1. The impact of international migration on fertility in England and Wales Julie Jefferies and Eva Natamba Fertility Analysis Unit ONS Centre for Demography Office for National Statistics

2. Recent headlines: 1 in 4 children born to a foreign parent as immigration grows Source: The Times Thursday 23, August 2007 25% OF UK BIRTHS ARE TO FOREIGNERS …and more Brits than ever are emigrating Source: The Sun Thursday 23 August 2007

3. Introduction 1. Recent trends in UK fertility 2. Trends in births to mothers and fathers born outside the UK 3. How does international migration affect fertility? 4. Impact of international migration on population at risk of a birth 5. Impact of international migration on fertility rates

4. Total Period Fertility Rate, UK, 1971-2006

5. TFR, UK countries, 1971-2006

6. Age-specific fertility rates, UK

8. International migration: females of childbearing age

9. Country of birth of mothers and fathers, E&W, 1975 - 2006

10. Mother’s country of birth 2001 / 2006

12. How might international migration have an impact on fertility? 1. Effect of net in-migration on population at risk: size of female population of childbearing age age composition of female population 2. Effect of net in-migration on fertility rates: a. differences in actual/intended family size between –in-migrants, out-migrants and UK population –in-migrant sub-groups b. does timing of childbearing in relation to migration have an impact on period fertility?

13. Decomposition of number of births in E&W Actual births 2004 – 639,721 2005 – 645,835 Components of this increase: Rising fertility rates +6K Increased female population size +6K Ageing of female population -6K What effect did migration have on population at risk?

14. Effect of international migration on number of births in E&W Net international migration between mid-2004 and mid-2005 increased the number of births in 2005 by 8.7 thousand. In-migration increased the number of births by 16.2 thousand Out-migration decreased the number of births by 7.5 thousand Ageing-on of the population and other changes (mainly mortality) between mid-2004 and mid-2005 decreased the number of births in 2005 by 8.7 thousand.

15. Differences in TFRs by country of birth Using LFS populations by country of birth and birth registration data for E&W, 2006

16. Change in TFR for UK/non-UK born women Using LFS populations by country of birth and birth registration data for E&W, 2002/6

17. Change in ASFRs, 2002-06, for UK-born and non UK-born women in E&W, LFS

18. Intended family size, women aged 30-34 UK and non-UK born (GHS data 2000-05)

19. Actual family size, women aged 30-34 UK and non-UK born ( GHS data 2000-05 )

20. % childless by age, UK and non-UK born women (GHS data 2000-05)

21. Intended family size, women born in selected countries, all ages (GHS data 2000-05)

22. Key points Proportion of E&W births with a mother/father born outside the UK is increasing. Net international migration is increasing the total number of births via its effect on the female population at risk and via the differential fertility rates of migrants and non-migrants. Some (but not all) in-migrant groups have higher fertility rates and intended completed family sizes than UK-born women. Non-UK born women are contributing around 0.1 to the E&W TFR. Fertility rates have risen for UK born women since 2002 as well as for non-UK born women.

23. Further questions What might be causing increased fertility among UK-born women? Are UK women realising they can’t leave it too late? To what extent are the findings for UK-born women influenced by second-generation in-migrants? Are the fertility rates of in-migrant populations likely to converge to rates for UK-born women in future? How is the timing of fertility in relation to migration affecting period fertility?