1. Human Behavior Nearby an Explosion Philip Tannor (CPT.) IDF Ground Forces

2. Background Predicting an enemy’s behavior after a nearby explosion could be useful for: – Planning complex operations – Outlining operational requirements by certain weapon systems – Developing drills for military units In many cases the “interesting” question is how long it takes to escape from a room.

3. Objectives Estimating the amount of time required to escape a room after an explosion in another room in the building. Improving general understanding of people’s behavior after a nearby explosion. Emphasis: “worst-case” scenario (quick escape), military or guerrilla organization personnel.

4. Illustration

5. Method The research is based on analyzing videos from the internet, in which people are seen reacting to explosions in their vicinity. Most videos: – Urban environment – Captured via security cameras If several people are seen in the same video, each person is analyzed individually. Sample size: 25 cases (from 10 videos)

6. Demarcation & Assumptions Urban area only Military or guerrilla organization personnel only Explosion occurs in another room in the building Fairly small explosion (for minimizing civilian casualties) Person of interest is not ready for the explosion

7. Demarcation & Assumptions We did not take into account cases of selfless or inefficient stalling, since: – The main goal is to estimate the minimal time of escaping. – Stalling of this sort is difficult to generalize.

8. Example of a Video

9. Findings

10. Preliminary Analysis

11. Why Can’t we Stop Here? Sample size is limited (25 cases) Military/guerrilla personnel vs. civilians: – Differences in ages & gender – Combat training Therefore, to conclude the minimal “escape time”, a more detailed analysis is necessary

12. Detailed Analysis: The Phases

13. Detailed Analysis: Gantt Charts These were the different observed Patterns: Recovering from primary shock Running to a nearby exit Assuming a defensive position Stalling A Staying in a defensive position B C Time Recovering from primary shock A B C Running to a nearby exit A B C - Stall & Escape (not considered in analysis) - Defend & Escape - Duration strongly depends on the intensity of the shock - Quick Escape

14. Detailed Analysis: Total Time (Separated by Cases) We addressed four cases: – Quick Escape/Defend & Escape; – With/without a significant physical shock The results: Without a significant physical shock With a significant physical shock Escape immediately after explosion Very quicklyQuickly Escape after assuming defensive position QuicklyAfter a while

15. Using the Results for Practical Problems

16. Defining a “Moderate-Severe” Scenario In some cases, predicting the most-severe scenario is important. A “moderate-severe” scenario is useful for cases in which otherwise the solution is “too expensive”. We used 2 methods to estimate a “moderate-severe” escape time: – Manipulating the figures in the Gantt charts, simulating having slowed down for one of the phases – Using the 10 th percentile from the preliminary findings (categorized by if physical shock was significant or not)

17. Final Results Dividing into different columns allows matching values with their corresponding tactical use. Without a significant physical shock With a significant physical shock “Most-severe” scenario Very quicklyQuickly “Moderate-severe” scenario QuicklyAfter a while

18. Summary and Conclusions

19. Summary & Conclusions Results are valid only for the first person to leave the room Reminder: research focused on the severe cases. In some cases people may stay around for much longer. The single “most-severe” value should only be used when clearly necessary. The case will actually occur only if all of the following conditions apply: – No significant physical shock. – No defense or stalling. – No slowing down at any point until leaving the room.

20. Summary & Conclusions Estimating values the values for the “moderate- severe” scenario as well as the “most-severe” scenario has proven to be important. Analyzing internet videos as high resolution data may be a useful method for other researches as well.

21. Questions?