1. How East Asians View Democracy

2.  First systematic comparative survey of attitudes and values toward politics, governance, democracy and reform, and citizens’ political actions in East Asia  Standardized survey instruments designed around a common research framework  Federated country-team structure, coordinated by Yun-han Chu, National Taiwan University, with international steering committee  Funded by Taiwan Ministry of Education, Henry Luce Foundation, World Bank, foundations in some of the countries, and other sources  Allows for nested comparisons: three Chinese societies, five “Confucian” societies, developed/developing, democratic/non-democratic; within-society educational, gender, occupational, ethnic, religious, and other groups  Later changed its name to Asian Barometer Surveys. Web address: www.asianbarometer.org East Asia Barometer A Comparative Survey of Democratization and Value Change, 2001-2003

3. Table 1.2a Survey Schedules and Sample Sizes of First Wave EAB

4. Data release form

5. Table 1.2b Survey Schedules and Sample Sizes of Second Wave AB LocationSurvey ScheduleValid Cases TaiwanJan 14-Feb 15 20061587 Hong KongSep-Dec 2007849 ThailandApr-Sep 20061546 PhilippinesNov 25-Dec 5 20051200 ChinaOct 15 2008Not yet complete MongoliaMay 25-Jun 9 20061211 JapanFeb 23-Mar 12 20071067 South KoreaSep 7-22 20061212 IndonesiaNov 15-29 20061598 VietnamNov 25-Dec 5 20051200 SingaporeJul 15-Dec 22 20061012 MalaysiaJul 14-Aug 15 20071218 CambodiaApr 19-May 4 20081000

6. Regime Support and Democratic Support in Asia (% of total sample expressing support) Notes: Source: 2006 Asian Barometer Surveys, preliminary 7-nation dataset as of July 2007 "Rejects authoritarian alternatives"=respondent rejects at least half of the authoritarian alternatives on which s/he expresses an opinion, out of a possible total of three; "Commitment to democracy"=combined measure of five positive attitudes toward democracy; "Trusts government institutions"=summed trust scores for five government institutions is more positive than negative. Bold (red) numbers are at or above the average for that row, nonbold (green) numbers below the average

7. Table 1.3 Meaning of Democracy (% of total sample mentioning this meaning)

8. Table 1.13 Commitment to Rule of Law (% of respondents)

9. Table 1.8 Support for Democracy (% of respondents)

10. Table 1.9 Authoritarian Detachment (% of respondents)

11. Democratic Values in East Asia (% giving pro-democratic answer)

12. Table 1.7 Perceived Change from Past to Present Regime (% of valid sample mentioning this meaning)

13. Difference in Perceived Performance of Current and Past Regimes (% perceiving improvement minus percent perceiving worsening)

14. Table 10.3 Impact of Regime Policy Performance on Support for Democracy (Standardized regression coefficient)

15. Traditional Values in East Asia (% agree or strongly agree)

17. First and Second Wave Comparison

18. Satisfaction with the way democracy works (% satisfied)

19. Democracy is always preferable (% Agree)

20. We should get rid of parliament and elections and have a strong leader decide things (% Strongly or somewhat disagree)

21. Authoritarian detachment (% Oppose all three non-democratic alternatives except expert rule)

22. Democracy can solve the problem (% Positive response)

23. Whatever its faults may be, our form of government is still the best for us (% Agree)

24. Second Wave

25. Q103. People have the power to change a government they don’t like

26. Q113. How often do national governments abide by the law?

27. Q43. On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last national election?

28. Q110. People are free to speak what they think without fear

29. Q111. People can join any organization they like

30. Q116. How well do you think the government responds to what people want?

31. Q45-47. Access to Public Services JapanTaiwanMongoliaPhilippinesThailandIndonesiaMalaysiaSingapore Place in Public Primary School 6726131856651677880207096619 Medical Treatment Nearby 944908256057348311841380188910 Help from Police 53144716384741266119562647217510 EasyDifficultEasy Difficult

32.  Don’t walk away after democratic transition, but invest in the consolidation of new democracies at risk.  Consolidation is not only about elections and civil society, but even more about rule of law, accountability, and governance – the “quality of democracy.”  Promoting the “d” word is less valuable than promoting deeper democratic values.  Longterm modernization promotes democratic values, but slowly and unevenly.  The modernization process that most changes values is education.  Take authoritarian governments at their word in their democratic claims, and work with the public’s rising expectations for democracy. Policy implications

33. Institutionalizing African Democracy: Formal or Informal? Michael Bratton, Michigan State University

34. Research Questions What are the trends over time in popular support for democracy? Is nostalgia for authoritarian rule growing or shrinking? Over time, are Africans becoming more or less satisfied with the quality of democracy delivered by their leaders? How much democracy do they think they have? How do they arrive at their attitudes to democracy? With reference to formal or informal institutions? Which is more important? If informal institutions remain important to African politics, do they help or harm democracy?

