1. Craig Conner Flood Risk Management Program Manager San Francisco District 9 December 2013 US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® San Francisco District Meeting the Rising Bay Tide in San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Planning and Corps Programs

2. BUILDING STRONG ® 2 US Army Corps of Engineers San Francisco District How Much Does Sea Level Change Really Matter?  Corps of Engineers’ general approach: ► Become better informed using our science agency partners. ► Start changing our way of thinking at all project levels. existing projects and new projects ► Think in larger time and spatial scales. ► Consider cumulative system effects, connectivity, and extremes. ► Build collaborative relationships and prepare for adaptability. ► Screen large body of projects and address methodically  GOAL: Realistic acknowledgement of residual risk, and the potential for impacts on performance and costs ► Path to develop appropriate plans and approach to adaptation. ► Be aware and ready if large scale impacts are possible.

3. BUILDING STRONG ® 3 US Army Corps of Engineers San Francisco District EC 1165-2-212 - Incorporating Sea Level Change Considerations in Civil Works Programs  Three estimates of future SLC must be calculated for all Civil Works Projects within the extent of estimated tidal influence: ► Low – Extrapolated ► Intermediate-Modified NRC I Curve ► High - Modified NRC III Curve  Current guidance does not assign a probability to each curve. ► Scenario-based approach required 1.5m 0.5m 0.2m The USACE sea-level change curve calculator (3 scenarios) can be reached at: http://corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfmhttp://corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm

4. BUILDING STRONG ® 4 US Army Corps of Engineers San Francisco District Comparison of Peer-Reviewed Research Estimates: GLOBAL Sea Level Rise by 2100

5. BUILDING STRONG ® 5 US Army Corps of Engineers San Francisco District Alternatives Development & Selection Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Alt A☺-2-20 Alt B☺-5 Alt C-10-6☺  Good scenario-based planning should consider: ► Adaptive Management ► Facilitating Future Modifications ► Designing for the Future Example of Least Regrets Approach

6. BUILDING STRONG ® 6 US Army Corps of Engineers San Francisco District Possible Planning Approaches [One-Time {Precautionary} & Phased Investment {Managed Adaptive}]

7. BUILDING STRONG ® 7 US Army Corps of Engineers San Francisco District Phased Investment Analysis Resilient Levee Prism targeting Curve H vs. Curves 1 or 3 Result: Assuming the smallest plan considered is an RLP targeting Curve H, if in 25 years you can’t raise the levee 2.2’ for less than $10M, then you should build to Curve 3 now.

8. BUILDING STRONG ® 8 US Army Corps of Engineers San Francisco District How Can the Corps Help?  LARGE Projects (~$11M to ~$1B):  General Investigation (GI)  Small Projects (~$2M to ~$10M):  Continuing Authorities Program (CAP)  Technical Assistance (~$1K to ~$100K):  Floodplain Management Services (FPMS)  Planning Assistance to States (PAS)  Interagency and International Services (IIS)

9. BUILDING STRONG ® 9 US Army Corps of Engineers San Francisco District General Investigations (GI)  GI advantage: no funding limits on project and more flexibility in modifying project  GI disadvantage: has a longer approval process than a CAP {Requires Congressional Approval}  Recon (100% Fed)  Feasibility (50% - 50%)  Construction (65% - 35% + LERRD, 50% max)  Must go through entire budget cycle (submit 2 FYs, then start Recon  Construction)

10. BUILDING STRONG ® 10 US Army Corps of Engineers San Francisco District Continuing Authorities Program (CAP)  CAP advantage: Corps already has authority  CAP disadvantage: limited funds and must meet authority guidelines  Provides authority to modify Corps project to improve the quality of the environment  $5M to $7M project limits ($25M to $50M national limit)  Cost-share (50%-50%) study, (65% to 75%-35% to 25%+LERRD) construction

11. BUILDING STRONG ® 11 US Army Corps of Engineers San Francisco District San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Projects Challenges  How do we optimize Civil Works projects to be resilient to climate change with limited project resources?  Answer: Shared Responsibility between Federal, State, & Local agencies – need better collaboration and leveraging of programs, data, and funds.

12. BUILDING STRONG ® 12 US Army Corps of Engineers San Francisco District Contact Information  Craig Conner (415) 503-6903 Craig.S.Conner@usace.army.mil http://nfrmp.us  Tom Kendall (415) 503-6822 Thomas.R.Kendall@usace.army.mil