1. Bounty of the seas...and the trees? Modeling the effects of terrestrial inputs on marine ecosystem services in the US Jodie Toft, J. Burke, M. Carey, G. Spiridonov, A.Guerry, P. Levin,, T. Minello, M. Plummer, M. Ruckelshaus, H. Townsend

3. In what situations do watershed- based activities affect the success of marine resource management?

5. watershed water quality oysters crabs Simple linked watershed-marine models for application in the 3 systems?

6. Land use: upland Land use: estuarine Climate: SST Climate: Precipitation

7. Puget Sound 1.Hood Canal 2.Whidbey Basin

8. Chesapeake Bay 1.Rappahannock 2.Eastern shore

9. Galveston Bay

10. HOOD CANAL

11. watershed Establish baseline conditions (2004-6): discharge total nitrogen

12. Discharge

13. kg/yrkg/ha/yr Total Nitrogen Export

14. water quality Model temperature, salinity, nitrate Conduct sensitivity tests on baseline conditions (watershed)

15. 1 2 3 4 5 6

16. BASELINE 1 2 3 4 5 6

17. % Change from Baseline Temp. SENSITIVITY TESTS: Effect to Surface Temperature from +/- of Land-Based Discharge Box 1 25% 50% 100%* Box 2Box 3 Box 4 25% 50% 100%* Box 5Box 6

18. % Change from Baseline Temp. SENSITIVITY TESTS: Effect to Surface Temperature from +/- of Land-Based Discharge Box 1 25% 50% 100%* Box 2Box 3 Box 4 25% 50% 100%* Box 5Box 6 Boxes 1  6 % Change from Baseline Temp. +/- 2 degree change in Sea Surface Temperature at Ocean Boundary

19. Pacific oysters Model effects to production and value from: 1.Changes in temperature, salinity, nutrients 2.Dissolved oxygen events 3.Loss/gain of nearshore habitat Dungeness crab

20. Survival larvae

21. Pacific oysters

22. In what situations do watershed- based activities affect the success of marine resource management?

23. Land use: upland Land use: estuarine Climate: SST Climate: Precipitation

25. watershed water quality Pacific oysters Dungeness crab

26. Uptake?

27. Water Yield Model

28. Average Annual Discharge Compared To USGS and WADOE gauge observations Average Annual Discharge Compared To USGS and WADOE gauge observations 2006 Snapshot: Land Cover Available Water Content Soil Depth Topography Watersheds Sub-Watersheds Snapshot: Land Cover Available Water Content Soil Depth Topography Watersheds Sub-Watersheds Annual Values: Precipitation Potential Evapotranspiration Annual Values: Precipitation Potential Evapotranspiration LU Tables: Rooting Depth Plant ET coefficient Water Demand LU Tables: Rooting Depth Plant ET coefficient Water Demand

29. SubwatershedSourceYearsN-S DuckabushRiverBrinnon USGS Daily20060.99 Hamma Hamma near EldonUSGS Daily1951-1971-0.46 SkokomishRiverPotlatch USGS Daily20060.99 BigBeefCreekatmouth USGS Daily20060.19 LittleQuilceneatMouth WA Dept Ecy Daily20060.67 BigQuilceneRiveratmouth WA Dept Ecy Daily20060.60 DosewallipsRiveratBrinnon WA Dept Ecy Daily2007-2011-0.73

30. Nutrient Model: Total Nitrogen and Phosphorus Phosphorus, Total SubwatershedYearsDifference Duckabush Brinnon1972-201057.245 Skokomish Potlatch1960-201090.271 Big Beef at mouth2004-201058.006 Nitrogen, Total SubwatershedYearsDifference Big Quilcene at mouth1999-201072.880 Duckabush Brinnon20060.184 Skokomish Potlatch200679.663 Big Beef at mouth20067.209

31. Skokomish Duckabush Hamma Dosewallips Big Quilcene Little Quilcene Big Beef Creek 2-Layer Box Model, 6 Regions Based on Babson et al. (2006), but rewritten in MATLAB for more general use 6 boxes in HC, 7 rivers IC’s: from MoSSea BC’s: from ADM001 DoE station ADM001 (DoE) Hans (ORCA) Physical transport model

32. Biogeochemical Cycling NPZDO modeling: Oxygen is added in proportional to nutrient uptake (Banas et al. 2009) or see: http://faculty.washington.edu/banasn/models/lynch/