35. The Afrobarometer A comparative series of public attitude surveys on democracy, markets and civil society. Run by Idasa (South Africa), CDD (Ghana) and MSU, plus national partners. Based on: * national probability samples (1200-3600) representing all adult citizens * margin of sampling error of +/- 3% at 95 % confidence * face-to-face interviews by trained interviewers in language of choice * response rates averaging above 80% * standard questionnaire with identical or functionally equivalent items Data Comparisons of observed values across countries, and over time, between: * Afrobarometer Round 1 (12 countries), 1999-2001 (21,000+ cases) * Afrobarometer Round 2 (15 countries), 2002-2003 (23,000+ cases) * Afrobarometer Round 3 (18 countries), 2005-2006 (25,000+ cases)

36. Back to Afrobarometer Countries Figure 2: Coverage of Afrobarometer Surveys, 1999-2006

37. “Which of these three statements is closest to your own opinion? A.Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government; B.In some circumstances a non-democratic government can be preferable; C.For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what form of government we have”

38. “There are many ways to govern a country. Would you disapprove or approve of the following alternative: The army comes in to govern the country?”

39. “There are many ways to govern a country. Would you disapprove or approve of the following alternative: Only one political party is allowed to stand for election and hold office?”

40. Percentage approving democracy or rejecting other political regimes

41. Percentage saying that “democracy is preferable to any other form of government.” 2005 figure for Tanzania includes 59 percent “don’t know/don’t understand.” *

42. Percentage approving democracy or rejecting other political regimes

43. Percentages (a) satisfied with “the way democracy works” (b) perceiving that country has “full” or “almost full” democracy and (c) thinking country will remain a democracy in the future

44. Percentage “satisfied” or “very satisfied” with “the way democracy works in (this country).” * The estimate for Ghana in 2002 is based on 15 percent “don’t knows” (imputed from R1 and R3 distributions) *

45. “Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in (your country)?” Figure 10: Satisfaction with Democracy: 18 African Countries, 2005

46. Percentages (a) satisfied with “the way democracy works” (b) perceiving that country has “full” or “almost full” democracy and (c) thinking country will remain a democracy in the future

48. Multiple Regression (OLS) a 1.319.027.000 -.093.008-.083.000 -.057.009-.049.000.002.000.045.000.062.011.045.000.052.002.185.000 (Constant) Gender (Female) Habitat (Rural) Age Religion (Muslim) Education Model 1 BStd. Error Unstandardized Coefficients Beta Standardized Coefficients Sig. Figure 13: Explaining Popular Demand for Democracy: Selected Social Influences Model Summary.217.047.54511 RR Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate The dependent variable (demand for democracy) is an average index of support for democracy and rejection of three authoritarian alternatives (military, one-party and one-man rule). It measures the depth of popular commitments to a democratic regime.

49. Multiple Regression (OLS) 1.318.02163.233.000.356.007.42749.247.000.200.007.24227.910.000 (Constant) Free and Fair Elections Trust in the President Model 1 BStd. Error Unstandardized Coefficients Beta Standardized Coefficients tSig. Model Summary.575 a.330.767 Model 1 RR Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate Dependent Variable: EXTENT OF DEMOCRACY a. Figure 14: Explaining the Perceived Extent of Democracy: Formal Institutions versus Informal Ties, 2005 Source: Individual-level data, Afrobarometer Round 3 for original 12 Afrobarometer countries (n = 17,917 unweighted, 14,400 weighted) Adjusted R square for all 18 R3 countries =.287 (Beta =.396 for free and fair elections. Beta =.239 for trust in president)

50. Percentage share of explained variance in extent of democracy accounted for by each predictor 12 original Afrobarometer countries (Round 1, N = 21,531; Round 3, N = 17,917) “In your opinion, how much of a democracy is (your country) today?”

