1. IOPS Toolkit for Risk-based Supervision Module 3: Risk Identification

2. RBS Process

3. Risk Focus Driven by: Resources Objectives Nature of Pension System  DB funds – focus on funding + solvency, as well as trustee oversight ability  DC funds – focus on investment risk, costs and operational risks. The degree of competition also dictates the focus within DC systems Risk appetite

4. Supervisory Objectives and Risk Focus

5. RBS Process

6. Risk Factors Market risk Credit risk Liquidity risk Mismatch risk Actuarial risk Agency risk Operational risk IT risk External & Strategic risk Legal & Regulatory risk Contagion & Integrity risk

7. Risk Factors – Superintendencia Chile

8. Risk Factors – De Nederlandsche Bank

9. RBS Process

10. Risk Indicators Qualitative and Quantitative Quantitative  DB – funding + solvency tests (also for DC with guarantees)  DC – VaR + replacement rate targets Quantitative for non-financial risks  DB - number of complicating features, such as early retirement benefits, indexation etc.  DC - large range of investment options; central fund for allocating all investment earnings on a non-transparent, smoothing basis; level of outsourcing But qualitative indicators involving judgement also required

11. Risk Indicators - RBA Kenya

12. Systemic Risk Risks can be identified and assessed on two levels:  Micro – ‘bottom up’ – risks at the level of individual supervised entities  Macro – ‘top down’ – risk on a sector/industry or thematic basis Systemic risk particularly important  When overseeing large number of fund  In developing markets with new pension systems  At particular times (e.g. extreme market volatility / financial crisis) Build into overall risk analysis  Within individual risk assessments / or as separate layer of analysis  By pre-populating scores for these risks/ or leaving them to the individual supervisor’s judgement

13. Systemic Risk – HFSA Sources of Information Findings of institution assessment Monitoring information and messages Trends revealed in customer complaints Consumer protection (monitoring of product and service advertisements, information from interest-protection organisations) Market supervision (market data) Signals from macroeconomic and sector analysts (monitoring and analysis of risk priorities, domestic and international trends and phenomena) Information from contact persons of the institutions with below average impact rating Information from trade associations Information from supervised institutions (e.g. requests for opinions) Information received from law enforcement and licensing Information received from domestic and foreign partner authorities Information forwarded by domestic and international working groups Other sources

14. Thank You Presentations of practical examples to follow