1. Future View of Transportation: Implications for Safety Alan E. Pisarski Stakeholder Workshop August 25-26, 2010

2. DEMOGRAPHYGEOGRAPHY TRANSPORTATION Transportation is the collision of demography with geography

3. DEMOGRAPHYGEOGRAPHY TRANSPORTATION

4. DEMOGRAPHYGEOGRAPHY TECHNOLOGY ECONOMY TRANSPORTATION Leavened by technology and the economy

5. A Quick Look at:  Demography is Destiny  Licensing and Vehicle Ownership  Travel Behavior and Activity  Truck Freight  Implications for Safety

6. Demography  The Pre-labor Force Age Group  Labor Force Age Group  Post Labor Force Age Group OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS

7. The Old “Watch Out” School of Planning Doesn’t Apply Any More  Watch Out! Here They Come!  There will be no Deluge of:  Young Population  New Cars  New Drivers (First Time Women Drivers)  Vmt  But – Maybe of:  Immigrant Drivers and  Older Drivers Continuing to Work/Drive  In Many Ways More Operable

8. Not Much Growth to Drive VMT

9. Half of Growth in Aged Pop will be Safety Challenge

10. Only Small Increases in Potential New Driver Population  Holds constant at 1.4% of pop til 2011 or so then drops to 1.3% of the pop thru 2050.  About 400,000 16 year olds added each decade; except the coming decade where less than 300,000 are added.

11. End of the Worker Boom  1980-90: 18.5 Million  1990-2000: 13.3 Million  2000-2010: NEGATIVE  Our problem may be too few commuters not too many!

12. Where will the workers come from? It could matter greatly.

13. A New Role For Older Workers Alan E. Pisarski

14. A Possible 11 to 13 Million Workers over 65 by 2030 OVER 65 19902000200820202030 POPULATION (millions) 31.2 35.0 38.8 (+24%) 54.8*72.1* WORKERS (millions) 3.5 4.25 5.66 (+62%) 8.2^10.8^ SHARE AT WORK 11.2%12.1%14.5%15%^ *Census Projections ^ Authors Estimates

15. The Tools of Travel Licenses  Saturation in all ages  Women’s gains  Immigrants Vehicles  Stability  Aging fleet  Workers = Drivers IS IT THE ECONOMY OR THE TREND ?

16. Women will close the licensing gap Men will live longer

17. Cars per Household – 48 Year Trend Alan E. Pisarski Households in thousands

18. Why Vehicle Ownership Matters – Work Travel Alan E. Pisarski

19. Household Workers and Vehicles  In one worker hh 93% have one or more vehicles  In two worker hh 87% have two or more  In three + worker hh 74% have three or more

20. Stable Vehicle Ownership Shares into the Future Only 4.4% of workers in household with no vehicle 2008

21. Consumer Spending on Vehicles Declining Since 2003-2005 Fewer vehicles? Older vehicles? More used vehicles?

22. Travel  Fewer Trips  Trip lengths stable  Travel times stable  VMT slow growth  But, long distance travel boomlet? Is it the Economy or the Trend?

23. The Role of the Work Trip has Diminished with Time

24. Trip-making down recently preliminary NHTSA

25. Mode Shares to Work are Stable 199020002008 WORKERS 100% DRIVE ALONE 73%76% CARPOOL 13%11% TRANSIT 5% TAXI 0% BICYCLE 0% WALKED 4%3% OTHER 1% WORKED AT HOME 3% 4%

26. As Women’s Jobs Became More Like Men’s their Work Travel Became More Like Men’s! – Differences are Less Extreme RATIO OF WOMEN/MEN 19902008effect Drove alone 97%102%NEG Carpooled 103%91%NEG/? Bus or trolley bus 166%130%NEG Subway or elevated 121%111%NEG Railroad 77%83%NEG Bicycle 30%40%NEG/? Walked 106%97%NEG/? Worked at home 130%109%NEG

27. Vehicle trip and VMT distribution by Purpose (2009 NHTSA –preliminary)

28. Average Trip Length by Purpose (2009 NHTSA -- preliminary)

29. Note: 20% of VMT is in trips over 50 miles

30. Where People Spend their Time travel day trip durationMean To/From Work23.9 Work-Related Business28.72 Shopping14.38 Fam/Personal Business14.8 School/Church17.81 Medical/Dentral21.87 Vacation46 Visit Friends/Relatives24.26 Other Social/Recreational17.22 All18.83