51. Percentage approving democratic side of forced choice statements (see text for wordings)

53. Clientelism: Average construct of agreement with two items: 1.“In our country these days, we should show more respect for authority.” 2.“Once in office, leaders are obliged to help their home community” Corruption: “How many of the following people do you think are involved in corruption? Members of parliament/National assembly deputies? Elected local government councilors? Presidentialism: How much do you trust each of the following? The President?

54. Figure 19: Explaining the Extent of Democracy: Comparing Formal and Informal Institutions, 2005 Multiple Regression (OLS) a 2.627.03869.910.000.021.006.0333.455.001 -.028.005 -.045 -5.366.000.081.006.12112.481.000 -.064.006-.097-10.947.000 027.006.033 -4.149.000 -.131.009-.121-14.126.000.203.007.25528.679.000 (Constant) FORMAL INSTITUTIONS Elections that remove leaders Peaceful multiparty competition A representative legislature President subject to rule of law INFORMAL INSTITUTIONS Clientelism Corruption Trust in the President Model 1 BStd. Error Unstandardized Coefficients Beta Standardized Coefficients tSig. Dependent Variable: EXTENT OF DEMOCRACY a. Model Summary.433.187.798 Model 1 RR Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate Source: Individual-level data, Afrobarometer Round 3 (n = 25,397 unweighted, 21,600 weighted, across 18 countries)

55. www.afrobarometer.org

57. Jordan: Center for Strategic Studies Palestine: Center for Policy and Survey Research Morocco: Hassan II University-Mohammadia Algeria: University of Algiers Kuwait: Kuwait University Yemen: Yemen Interactions Lebanon: Statistics Lebanon United States: University of Michigan (PI), Princeton University (co-PI) The Arab Barometer Team

58. 2006 Arab Human Development Report: Deficit of Freedom. “Viewed from the perspective of freedom and good governance, it is difficult to describe subsequent events in the Arab arena as the kind of widespread, thorough-going reform for which the report called…despite the growing winds of protest against governments and the intensifying demands for radical reform around the Arab world.” Thinking about Governance and Democracy in the Arab World

59. 2006 Surveys All CountriesJordanPalestineAlgeriaMoroccoKuwait Despite drawbacks, democracy is the best system of government 86% N=5,740 86% N=1143 83% N=1270 83% N=1300 92% N=1277 88% N=750 Having a democratic system of government in our country would be good 90% N=5,740 93% N=1143 88% N=1270 81% N=1300 96% N=1277 93% N=750 Support for Democracy Has Consistently Been High in All Muslim Arab Countries Surveyed

60. Support for Democracy Is High among More as well as Less Religious Persons 2006 Frequency of Reading the Quran Agree that despite drawbacks, democracy is the best system of government Everyday several times a weekSometimesrarelynever All Countries 86% 85%90% Jordan87%85% 84%83% Palestine85%83%80%78%93% Algeria80%82%85%80%90% Morocco90%94%95%93%90% Kuwait87%89%90%86%

61. What Qualities Are Important in the Spouse of Your Son or Daughter? That S/he Prays Is: Very Important Despite Its Problems, Democracy Is the Best Political System Jordan 2006Palestine 2006 Strongly Agree/ Agree Disagree/ Strongly Disagree Strongly Agree/ Agree Disagree/ Strongly Disagree 53595662 Somewhat Important26252420 A little Important8697 Not Important131011

62. Why Does the Arab World Lag Behind? What Do Ordinary Citizens Think

63. Do People Think the is U.S. Helping? To What Extent Do You Agree or Disagree with the Following Statement? “U.S. Democracy Promotion Policies toward Arab Countries Are Good”

64. 2006The most important characteristics of democracy Jordan  Opportunity to change government=20%  Freedom to criticize government=19%  Reduce income gap between rich and poor=30%  Provide basic necessities like food=31% Palestine  Opportunity to change government=34%  Freedom to criticize government=24%  Reduce income gap between rich and poor=13%  Provide basic necessities like food=29% Algeria  Opportunity to change government=28%  Freedom to criticize government=22%  Reduce income gap between rich and poor=30%  Provide basic necessities like food=20% Understanding and Support of Democracy Are Often Instrumental

