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Media/Telecommunications Coverage Group. Company Overview Top mobile provider in telecom industry Split across two geographic regions: Europe and AMAP.

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Presentation on theme: "Media/Telecommunications Coverage Group. Company Overview Top mobile provider in telecom industry Split across two geographic regions: Europe and AMAP."— Presentation transcript:

1 Media/Telecommunications Coverage Group

2 Company Overview Top mobile provider in telecom industry Split across two geographic regions: Europe and AMAP (Africa, Middle East, and Asia Pacific) –438 million mobile customers in 26 countries Services include broadband internet, mobile, business enterprise solutions –Mobile is the majority of the business, 81% –45% smartphone penetration in Europe, increased by 7% in 2013

3 Company Stock TickerVOD:LN, VOD:AR Price$36.47 Market Cap$96.42b Dividend Yield5.5% P/E61.0733

4 Management Vittorio Colao - CEO (2008-present) –19 years of experience with the company in various markets –Managerial role in other media companies Nick Read – CFO (2014-present) –14 years at Vodafone with chief officer roles in the Europe and AMAP regions Stephen Pusey CTO (2009-present) –9 years at Vodafone after 20+ years in other telecomm companies including Nextel Overall: young team with relevant industry experience and company experience from all its major markets

5 Telecom Industry Overview

6 Global Revenue Projections

7 European Telecom Market Competitors are local and typically restricted to a single country –e.g Telefonica in Italy, Orange in France, and DTE in Germany –Vodafone is the only major player straddling multiple EU regulations, language barriers present significant barriers to entry in new markets

8 10/24/09 Alumni Homecoming Reunion 2009 EU Red Tape

9 Stagnating European Market

10

11 VOD vs VGK Europe Index

12 VOD vs Competitors

13 Thesis Market has overestimated impact of European downturn and unfavorable tax rulings on its business Uniquely hedged international position positions it to capture opportunities in rapidly growing Indian market and weather European stagnation vis-à-vis competitors. Cash-flows from Asia will compensate for lags in European investment and infrastructure construction.

14 Revenue Breakdown

15 Growth Factors - India Vodafone is the largest European mobile provider in India, and is the 2 nd largest provider overall (~23.89%) Modi government is championing reforms to provide government-sponsored wireless access to 500 million people in rural India. –Company product focus favors expansion into low infrastructure High profile unfavorable tax ruling makes Vodafone an attractive partner for the Indian government. –In the latest quarter, service revenue grew 15.0% YoY excluding currency impacts

16 Growth Factors - India Expanding position in India hedges against further stagnation in Europe –At current growth rates, by 2018, a 3% growth in the Indian Market would offset a 10% decrease in European revenue. Enables cash flows that European competitors don’t have access to.

17 Vodafone Revenue Growth

18 Growth Factors - Tech M-Pesa –Launches “M-Pesa” mobile payment system - used by millions of individuals in emerging markets, large player in the increasingly vital mobile payment space –Business partnership between M-Pesa and MTN Money Exclusive partnership between VOD and Dropbox to provide information management services in AMAP –High growth industry, 44% CAGR through 2019

19 Growth Factors – Europe LTE Project Spring –2 year investment of 19 billion pounds to grow in four areas: Consumer Europe –Smartphone penetration has increased by 7% and Vodafone is still in the top 2 mobile operators in most European markets –Unified communications in all key European markets

20 VOD as a Hedge - FX Volatility Outlook on Euro is extremely uncertain –Volatility on German bonds is the highest it has ever been in the past 5 years –Dollar just hit 4 month-low after rapid strengthening (GS predicted a further 12% increase). However, the surges of the Dollar (Jan – March 2015) are over –ECB QE is not indefinite –Weak economic indicators for the American Economy

21 Risk – Lags in European Investment

22 Risks FX risk with strengthening dollar –Aggressive EU QE policy has led to a strengthened dollar –GS estimates dollar will strengthen a further 12% against the currency basket –A 3% decline in the sterling would reduce EBITDA by £0.5 billion. Political factors –Numerous tax disputes in India (wrt several billion dollars) –Increasing regulation in EU - Governments are mandating that wireless firms lower interconnection and roaming fees, hurting sales and margins.

23 Valuation Modeled using fairly conservative assumptions –In all cases, assumed tax decisions were unfavorable –In Bear/Base case, increased EU regulation of data charges –Base growth rate taken from slump in 2009 DCF Valuation –Bear – $36.23 –Base – $39.45 –Bull - $43.76

24 Target Time horizon –24 – 30 months Target –$41.50 Exit Conditions –Political (Modi Budget) –Regulatory (EU)


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