31. Immigrant Work Mode Trend A NEGATIVE SAFETY TREND?

32. Only Above a Thousand Miles Does Air Travel Win Marketshare Source: American Travel Survey 1995

33. THE ECONOMY AND TRAVEL  Declining shares of spending to transportation (housing?)  Less focus on new vehicles  Fuels impacts on costs  Fewer workers = less travel spending?  But, a boom in tourism? IS IT THE ECONOMY OR THE TREND?

34. Major Transportation-Related Trends Source: Energy Outlook, DOE

35. Travel Grows With Income Annual Trips per HH by Income Level Doesn’t Have to Mean More Crashes Future

36. How do we spend our transportation money?  Dominant factor (94%) is acquisition, use and care of vehicles  Purchased transportation (6%) = anything you buy a ticket for: air, cruise, transit (13% of 6%), taxi  Un-reimbursed Consumer expenditure survey BLS 2008

37. Transportation Spending is All about Workers Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2008

38. We are Spending Less on Transportation This Decade

39. Density and Distribution  Pace of change has slowed  Suburban growth pattern continues  Large metro growth is the key but … Is it the Economy or the Trend?

41. Suburban Growth Continues but Economy has Slowed Moves 35 million people moved from 2007 to 2008; down from 40 million in 2005-2006 The mover rate dropped below 12%; lowest ever recorded (started 1948) In met areas over a million pop suburban share: – was 51.3% in 2000 – now at 52.5% in 2008; – gained 66% of the growth to 2008 Census Domestic Mobility Study

42. National Commuting Flows – More Circumferential Travel

43. Mode Usage to Work by Flow Type

44. Before 8 it’s a Guy Thing! Many in Long Distance Carpools - More Early Driving

45. The Focus will be on Big Metros  Metros over a million  1960 34 areas  1990 39 areas  2000 50 areas  2005 53 areas  Probably 60 areas by 2020  60% of population  12 areas with more than 5 meg.  1/3 of national pop.; 100 meg.  Growth is in exurb areas

46. Freight  Increasing tons, vehicles and value  Increasing truck shares  Prospect of larger vehicles  More hazardous materials  Non-driver fatalities

47. Truck Freight’s Role is Massive DOMESTIC FREIGHT 20072035 TONS (millions) VALUE (billions $) TONS (millions) VALUE (billions $) ALL 19,26812,36333,66729,590 TRUCK 12,6919,26622,23021,654 % TRUCK 66%75%66%73% Freight facts and figures, 2008

48. Share of VMT by Road System INTERSTATE SYSTEM BALANCE OF NHS OTHER HIGHWAYS ALL VEHICLES 35%30%35% ALL TRUCKS 49%26%25% LONG DISTANCE TRUCKS 75%20%6% Freight Story 2008

49. The Hazardous Materials Role as well TONS (millions) VALUE (billions $) TON MILES (billions) ALL2,1911,660327 TRUCK1160420110 % TRUCK53%64%34% Freight Facts and Figures 2008

50. Truck Related Fatalities

51. We will see New, Sometimes Dramatic Patterns  A replacement labor force of ? size & skills  A rapidly increasing dependent older pop  A pop heavily defined by immigration policy  Changes in energy & environment costs  Other intervening new technologies  All affected by and affecting changes in societal preferences and tastes.

52. Major Safety Implications POSITIVE  Fewer young drivers  Stable vehicle & license growth  Younger working age group  Slower VMT growth – driven by pop & income NEGATIVE  More post-work age workers  Slow fleet turn-over  Immigrant conflicts  Higher percentage of travel by older pop  More trucks, hazmat

53. In Summary  To me the central demographic questions for traffic safety of our generation are:  Will the post work-years group be forced to stay in the work place – because of their own or society’s needs?  To what extent will the abilities of the aging population to meet its own mobility needs diminish? – in what ways and at what rate?  Can cars and truck activities be made more compatible?

54. Thank You! Alan E. Pisarski with Special Thanks to Forrest Council and Hugh McGee Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc

55. Questions?