

30. Thank You