1. War and Peace

2. Sources of World War IV Ethnopolitical conflicts Problems of transition to capitalism The North-South gap Competition for resources (energy, water, food) The ecological crisis Terrorism Interstate rivalries, economic and political The emergence of radical Islamist ideologies 9/11 as the “tipping point” to World War IV

3. The US acts as the hegemonic power Radical Islam and “rogue states” are in the role of “the enemy” Promotion of liberal democracy “The unipolar moment” Unilateralism vs. multilateralism Determination to preserve US hegemony Rivals: rising centres of global power  EU  China, India  Brazil and others  Russia

4. Use of force is becoming more frequent and larger in scale: invasions, terrorist attacks The new concept of “preventive war” Militarization of outer space Dismantling of arms control, proliferation of nukes The danger that nuclear weapons may be used is considered higher than in the Cold War New hi-tech weapons The war in people’s minds: ideas and beliefs, religion A new culture of war?

5. "This fourth world war, I think, will last considerably longer than either World Wars I or II did for us. Hopefully not the full four-plus decades of the Cold War.“ – James Woolsey, former Director of CIA* *http://edition.cnn.com/2003/US/04/03/sprj.irq.woolsey.world.war

6. Global conflict map http://maps.maplecroft.com/loadma p?template=min&issueID=2&close =y http://maps.maplecroft.com/loadma p?template=min&issueID=2&close =y

7. THE WORLD’S MILITARY FORCES 20,000 nuclear weapons 120,000 battle tanks 35,000 combat aircraft 1,500 major warships Over 23 million under arms (regular and irregular armies) including 0.5 million women and 0.2 million children under 15

8. USA10,455 RF8,400 China400 France350 Israel***250 UK200 India***65 Pakistan***40 North Korea***8 Total20,168 The World’s Nuclear Weapons, 2004 (data from Nuclear Threat Initiative) *** Estimates

9. “The Long War” Guardian | America's Long War US Nuclear Primacy Foreign Affairs - The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy - Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press Foreign Affairs - The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy - Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press

10. The patterns of war, early 21 st century: Mostly in the Global South - even though most military preparations are in the North Mostly within states, not between states Casualties overwhelmingly civilian Terrorism a widely used weapon The threat of WMD use The potential for escalation and spread

11. The era of global warfare has not ended: it has merely entered its next stage The dialectics of integration and conflict in world politics Conflict and integration are inseparable from each other Integration has generated new conflicts They are undermining integration Will conflicts converge to produce large-scale warfare on global scale? At what level of conflict will the world achieve more viable and humane forms of integration?

12. Do we have alternatives to escalation? See Kofi Annan’s report “In Larger Freedom”: Report - Table of Contents And UN Secretary-General’s High-level Panel’s report “A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility” : Report of the Secretary-General's High-level Panel

13. A new global security consensus is needed The UN was created in 1945 as a collective security organization – To prevent states from waging aggressive wars on other states It was understood that peace and security would require:  facilitating socioeconomic development and  protection of human rights

14. SECURITY DEVELOPMENT HUMAN RIGHTS –are inseparable

15. “Sixty years later, we know all too well that the biggest security threats we face now, and in the decades ahead, go far beyond States waging aggressive war… …The threats are from non-state actors as well as States, and to human security as well as State security”. From “A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility”

16. Examples of mutual insecurity Northern troubles – southern consequences  World Bank estimates:  the attacks of 9/11 increased the number of world poor by 10 million  total cost to the world economy – $80 bln. Southern troubles – northern consequences  9/11  SARS  H5N1 (Bird Flu)

17. “Six clusters of threats” Socioeconomic threats, including  poverty  infectious disease  environmental degradation Inter-state conflict Internal conflict, including  Civil war  Genocide  Other large-scale atrocities Proliferation and possible use of weapons of mass destruction  nuclear  radiological  chemical  biological Terrorism Transnational organized crime

18. The “front line actors” to assure security – Individual sovereign states But they must act collectively – individually, they cannot do the job  The threats are transnational  No state is invulnerable  And an individual state may not be “able, or willing, to meet its responsibility to protect its own peoples and not to harm its neighbours”

19. “What is needed today is nothing less than a new consensus between alliances that are frayed, between wealthy nations and poor, and among people mired in mistrust across an apparently widening cultural abyss. The essence of that consensus is simple: we all share responsibility for each other’s security. And the test of that consensus will be action.”

20. The primary challenge - PREVENTION How to prevent security threats from rising: DEVELOPMENT If successful -  Improves living conditions  Builds state capacities  Creates an environment which makes war less likely

21. But what if prevention fails? Conditions for legitimate use of force Article 51 and Chapter VII of the UN Charter They need no changes, but they must be used more effectively Build a consensus on guidelines 5 guidelines:  Seriousness of threat  Proper purpose  Last resort  Proportional means  Balance of consequences

22. Other major issues arising during and after violent conflict:  Needed capacities for peace enforcement: all countries must contribute resources  Peace-keeping  Peace-building  Protection of civilians

23. A more effective UN Revitalize the General Assembly Reform and make more effective the Security Council (decision-making and contributions) Give attention, policy guidance and resources to countries under stress, in conflict, and emerging from conflict Security Council must work more closely with regional organizations Institutions to address social and economic threats to international security Create a more potent international body for the protection of human rights