1. Public Opinion and Political Behaviors
Unit IIC
Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

2. Political Efficacy Voting in elections
Learning and understanding political knowledge
Having political discussions
Attending political meetings
Forming interest groups
Contacting public officials
Campaigning for a candidate, political party, ballot issue
Financial contributions
Running for office
Protesting public policies and/or officials

3. Voting - The Democratic Process
Voting exemplifies a “government by the people”
The American electorate determine policy and policymakers
Suffrage is the right to vote - regulated by the states
Vote in local, state, and national elections

4. Voter Requirements An American citizen of 18 years or older may vote
Aliens may not vote
Prisoners and convicted felons may not vote
States determine registration requirements
Residency requirements
Usually 30 days
Motor-Voter Law (National Voter Registration Act of 1993)
Register to vote when applying/renewing driver’s license
Register by mail

5. Expansion of Suffrage
Religious and property qualifications eliminated by 1800
15th Amendment guaranteed blacks the right to vote (1870)
19th Amendment guaranteed women the right to vote (1920)
23rd Amendment guaranteed right to vote for D.C. (1961)
24th Amendment eliminated poll taxes (1964)
Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Acts of 1965 eliminated voting restrictions for blacks
Grandfather clauses, white primaries, literacy tests
26th Amendment guaranteed right to vote for 18 years and older (1971)

6. Who Votes? High Level of Education Higher Incomes White-Collar Workers
Older Generations
Whites
Women
Religious
Union Members
Strong Community Members
Strong Political Party Members
Competitive Election Districts

7. Why Won’t People Vote? Negative campaigns
Numerous and frequent elections
Lack of party identification
Similarity between candidates
Mistrust in government
Apathy or Status Quo
Lack of political efficacy
Voter registration difficulties
Feeling of not belonging to a community

8. How People Vote Vote based on political party Vote based on the issues
Vote based on campaigns
Vote based on coalitions

9. Voting Based on Political Party
Party affiliation arguably the primary determinant for a voter
Most voters are Democrats, but not as firmly dedicated
Republicans successful with independents and moderates and have higher voter turnout

10. Voting Based on the Issues
Prospective Voting
Vote based on information of issues and candidates
Ex. Pro-life citizen votes for Bush over Gore in 2000
Retrospective Voting
Vote based on past events whether successful or failed
Ex. The economy suffered during Bush’s (R) administration hurting McCain’s (R) campaign against Obama (D) in 2008

11. Voting Based on the Campaign
Reawakens partisan loyalties of voters
Provides voters chance to witness how candidates handle the spotlight and responsibility
Allows voters to judge a candidate’s character and values

12. Voting Based on a Coalition
Democrats
Strong loyalties among blacks and Jews
However, limited popular contribution
Moderate support among most hispanics
Low voter turnout
Catholics and unions divided
Republicans
Strong loyalties among business people and professionals
Moderate support among farmers and conservatives
Farmers can switch based on economy

13. Types of Elections Primary Elections
Nominating elections which voters choose which candidate from each party to run in general election
Closed Primary
Only voters registered in the party may vote for candidate
Open Primary
Voters choose whichever candidates of either party by selecting party in the voting booth
Blanket Primary
Voters choose whichever candidate of any party for different positions
Runoff Primary
Election between top two candidates who received the most votes but neither received the majority of votes

14. 2008 Democratic Primary Election
California ballot

15. Types of Elections General Elections
Voters choose between all candidates nominated by political party or running as independents
Anyone of any or no political party may choose whichever candidate no matter party affiliation

16. Types of Elections Special Elections
Voters must decide on an issue or a candidate in special circumstances not related to a primary or general election
Initiative
Citizens propose a new law with enough signatures
Referendum
Legislatures refer a law to be voted by the people
Recall
Citizens petition to hold an election to choose to remove a public official
Special elections are only held at the state or local levels

17. Congressional Elections
Held every two years on even-numbered years
Every two years to elect Representatives
Senatorial elections may be held
Mid-Term Elections aka Off-Year Elections held between presidential elections
Low voter turnout
Incumbents - currently holding office
Generally win elections due to low voter turn out, success in office, or good campaigning
Franking privilege
Free mailings to constituents
Coattail Effect
Weak or less known candidates win based on success of popular presidential candidate through party affiliation

18. Franking Privilege

19. Congressional Elections Congressional Apportionment and Districts
Congress established number of representatives for House at 435 (1911)
Each state with at least one representative
Currently, one representative per 709,760
Reapportionment every 10 years based on census
Redistricting
States determine geography of legislative districts
Districts must be relatively equal
Consequences
Malapportionment - districts of unequal size
Gerrymandering
Drawing districts to favor a political party or group

20. Florida’s House Districts

21. Gerrymandering

22. Congressional Elections Primary Elections
Candidate gathers signatures through a following to be placed on ballot
Primary election determines party nominee

23. Presidential Elections
Held every four years
Phases of Presidential Candidacy:
Exploration
Announcement
Primaries and Caucuses
Nominating Conventions
General Election Campaign
Electoral College