65. People Are Divided about the Role of Religion in Government To What Extent Do you Agree or Disagree with the Following Statement? “Religious Practice Is a Private Matter and Should Be Separated from Socio-Political Life”

66. Influence of Religious, Cultural and Political Orientations, Expressed as Probability of the Null Hypothesis, on “Religious Practice Is a Private Matter and Should Be Separated from Socio-Political Life” (H0 if p >.050) Items from Surveys in 2006 JordanPalestineAlgeriaMoroccoKuwait Religiosity: How often do you read the Quran? Everyday or almost, Several times a week, Sometimes, Rarely, Not at all.871.305.106.715.343 Culture: A university education is more important for a boy than a girl. Strongly Agree, Agree, Disagree, Strongly Disagree.629.241.484.753.635 Political Discontent: Using a 10-point scale, where 1 means very dissatisfied and 10 means very satisfied, indicate how satisfied you are with the performance of the current (Jordanian) government.350.000.004.707 Political Discontent: Our political leaders care about ordinary citizens. Strongly Agree, Agree, Disagree, Strongly Disagree.008.087.037.099. 050 External Interference: Some people have said that the Arab world lags behind other regions. Which of the following statements do you most agree with? It is because of Domestic factors, Both Domestic and International factors, International factors.955.267.494.060.001

67. Disagreement about the Political Role of Islam Is Equally Pronounced among People Who Do and Do Not Favor Democracy Men of Religion Should Have No Influence in Government Decisions (Jordan 2006) Strong Agree/Agree Disagree/Strong Disagree Democracy Is the Best Very Strong/ Strong Political System Somewhat Strong/ Not Strong Despite Its Problems 40.9% Secular Democracy 44.4% Democracy with Religion 7.3% Secular Non-Democracy 7.5% Religious System without Democracy

68. 2006 Surveys Strongly Agree or Agree that Democracy, Despite Its Drawbacks, Is the Best Political System Strongly agree/Agree that men of religion should influence government decisions Strongly disagree/Disagree that men of religion should influence government decisions All Countries54%46% Jordan52%48% Palestine55%45% Algeria58%42% Morocco63%37% Kuwait39%61%

69. Percent Agreeing with Statement about Democratic Values 2006 Surveys It is (very) important to have political leaders who are open to different political opinions Does not mind having neighbors of a different race Agree that Men and women should have equal job opportunities and wages. All Countries Secular Democracy 95 (50)8676 Islamic Democracy 95 (63)8270 Jordan Secular Democracy 94 (53)7966 Islamic Democracy 92 (54)6766 Palestine Secular Democracy 96 (58)NA79 Islamic Democracy 97 (61)NA72 Algeria Secular Democracy 95 (60)8371 Islamic Democracy 96 (66)8057 Morocco Secular Democracy 93 (62)9478 Islamic Democracy 95 (64)8977 Kuwait Secular Democracy 96 (64)8885 Islamic Democracy 98 (71)9284

70. 2006 Surveys (*** p H0 <.001) All CountriesJordanPalestineAlgeriaMoroccoKuwait Reads Quran more often.030 (.029) -.107 (.072).034 (.061) -.074 (.076) -.021 (.057) -.027 (.107) Higher trust in prime minister.190 (.032)***.212 (.084)***.334 (.064)***.152 (.085) -.092 (.069).318 (.102)*** Citizens have power to influence government -.106 (.038)*** -.471 (.093)*** -.350 (.088)*** -.146 (.084) -.017 (.081).635 (.144)*** Democracies not good at maintaining order -.135 (.042)*** -.340 (.100)*** -.264 (.090)*** -.248 (.099)***.244 (.104)*** -.330 (.129)*** Higher education.051 (.033).070 (.091).015 (.077) -.037 (.100).026 (.081).065 (.099) Older age.058 (.029)*.142 (.068)* -.011 (.059).062 (.081).107 (.067) -.031 (.072) Less favorable family economic situation -.074 (.046) -.112 (.068).036 (.087).014 (.131) -.217 (.114)*.707 (.195)*** Constant -.328 (.240) -2.267 (.568)*** -.853 (.525) -1.100 (.672).094 (.594).334 (.754) Binary Logistic Regression Models Estimating Support for Secularism among Persons Who Support Democracy

71. Presentation to Press and Others in Morocco