1. 8 March 2012 The Economy and Women Sharon White – Director General, Public Spending International Women’s Day

2. 2 Outline UK Economy in 2011 Outlook for 2012 Impact on women - Labour market; - Spending cuts Policy response

3. UK Economy 2011 3

4. 4 High commodity prices pushed up inflation, depressing real incomes Uncertainty from Eurozone weakened confidence Impact of 2008-09 financial crisis on potential growth worse than previously thought Lower forecast growth - and worsened public finances – spending cuts will extend to middle of next Parliament at least. OBR Assessment at Autumn Statement

5. 5 Outlook for 2012

6. 6 Choppy pattern of GDP growth Quarterly GDP growth (%) 20112012 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 OBR’s Autumn Statement forecast 0.40.10.5-0.10.1 0.60.3

7. 7 Inflation is coming down CPI inflation (%) September 20115.2 January 20123.6 March 2012 (Bank of England forecast)3.4 June 2012 (Bank of England forecast)3.0

8. 8 Labour market continues to be weak

9. Eurozone threat remains, but appears to be receding 9 Conditions have generally improved over last two months. The anticipated contraction this year may be less severe than expected. Forward looking indicators suggesting stabilisation in economic activity. Evolution of consensus growth forecasts for 2012

10. Impact on Women 10

11. Labour market 11 Female employment fell by less in the recession (<1%) than male employment (3.8%) Reflects greater resilience to downturn of part-time working and public sector jobs Female employment has bounced back by less in recovery than men’s though much closer to peak levels (women: 60,000 below peak; men: 400,000 below) But risk to women of falling public sector employment

12. Public Sector cuts 12 Fiscal consolidation mostly through spending cuts not tax rises No gender breakdown available but protected areas of spending include: Health Schools Aid budget Defence equipment Welfare (tax credits and social grants benefits) being cut alongside public services

13. Policy Response 13

14. 14 Getting public finances back on track: maintain market confidence; keep interest rates low Maintaining flow of credit: Quantitative easing; credit easing – especially for small and medium sized businesses Reforming financial system: New regulation to reduce risk of another crisis Growth strategy: Big boost to infrastructure