1. Mike Hadjimichael, Ph.D. MITRE / CAASD April 2014 Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. 14-0755

2. | 2 || 2 | Flight Operations Risk Assessment System Technology for Proactive Per flight Pre-flight Risk assessment Awareness, Communication, Decision Aid, Mitigation Tool

3. | 3 || 3 | A Little History  Flight Safety Foundation, ICARUS Committee, 1997  US Naval Research Laboratory  EVA Airways  MITRE Corporation

4. | 4 || 4 | Publication SAFETY TOOLS: Trees in the FORAS AeroSafety World November 2013 DANNY C. HO, CHI-BIN CHENG, HUAN-JYH SHYUR AND MICHAEL HADJIMICHAEL

5. | 5 || 5 | Benefits  Dispatch level pre-flight risk assessment  Instant overview of risk as a single number risk index  Full explanation and breakdown of risk components  Identifies actionable risk components available for mitigation

6. | 6 || 6 | Levels of Use Corporate Management Dispatch, Crew Safety Department

7. | 7 || 7 | How does it look? Dispatcher Reviews & Notifies Central Server calculates Risk Index Supporting Operations Databases Safety Manager ALERT!

8. | 8 || 8 | Input  Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories: –Crew Factors –Sector (City-pair) Factors –Aircraft Factors

9. | 9 || 9 | Input  Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories: –Crew Factors…….Crew database, Roster database, Flight information System –Sector (City-pair) Factors…….Airport databases –Aircraft Factors…….Maintenance databases

10. | 10 | Output  Risk Index –Ranges from 1.0 to 10.0 –Relative score –Compare to baseline (average)  Critical Parameter identification –Identify actionable over-limit parameters 10.0 1.0

11. | 11 | Operational Example EVA Airways Taipei, Taiwan 100 flights/day analyzed - Departure & Arrival 3 flights/day get 2 nd level review

12. | 12 | FORAS Interface (EVA example)

13. | 13 | Example: Single fleet, single route trend

14. | 14 | Example: Single fleet comparison

15. | 15 | What are the critical parameters?

16. | 16 | Critical Parameters – City pair

17. | 17 | Critical Parameter – One fleet

18. | 18 | Method

19. | 19 | Knowledge-based System Experts Performance Data Studies and Statistics Forensic Event Analyses

20. | 20 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk Crew Risk City-Pair Risk Aircraft Risk

21. | 21 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk Crew Risk Communication ExperienceStressors City-Pair Risk LengthAirportEn-routeAircraft RiskMELSuitability

22. | 22 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk Crew Risk Communicati on ……Experience……Stressors…… City-Pair Risk Length……Airport……En-route……Aircraft RiskMEL……Suitability……

23. | 23 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk Crew Risk Communicati on …….....Experience……...Stressors……....... City-Pair Risk Length……Airport…….......En-route……Aircraft RiskMEL……Suitability…......…

24. | 24 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk Crew Risk Communicati on …….....Experience……...Stressors……....... City-Pair Risk Length……Airport…….......En-route……Aircraft RiskMEL……Suitability…......…

25. | 25 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk Crew Risk Communicati on …….....Experience……...Stressors……....... City-Pair Risk Length……Airport…….......En-route……Aircraft RiskMEL……Suitability…......… Computation Flows Upwards

26. | 26 | Example Risk Factors (ALAR)  Conditions which lead to increased risk  Examples (crew, sector, aircraft): –Inter-crew communication –Crew experience –Experience at airport –Transient fatigue –Cumulative fatigue –Approach and Landing related MEL items –Sector length –ATC skill –Complex approach –Airport congestion –Visual Conditions

27. | 27 | FORAS Foundation  Non-commercial promotion and distribution of FORAS.  FORAS Fund to support aviation risk management  Managed by a committee of trustees  Affordable access to FORAS Risk Assessment models  Progressively priced based on fleet size  Available installation and training  Stand-alone or cloud-based installation  Generic or customized risk models

28. | 28 | FORAS Requirements  Crew Roster and Tracking  Flight Information System, MEL data  NOTAM access  Internet access or optionally, dedicated computer.

29. | 29 | FORAS Foundation Further Information  Contact Flight Safety Foundation  Mike Hadjimichael, The MITRE Corporation  Danny Ho, EVA Air

30. | 30 | Summary

31. | 31 | Model Benefits Centralize safety knowledge Connect human factors and risk. Works with operations data, not FOQA “Drill-down” to greatest risk contributors. Customizable to each carrier’s operations.

32. | 32 | Program Benefits Pro-active approach to safety at the dispatch level. Pre-flight risk assessment leads to Awareness Communication Decision Aid Mitigation

33. | 33 | Thank you  Further information Flight Safety Foundation Danny Ho, EVA Airways Mike Hadjimichael, MITRE Corporation