1. Ford Foundation Community College Bridges to Opportunity David Prince Sr. Research Manager, Washington State Board for Community and Technical Colleges

2. Research Project Create a better understanding of low-income students Identify the state-level policy implications

3. Study Approach Follow cohort of working age adults, new to college for 5 years after start: Identify those likely to be low-income Measure success for educational attainment, employment, earnings and access to further education and training Work backwards from success to identify roadblocks and pathways- examine issues raised by task group last spring and others that emerge

4. Society’s economic health is directly related to the economic attainment of its members. How are we doing? More than 1/3 of the working age population = adults (25-49 yrs) with high school education or less, and younger adults (18-24). Both have lower socio-economic status and higher unemployment. Both have lower levels of education and training. Educational attainment and economic attainment continue to be closely linked.

5. Economic attainment: 1 year of college level credit + a credential is the tipping point for students struggling to find career pathways. Highest value-added for work success - 1 year + credential gives future earnings bump:  = $6,600 more per year for ESL students  = $9,200 more per year for an ABE student  = $4,900 and $2,700 more per year (respectively) for workforce students entering with a GED or HSD only Jobs that need 1 year college level credit +credential are among those in greatest demand. This is the key for most to go beyond poverty wages … to make a lasting difference in their futures … It is the niche the 2 yr college system has claimed.

6. Up and down the Educational Pipeline, the 2-yr system is hemorrhaging working age adults with high school education or less, or ESL 9 out of 10 ABE/ESL = modest skills gains, at best earn a GED … but go no further 2 out of 3 workforce and transfer students who enter with GED - leave with less (many, a lot less) than 1 year of college and no credential 6 out of 10 who enter with high school diploma – also leave with less (some, a lot less) than 1 year of college and no credential. Entering Classes: Almost 1/3 of every new entering class is made up of prime working age (25-49) - with HSDs or less or non-English speaking.

7. One group of students is poised to benefit now … but services to them are full of holes 70% of ABE and ESL students who make the transition to college level work have HSDs/GEDs in hand. Now eligible for developmental education and financial aid. at best, only 1/3 receive these services (ESL less than ABE). Coulda: Dev Ed and Basic Skills could have identified full need for applied learning AND filled counseling and other gaps that affect access to aid. 2 to 3 times more likely to complete credentials and increase their educational attainment (vs similar unaided and unsupported students). BUT ….

8. Another far larger group of students, seemingly equally prepared to benefit, never go beyond basic skills. Nearly 6 out of 10 ABE students with HSDs/GEDs go no further. 8 out of 10 ESL students with HSDs/GEDs go no further.  Latino/Hispanic ESL students with HSDs are half as likely as other students to transition beyond basic skills. Males who earn a GED (particularly Latino/Hispanics) are less likely than women to go further in their education.  Because they earn relatively more than women, men also forgo more wages when they attend. Shoulda: Programs should have designed and marketed services with these factors in mind.

9. Many jump start training, but their opportunities are cut short before real gains are made. Short, 1 st step training focused exclusively on getting a job, with less attention to educational attainment results in lower future earnings when students don’t return – and they often don’t  Customized job training plan only: $8,300  Students who complete a plan (but attain less than 1 year of college credit) earn $3,900 less per year than those who have credential + 1 year of college level credit … $8,300 less per year if they started from basic skills.  These tend to be more uncertain of their long-term goals (and act accordingly). Woulda: The system would have avoided dead-end starts and false promises by ensuring that low-skilled students had both short- and long-term strategies for real attainment.

10. Every step – especially the 1 st step – must be additive to the final goal of substantial attainment. Students need to see people ahead of them take the next step, and experience success! To stop the hemorrhaging of students from our programs, meet student and employer needs, and improve the economic climate of society, 2 yr colleges need to re-think and re-design services for low-skilled working adults.

11. Design career pathways that are easy to use, provide meaningful mileposts, and real destinations. Unskilled Labor Semi-skilled Labor Entry Level – Skilled Labor Entry level - Technician Skilled Technician Technical Professional Workplace Readiness Vocational ABE/ESL Tech Prep – Bridge Training 1 Yr Credit + Credential OJT, AA, Apprenticeship Professional development, B.A. Degree, etc.

12. Build the pathways for commuters. Run it on their schedules, accommodate lots of on and off traffic, facilitate good connections to long-term destinations. Provide a full map clearly in view for stops that really exist. Provide guidance and support so people don’t get lost. Anticipate different types of traffic - Who is already waiting at the 2 nd stop; how many from the first stop will go to the 2 nd ? Measure success in terms of a transport - lots of riders, lots of trips, all stops meaningful, many short trips but always set up to go further and faster.

13. Findings and Implications for System Discussion Educational attainment for the least educated adults in society is an important (and often neglected) health indicator for our economy. Pipeline hemorrhaging working age adults with high school education or less and ESL across the missions. The broader need for applied learning spans (and may go beyond) the more parochial missions of basic skills and developmental education. 1+ Yrs of college level credit + credential sets a meaningful goal to design and market plans for all. Operationally, system should resemble a mass transit. There are groups poised to benefit, but more than 1 st platform needs to be there.

14. Data sources and Examples College and student level demographics, course enrollment and transcripts, degrees Employment records Welfare Records

15. Educational Attainment 5 Years After Start Detail-by Functioning Educational Level at Start Start After ESL N=12,519 <HS N=14,973 GED N=3,037 HS N=10,464 HS+ N=3,068 Other N=2,739 GED/HS (earned & left) 1%9% <10 Cr 7%16%28%17%18%23% 10-44 Cr 2%7%28%31%35%28% 45+ Cr 1%2%13%15%11%8% Plan 1% 3% 5% Certificate 2% 7%8%6%11% Degree 1% 10%17%18%9% Non-Cr 86%61%12%9% 16%

16. Educational Attainment 5 Years After Start Detail-by Race/Ethnicity 5 Years Post Bl/Afr Am N=3,102 As/Pac N=3,611 Lat/His N=9,410 Na Am N=1,180 Wh N=23,696 GED/HS (earned & left) 2%1%2%5%4% <10 Cr 18%13%8%21%17% 10-44 Cr 19%10%5%15%20% 45+ Cr 7%6%1%6%8% Plan 2%1% 2% Certificate 5% 1%4%6% Degree 5%6%2%5%10% Non-Cr 41%58%80%43%33%

17. 4 groups that comprise working age adults with high school/GED or <HS or ESL to start  ESL (n=919) and Basic Skills students who have or earn high school diploma/GED (n=2,863) and subsequently move on to college level academic and workforce preparation  ESL (n=3,861)and Basic Skills students who have or earn high school diploma/GED(n=3,608), but don’t move on to college  ESL (n=376) and Basic Skills students who enroll in college level classes with less than high school/GED (n=1,299)  Other (not in basic skills)1 st time students attending with high school/GED who leave college early (n=13,000)

18. Income Profile for Working Age Adults 1 st Time Students Starting at ESL, GED/High School or Less Low wage earner (n=24,000) Recent or current welfare recipient (n= 43,600) Resides in community proportionately lower income (N=46,790) ESL start87%16%78% < HS start82%29%66% GED78%29%60% HS73%14%57%