1. University of Papua New Guinea International Economics Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World

2. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 1 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish Overview Exports and imports International trade theory: Criticisms International trade: Initial conclusions for developing economies Import substitution v. Export promotion Exchange rates Economic integration International trade reform

3. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 2 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish Exports and imports Export dependence: –Oil producing states –Primary products – up to 25% of export earnings! –Long-term prices of primary products are going down…

4. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 3 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish Primary product prices going down

5. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 4 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish Primary product prices going down

6. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 5 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish Exports and imports Low income elasticity of demand for primary products Price elasticity of demand for primary products is usually inelastic –Price volatility Combination of two effects = export earnings instability What about manufactured goods?

7. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 6 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish Exports and imports Import dependence –K, components, raw materials –Balance of payment problems –Cultural imperialism v. ideas A reminder: terms of trade –P X / P M : Prices of average imports relative to average exports

8. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 7 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish Exports and imports Prebisch-Singer Thesis Not only is there a long-term decline in commodity prices… But there is also a long term decline in commodity prices relative to the prices of manufactured goods Thesis based on differences in income elasticity of demand for commodities v. manufactured goods

9. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 8 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish Exports and imports Prebisch-Singer Thesis (cont.) Attempted response? –Import substitution industrialisation –Diversification into manufacturing –But also: Basic v. advanced manufactured goods

10. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 9 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish International trade theory: Criticisms Immobility of factors of production Resource underutilisation -> easy export growth? Technology substitution Consumer sovereignty Slow intrastate factor mobility International market power

11. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 10 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish International trade theory: Criticisms Uncertainty Government intervention –Protection –Industrial policy Foreign ownership

12. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 11 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish International trade: Initial conclusions for developing economies Some preliminary conclusions: –Central role for international trade –Income inequality issues –Gains from trade sometimes limited –Source of capital –Collective self-reliance

13. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 12 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish Import substitution v Export promotion Import substitution –Pre-90s –Requires strong protection –Growth from domestic market –Diversification –Government intervention

14. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 13 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish Import substitution v Export promotion Import substitution - Problems: –Infant industry ‘never grows up’ –Inefficient allocation of resources –Income inequality –Overvalued exchange rates

15. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 14 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish Import substitution v Export promotion Export promotion –Internationally competitive – if successful! –Used by the four tigers? –Primary export expansion? –Manufacturing export expansion?

16. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 15 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish Import substitution v Export promotion Industrialisation strategy approach –A role for industrial policy –Import substitution then Export promotion? –Technology transfer –FDI, joint ventures –Non-preferential but active support for exporters –Industry-specific infrastructure, human capital

17. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 16 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish Exchange rates Overvaluation –Options: Run down reserves / borrow foreign exchange Reduce D (protection) Exchange controls Devalue currency! China…

18. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 17 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish Exchange rates Dual/parallel exchange rates –Declared rate (critical imports) –Undeclared rate (luxury imports) –Corruption! Free-floating exchange rates –Prone to price volatility, speculation Managed floating exchange rate

19. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 18 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish Economic integration Free trade area Customs union Common market Monetary union Why? –Division of labour, economies of scale –Economic benefits v political sovereignty –Convergence / divergence

20. The University of Papua New Guinea Slide 19 Lecture 12: Trade Policy – The Developing World Michael Cornish International trade reform Prospects for developing countries heavily dependent on developed countries Regional integration an obstacle? Lowering of tariffs and non-tariff barriers –Extensive margin v. intensive margin Compensation/assistance for displaced workers? Floating exchange rates – China!