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PotashCorp.com Yao Manager, Market Research January 2015 Fertilizer Market Update
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This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements often contain words such as “should,” “could,” “expect,” “may,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimates,” “plans” and similar expressions. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; risks and uncertainties related to operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; risks and uncertainties related to our international operations and assets; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; economic and political uncertainty around the world; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; increases in the price or reduced availability of the raw materials that we use; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; timing and impact of capital expenditures; rates of return on, and the risks associated with, our investments and capital expenditures; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; risks related to reputational loss; and earnings, and the decisions of taxing authorities, which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. Forward-looking Statements
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PotashCorp Overview
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Agriculture Market Overview
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1.Crop prices supported in the first half by strong demand, unrest in Ukraine/Russia and delayed US planting. 2.Robust planting and yields in the US led to record corn and soybean production. 3.Global crop stocks increased following two years of above-trend yields, weighing on prices. 4.Significant improvement in livestock economics and healthy ethanol sector margins. 5.Delayed planting in Brazil created some yield risk and could impact Safrinha planting prospects. Strong Global Production Softens Crop Prices World Crop Market Update Source: Bloomberg * Based on corn, soybean and wheat prices (weighted by global consumption). World Crop Price Index*2014 Highlights Price Index (2005 Average = 100)
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2014F refers to the 2014/15 crop year. Stocks-to-Use Ratio Million Tonnes Stocks Rise but Remain Well Below Historical Highs World Grain and Oilseed Supply/Demand Source: USDA
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MT/Hectare Million Hectares Record Production Driven by Acreage Expansion and Strong Yields World Grain and Oilseed Acreage and Yield Harvested Area Change: 2014 vs 5-Year AverageYield
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* Based on corn, soybean and wheat prices (weighted by global consumption). ** Based on urea, DAP and KCl prices (weighted by global consumption). Price Index (2005 Average = 100) Crop and Fertilizer Price Index Source: Bloomberg Price Index (2005 Average = 100) Fertilizer Remains Affordable but Relationship Weaker than First Half of 2014
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Source: USDA, PotashCorp US$/Bushel Margins Reset in 2014 After Multiple Years of Robust Returns US Corn Economics
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Brazilian crop progress and safrinha planted area US crop acreage changes Expect less corn and cotton acreage Potential for more soybean based on current economics Chinese import demand and policy changes Macro factors (FX, oil prices, geopolitical events) 2015 Factors to Watch
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Fertilizer Market Overview
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Percent* Capacity Typically Located Near Low-Cost/High-Quality Raw Material Source World Fertilizer Capacity Percentage by Region * Based on 2013 year-end nameplate capacity. Source: CRU, Fertecon
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Source: Fertilizer Week, PotashCorp Potash Prices Strengthened in 2014 World Potash Market Update US$/tonne 1.Potash prices increased in 2014, particularly in major markets for granular product. 2.Record potash shipments expected, 3.Estimated global operating rates above 90 percent. 4.Producer inventory levels down significantly compared to the beginning of the year. World Potash Prices2014 Highlights
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Million Tonnes KCl World Potash S&D Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, Industry Publications, PotashCorp Record Potash Shipments in 2014
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Source: IPNI, PotashCorp Million Tonnes KCl North American Producers’ Potash Ending Inventory Sharp Decline in Producer Inventories
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Million Tonnes KCl World Potash Shipments by Markets Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp China India L. AmericaOther AsiaN. America Strong Growth in Demand in All Major Potash Markets
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Source: USDOC, Fertecon, IPNI, PotashCorp Million tonnes KCl North America’s Potash Shipment Profile Significantly Improved Demand in 2014
