1. The ‘oil curse’ in Africa Inge Amundsen Chr. Michelsen Institute Olje for Utvikling i Nord og i Sør UiTø, Tromsø, 5 December 2007

2. The Resource Curse –The Paradox of Plenty –The Dutch Disease What is it? –Economic explanations –Political explanations Examples –Angola –Nigeria –Cameroon Political consequences

3. The blessed and the cursed Norway Australia Canada Chile Brazil Peru Malaysia Botswana … Nigeria Angola DR Congo the Sudan Sierra Leone Liberia Zambia Colombia Azerbaijan … Rich in –Natural resources oil and gas diamonds other minerals timber fish foreign aid Poor in –Economic development contraction and concentration –Redistribution increasing inequalities increasing poverty –Democracy authoritarianism weak governance

4. Economic explanations The Dutch Disease –Relative price effect Higher currency value Imports Competition difficult –Crowding out productive sectors Over-investment in extractive industries Under-investments in manufacture, agriculture De-industrialisation –Volatility Uncertainty for businesses Low investments in alternative production Government waste and debt Capital flight

5. Political explanations The Rentier state model –Rents increases the stakes/prize of controlling the state Off-shore, foreign, High-Tec Government business, government take Consumption, enrichment, corruption, embezzlement Can lead to conflict, violence, civil war –Rents increases state autonomy Natural resources: “un-earned”, easy Little taxation of domestic economic activity No “social contract” Little influence of business interests, middle class Little influence of civil society, interest organisations

6. Political explanations The Rentier state model –Rents increases the powers of the state Means to manipulate institutions –Parliament, judiciary –Special institutions –Elections Means to buy (off) rivals –Patronage, clientelism, favouritism, nepotism Means to buy instruments of coercion –Military hardware –Security companies –Suppression

7. Example: Nigeria 40 years of oil production –Africa’s leading oil producer –Total income $ 300 bn 25 years Poverty –People in extreme poverty: 27 to 66% –Economy as poor as before oil Corruption –No 147 of 179 on TI index –Abacha embezzeled 2-5 bn US$ 93-98 Authoritarianism –Biafra War 67-70 –Coups d’état 83, 93 –“Niger delta syndrome” –Sharia states –Freedom House ranking 4 (PF) –Federal government + some states

8. Example: Angola Oil –Comparable to Norway Surpassing in 2010 –90% of exports 90% of government revenues Diamonds Poverty –Gini coefficient: > 0,60 –Poverty line: < 60% –No 162 of 177 on HDI –Internally displaced, landmines Corruption –No 147 of 179 on TI index –Dos Santos largest landowner in California? (“200 families”) –New airport, “New Luanda” Authoritarianism –Civil war 75-91, 92-94 –No elections since 1992 –Freedom House ranking 6 (NF) –Non-transparent social spending

9. Example: Cameroon Oil –6 in sub-Saharan Africa –30 years of oil income 3-5 % of GDP –Peak in 1986 –Chad-Cameroon pipeline Poverty –No 144 of 177 on HDI Corruption –No 138 of 179 on TI index Authoritarianism –Paul Biya since 1982 –Freedom House ranking 6 (NF)

10. Political consequences Democratisation –Institutions matter –Good governance Service delivery Basic human rights –From below Support from the outside –Transparency (PWYP/EITI) –Legal standards –Support to civil society Drivers of change Democracy first! –Political science theory: no democratisation of oil-rich regimes

11. Some literature

12. Summary “Without improving their democratic institutions and administrative capacity, it is unlikely that African oil exporters will be able to use petrodollars to fuel poverty reduction; instead oil monies are more likely to make matters worse for the poor” Catholic Relief Services (2003): Bottom of the Barrel. Africa’s Oil Boom and the Poor