24. Presidential Election Exploration
Does a candidate have enough political and financial support?
Sets up an exploratory committee to find out
Allows for growth of candidacy with media coverage, national attention

25. Presidential Election Announcement
Candidate decides to run for office
Sets up press conference to announce candidacy for president
Formal declaration as a national spectacle to propose agenda

26. Presidential Election Primaries and Caucuses
Voters from primary states vote for the party nominee
State delegates throw support toward primary vote winner
Most commonly used method
Caucuses
Historically, state and party leaders met and chose nominee
Very few states use caucuses
Iowa’s caucus is the first major electoral event usually determining the presidential candidate for each party

27. Presidential Election Nominating Conventions
Political parties hold national nominating convention attended by state delegates
Choose presidential nominee, vice-presidential nominee, party platform, unify party
Democratic Party and Republican Party do not use the same system of choosing a nominee…

28. Republican Convention
Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates
Unofficially determined by results of presidential primaries
In 2008, the Republican nominee required 1,191 out of 2,380
2012 in Tampa, FL

29. Democratic Convention
Nominee is chosen when a candidate receives a majority of the total delegates
State primary results determine candidate pledges
“Superdelegates,” not obligated by state results and chosen based on political status, can determine party nominee
In 2008, the Democratic nominee required 2,210 out of 4,419
2012 in Charlotte, NC

30. Presidential/Congressional Election Campaigning
Position Issues
Issue which divides voters and candidates have opposing views
Examples:
Abortion: pro-choice or pro-life
Marriage: man/woman or heterosexual/homosexual
Valence Issues
Universally shared views and voters determine which candidate is more likely to address/solve
Campaigns have recently concentrated more on valence issues
Low unemployment
Low crime

31. Presidential/Congressional Election Campaigning
Television
Paid advertisement - spots
News broadcasts - visuals
Debates
Televised or town hall
Gain exposure, usually for lesser-knowns
Could lead to showcase flaws
Direct Mail/Internet
Lists used to direct specific issue-based ads to specific demographics
Useful to earn campaign funds
Nixon - Kennedy Debate
1960

32. 1988 Presidential Campaign
Vice President George Bush (R) vs. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis (D)
Read My Lips
Tank Ad
Willie Horton Ad

33. Campaign Finance Congressional and Presidential
“Money is the mother’s milk of politics.” - Jesse Unruh (D)
Sources of Campaign Money
Campaign Finance Rules
Campaign Finance Reform
Effect of Campaign Finance

34. Sources of Campaign Money
Private individuals are primary sources
Federal government matches individual contributions to presidential candidates
Congressional candidates receive no federal funds
Political Action Committees (PACS) secondary source
Hard money
Financial contribution directly given to candidate
Soft money
Financial contribution given to political party as a whole

35. Campaign Finance Reform
Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 (FECA) and 1974 Amendments
Required disclosure of donors
Limits on individual contributions
Established Federal Election Commission (FEC)
Buckley v. Valeo (1976)
Constitutional:
Disclosure of contributions
Unconstitutional:
Limits on campaign expenditures

36. Campaign Finance Reform
Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA)/ McCain-Feingold Act
Banned soft money to national parties
Restricted PAC campaign ads
527 organization
Non-profit, tax-exempt political committee may not campaign directly for candidate or political party
May address issue or character of a candidate
Publicly disclose finances and donors
Ex. Swift Boat Veterans, MoveOn.org
Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010)
Overturned restriction on corporation and union contributions allowing unlimited financial support for campaign support ads
Ruled unconstitutional based on First Amendment freedom of speech

37. Campaign Finance Rules
Over $100 contribution must disclose name, address, occupation
No cash contribution over $100
No foreign contributions
No limit on candidate contribution unless accept federal funding
Individual limited to $2,000 contribution
Individual political gifts limited to $95,000 every two years
PACs
Must register 6 months in advance
At least 50 contributors
Give to at least 5 candidates
Not exceed $5,000 per candidate per election
Not exceed $15,000 to national political party

38. Presidential Election General Election
Electoral College
Majority of electoral votes - 270
State popular vote win grants electoral votes to candidate
Campaign in Electoral-rich states
Top 11 states would give a candidate 271 electoral votes
Swing States
Florida in 2000 Election
Ohio in 2004 Election

39. 2000 Election - Gore/Bush

40. 2004 Election - Bush/Kerry

41. 2008 Election - Obama/McCain

42. Electoral Map (2012)

43. Results of Elections Maintaining Election Deviating Election
Majority party/power maintains power and traditional voter loyalties
Deviating Election
Minority power wins with support of new voters, but voters maintain traditional loyalties
Usually temporary due to current issues or events
Critical/Realigning Election
Minority power wins majority with new voter coalition and maintains subsequent power
Occurs due to serious or extreme conditions and events
Dealigning Election
Voters less dependent on partisan loyalties
Split-ticket voting

44. Realigning/Critical Election
1920s dominated by Republicans in Congress and White House
Great Depression hits in 1929
1932 Election
Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) establishes new Democratic coalition of blacks, farmers, southerners, Catholics, Jews, unions, and urbanites
Democrats win landslide victories and majorities in White House and Congress