1. Vertical specialisation An analysis with redirected trade in value added Paul Veenendaal Arjan Lejour Hugo Rojas-Romagosa

2. Outline Background and purpose Methodology global input-output analysis labelling trade in value added definition of indicators Results hubs in electronics and motor vehicles hubs in China, EU12 and EU15 summary of major hubs and major suppliers to the hubs Some conclusions

3. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Background Hype in attention for trade in value added (WTO, World Bank, OECD) Inspiring articles: ­J&N: Johnson, R. C. and Noguera, G. (2012), Accounting for Intermediates: Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added, Journal of International Economics, 86(2):224-236 ­KPWW: Koopman, R., Powers,W., Wang, Z. and Wei, S.-J. (2010), Give Credit where Credit is Due: Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains, NBER Working Paper 16426 My presentation is based on ­LRV: Lejour, A., Rojas-Romagosa, H. and Veenendaal, P. (2011),The Origins of Value in Global Production Chains, study for DG TRADE but I bring the analysis further than LRV by ­using a more focused country classification ­adding 2007 data to the datasets for 2001 and 2004 used in LRV ­and shifting the focus to vertical specialisation 3 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012

4. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Purpose Can we retrieve meaningful information from global input-output tables about vertical specialisation at the industry level? ­with vertical specialisation we mean ‘the use of imported inputs in producing goods that are exported’ ›Some examples: ◦electronics production in China, South-East Asia and East Asia ◦motor vehicle assembly in EU12, Canada, Japan, etc. ◦airplane construction in USA and EU15 ­we aim to identify at the industry level ›the ‘hubs’ that convert intermediate output imports into final output exports ›their most important suppliers ›and the regions that do not supply 4 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012

5. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Approach Take the datasets from GTAP for 2001, 2004 and 2007 ­these datasets link national input-output tables with bilateral trade statistics ­57 industries, 84 different countries/regions Construct global input-output tables from the datasets ­main proportionality assumption: all incoming imports at the industry level are allocated to intermediate and final use in proportion to the row of the import matrix of the importer ›hence, for example, German electronics imports from China and German electronics imports from the US are allocated to use categories in Germany in exactly the same proportions Derive suitable indicators that describe vertical specialisation at the industry level ­we base these on redirected trade in value added 5 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012

6. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Structure of the global input output tables For a three region world example with regions: e (EU), c (China), r (RoW) and w (World) S is an (industry by industry) matrix of intermediate output deliveries, f a vector of final output deliveries by industry, x a vector of gross outputs by industry and w’ a row vector of value added by industry 6 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012

7. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Leontief arithmetic I (condensed notation) We summarize the global table with and define input coefficients for intermediates and value added as and Then in which B denotes the global Leontief inverse and is global final output use. 7 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012

8. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Leontief arithmetic II (condensed notation) Defining the use of final output in country r as and using the ^ symbol to denote a matrix with a vector on its main diagonal and zeroes elsewhere consider This matrix gives all values added that are required for the use of final output in country r. The row totals represent the values added from different sources that are needed for final output use in r and the column totals are equal to this final output use. 8 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012

9. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Labelling required values added (three region world) For China this matrix would become which we label as We label the entries to distinguish four different claims on value added because of the use of final output in China: G: values added for direct final output imports D: values added for Chinese final output that is used in China R: values added diverted into China ( via third country’s final good exports ) R*: values added reflected back to China 9 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012

10. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Reducing dimensionality (matrices -> vectors) At the industry level we can either follow the destinations of value added of a specific industry or the uses of national value added in the foreign production activities of that industry We choose the second option because it is the relevant choice for analysing vertical specialisation Hence, we reduce all matrices to vectors by adding country-wise over sectoral origins of value added 10 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012

11. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Bilateral value added exports Thus, bilateral value added exports from the EU to China can be represented as where the j th entry of these vectors denotes EU value added that is used for final output production (d, r and r*) and final output use (g) in China. 11 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012

12. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Bilateral value added intermediate imports China’s bilateral imports from the EU into Chinese final output production This equation is the basis for our vertical specialisation indicators. It specifies the claims on EU value added for China’s final output production and splits these in those for Chinese final output exports (r and r*) and China’s domestic final output use (d) 12 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012

13. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Vertical specialisation indicators for j-output We propose two indicator pairs at the industry level: China as a redirector: ­China’s share in redirecting foreign intermediate value added as a percentage of its foreign intermediate value added imports (redirection as % China’s imports) ­redirection as % of globally redirected value added trade for industry j China as a supplier to foreign redirectors: ­China’s share of domestic intermediate value added that is redirected by other countries as a percentage of China’s domestic intermediate value added exports (% of exports that is redirected) ­redirected Chinese exports as a % of globally redirected value added for industry j 20 March 2012 13 Vertical Specialisation

14. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Formulae of the indicators for j-output China as a redirector ( redirection as % China’s imports ) ( redirection as % of global redirection ) China as a supplier to foreign redirectors ( redirected as % China’s exports ) ( redirected as % global redirection ) 20 March 2012 14 Vertical Specialisation

15. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Country classification in results EU15: Old member states EU12: New member states OWE: Other western Europe OEE: Russia and other eastern Europe IND: India CHH: China and Hong Kong EAS: East Asia SEA: South-East Asia JPN: Japan USA:United States of America ONA:Other Nafta ROW:Rest of World 15 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012

16. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Industry classification in results AGO:Agriculture ENG:Energy LTM:Low-tech manufacturing MLM:Medium-low tech manufacturing CRP:Chemical, rubber and plastic products MVH:Motor vehicles and parts OTN:Transport equipment nec OME: Machinery and equipment nec ELE:Electronic equipment TRA:Transport OBS:Business services OCS:Other commercial services OSR:Other services 16 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012

17. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Aggregation and the share of redirected value added trade Aggregation over industries does not affect the composition of value added trade Aggregation over countries reduces the share of redirected value added trade and increases the shares of D and G ­Example: aggregation over EU member states ›all internal EU trade will be classified as D: domestic value added needed for EU final output used in the EU ›all EU imports that were diverted by EU-countries to other EU countries will be classified as G ›all EU exports that were diverted by EU-countries before leaving the EU will be classified as G as well 17 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012

18. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Intermediate value added trade as % of global value added trade for j- output, 2007 20 March 2012 18 Vertical Specialisation

19. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Redirection of foreign value added in electronics, 2007 19 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012

20. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Final destinations of redirected value added in electronics, 2007 Vertical Specialisation 20 20 March 2012

21. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Redirection of domestic value added in electronics, 2007 21 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012

22. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Origins of redirected value added in electronics, 2007 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012 22

23. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Redirection of foreign value added in machinery, 2007 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012 23

24. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Final destinations of redirected value added in machinery, 2007 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012 24

25. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Redirection of domestic value added in machinery, 2007 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012 25

26. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Origins of redirected value added in machinery, 2007 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012 26

27. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Redirection of foreign value added in motor vehicles, 2007 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012 27

28. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Final destinations of redirected value added in motor vehicles, 2007 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012 28

29. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Redirection of domestic value added in motor vehicles, 2007 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012 29

30. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Origins of redirected value added in motor vehicles, 2007 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012 30

31. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis China as a redirector, 2001-2007 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012 31

32. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis EU12 as a redirector, 2001-2007 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012 32

33. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis EU15 as a redirector, 2001-2007 Vertical Specialisation 20 March 2012 33

34. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Summary table of important redirectors, 2007 20 March 2012 34 Vertical Specialisation Criteria used: share of redirected value added > 20% of intermediate value added imports share of redirected value added > 8% of globally redirected value added

35. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Summary table of important suppliers, 2007 20 March 2012 35 Vertical Specialisation Criteria used: share of redirected value added > 20% of intermediate value added exports share of redirected value added > 8% of globally redirected value added

36. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Some conclusions Our analysis yields meaningful results on vertical specialisation at the industry level that are robust over time and are easily recognized as making sense We contribute to the literature with the direct labelling of bilateral trade in value added; this is new and our indicators are new too Yet, the approach has some weaknesses ­one needs proportionality assumptions in constructing global input-output tables ­we do not distinguish yet whether the ‘hubs’ identified are production hubs or trading hubs (re-exporters of ‘almost final’ output) Future research might focus on the benefits of ‘being connected’ ­for this we might explore whether our indicators at the most detailed level of 84 countries contribute to the explanation of growth differentials 20 March 2012 36 Vertical Specialisation