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Source: USDA, AAPFCO, PotashCorp Calculation based on commercial fertilizer application data, estimated nutrients available from manure and crop removal rates for all major crops grown in the US. Million Short Tons KCl Equivalent Application Rates Have Not Kept Pace With Higher Crop Removal US Potassium Application and Crop Removal US TotalRegional Application Deficit – 2010 ~ 8.0 million st
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Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications Potash Mines Could be Closed Due to Water Inflows or Ore Depletion Historical Potash Mine Closures 1986 Berezniki - 3 mine in Russia (1.8 MMT) was abandoned due to flooding 1988 Patience Lake SK mine (1.0 MMT) was converted to a solution mine after flooding 1998 Cassidy Lake NB mine (1.3 MMT) was lost due to flooding 1990-2003 Potash mines in US, Germany and France closed due to depleting ore and high cost position 2006 Berezniki -1 mine in Russia (1.4 MMT) was closed due to flooding 2014 Solikamsk - 2 mine in Russia (2.4 MMT) shut down due to elevated brine inflow. 2018-2020 Mines to be closed due to reserve depletion: Sigmundshall (Germany) and Taquari (Brazil) 2015 Mosaic to discontinue MOP production at Carlsbad, NM mine (0.5 MMT)
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Source: Fertilizer Week, PotashCorp 1.Weak fundamentals in the second half of 2013 impacted first-quarter 2014 ammonia prices. 2.Healthy demand and global plant outages supported ammonia prices following the first quarter. 3.Natural gas curtailments and plant reliability issues limited production in Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Trinidad and Pakistan. 4.Political tension in Ukraine/Russia constrained production and exports from this region. US$/Tonne Prices Were Firm Through Most of 2014 World Ammonia Market Update World Ammonia Prices2014 Highlights
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Significant Production Outages in Key Regions Regional Ammonia Production Profile Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp
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Source: Fertilizer Week, PotashCorp 1.Strong demand in key import markets. 2.Tight supply contributed to a price premium in the US compared to global markets in the first half of 2014. 3.Record Chinese exports pressured global urea prices. 4.Middle East export volumes remained at elevated levels. US$/MT Prices Soften Due to Record Chinese Exports World Urea Market Update World Urea Prices2014 Highlights
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Source: Fertecon, CRU, PotashCorp Million Tonnes Increased Demand Met by a Few Key Exporting Regions Global Urea Trade Changes World Urea Imports World Urea Exports Million Tonnes
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Source: USDOC, Potafertz, FAI, Fertecon, PotashCorp Million Tonnes India Imports Million Tonnes Brazil Imports US Imports Strong Imports in the Western Hemisphere; India to Catch Up Cumulative Urea Imports for Key Regions Million Tonnes
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Many Proposed Projects; Some Under Construction and Several Deferred Potential North American Nitrogen Project Locations High Probability Projects Medium Probability Projects More Speculative Projects Projects under Construction Expected Product Mix (million tons) AmmoniaUreaUAN UC/High1.35.03.8 Medium0.90.70 Low1.15.73.6 Source: Company Reports, Fertecon, CRU, PotashCorp Announced Project Cancelations/Deferrals
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1.Northern Hemisphere logistics and production issues tighten availability in first quarter. 2.India monsoon uncertainty and low importer margins limited import volumes. 3.Record demand from Latin America. 4.China exported record volumes with greater geographic diversity. Morocco and Saudi Arabia provided incremental supply. 5.Rising non-rock input costs. Demand Strength and Supply Challenges Support Phosphate Market World Phosphate Market Update US$/tonne - Phosphoric Acid US$/tonne - DAP Source: Fertilizer Week World Phosphate Prices2014 Highlights
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Million Tonnes Significant Shifts in the Supply/Demand Balance Global DAP/MAP Trade Balance Source: Profercy Trade Surplus Trade Deficit
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Source: FAI, Potafertz, CRU, PotashCorp Million Tonnes Higher Exports From Morocco, Saudi Arabia and China DAP/MAP Exports By Major Region Global DAP/MAP trade: 2012 – 20.5 MMT, 2013 – 20.6 MMT, 2014E– 22.0 MMT
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Source: FAI, Potafertz, CRU, PotashCorp Million Tonnes Record Latin America and US Imports in 2014 DAP/MAP Imports by Major Region Global DAP/MAP trade: ~21.0 MMT
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Impact of lower crop prices on global fertilizer consumption? US fertilizer demand in spring and logistics capability Impact of shortened fall application season? Potential nitrogen product mix changes? Macro factors and Geopolitical events Impact of changing FX, oil prices? Potential for new global fertilizer capacity? 2015 Factors to Watch
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There’s more online: PotashCorp.com Visit us online Facebook.com/PotashCorp Find us on Facebook Twitter.com/PotashCorp Follow us on Twitter Thank you
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