1. The Transition to Electric Bikes in China BAQ 2006, Dec 14 Jonathan Weinert, Inst. of Transp. Studies UC-Davis Ma Zedan, Tsinghua University Christopher Cherry, UC-Berkeley History and Key Factors for Rapid Growth

2. Outline 1.E-bike Background 2.History 3.Key Factors Technical Economic Political Other 4.Conclusions

3. Motivation: 1.Successful & FAST adoption of a new transportation technology due to air quality concerns 2. Apply lessons to: 1.Other technologies 2.Other countries

4. Methodology –Existing Literature –Interviews: 23 e-bike companies, 4 factory visits, 5 dealers, 12 users, 1 gov’t rep. –Surveys 1,000 e-bike users in Shanghai, Kunming, and Shijiazhuang (Weinert, Ma, Yang, Cherry 2006, Cherry and Cervero, 2006)

5. E Bike Background Insert pix

6. E-bike Background Definition: 2-wheeled vehicle (2WV) propelled by electricity and (sometimes) human power. Bicycle-style: Scooter Style: VoltagePowerRangeEfficiency 36-48 V240-350 W30-70 km1.2-1.5 kWh/100km

7. E-bike Growth in China Jamerson, F. and Benjamin, E., 2004 Electric Bicycle World Report, 7th Edition with 2005 update, 2005

8. E-bike Pros and Cons ProsCons “0” tail-pipe emissions 75% Coal electricity production 1 Energy efficient, charged during off- peak Lead-emissions from production and recycling CheapSafety (quiet, fast, inadequate brakes) 1. Cherry, Weinert, Ma (2006)

9. History 1.Phase 1: (1980s) Technology sub-par 2.Phase 2: (early 90s) Technology better, but not as good as incumbent 3.Phase 3: (late 90s-present Technology “competitive” with incumbent Incumbent crippled by regulation ( The Harding Effect ) Other factors

10. E-bike Industry 1998: 10 companies 2005: 498 registered (1,000-5,000 unofficial) Why?: mature, simple technology, weak IP enforcement Size: 10- 200,000 bikes/year Profit margin: 6%

11. The Key Factors

12. Key Factor 1: Technology Batteries Type: Valve-regulated lead-acid –Replaced liquid electrolyte batteries Motor Type: Brushless motors –Longer life, lower maintenance, more power

13. How has e-bike technology improved? 1997-19982006 Manufacturer guaranteed battery lifetime (months) 312 Anticipated battery life (months)7-818-24 Battery energy density (Wh/kg)3040 Motor efficiency50% (1995) 85% E-bike price (USD) ~$300$125-375 Weinert, Ma, Cherry (2006)

14. Key Factor 2: Economics 1.Economics Compact car (gasoline) Annual Cost (USD/yr) 6992160290 770 Fuel economy 0.021 kWh/km 0.015 kWh/km 0.036 L/km 0.04 L/km 0.08 L/km FuelPrice ( $/unit ) 0.083 /kWh 0.25/trip0.41/L0.56/L Fuel Economy 15Wh/km29 km/l27 km/l12.5km/l Km / yr 2,6003,0004,0004,300 10,000 Compact car

15. Economic/Market Factors 2002-06: Gasoline prices rose by 45%(Shanghai) China National Statistics Report (2005) 19972004% change Annual Disposable Income of Urban Households / capita (USD) 6451,17882% % of household expenditures on Transportation and Communications 5.2%11.8%127%

16. Key Factor 3: Policy Factors 1.Gasoline scooters bans: –1994 Tianijn –1996 Shanghai –1998 Guangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Suzhou 2.National E-bike standards (‘99) –The “pedal” loophole: create uniform specs for BSEB and SSEB –Other loopholes (speed, weight, power) 3.Nat’l Road Transportation Safety Law (‘04) –Gave e-bikers right to use bike lane –Gave e-bike industry more confidence

17. E-bikes: a Tale of Two Cities Beijing: –2002, issued e-bike ban effective 06 –2006, amidst strong oppostion, reversed decisions –Strictly enforces standards, SSEBs < 5% Shanghai –Loosely enforced standards, SSEBs >70% –Banned gasoline scooters 1998

18. E-bikes growth compared to other 2WVs (Shanghai) 1.Kang, 2004

19. How have regional policy differences affected e-bike sales? Gov’t Attitude Pro e-bikePro e-bike & LPG scooter NeutralAnti e-bike Factor X?? Factor Y??

20. 4. Other Factors Liberalization of the housing market (started in mid-1990s) SARS: early 2003 Abnormally high summer heat wave (2003) –Why did sales spike

21. Conclusions Technology –Battery life, energy density, motor efficiency Macro-economics –Incomes rose, share spent commuting rose Industry: –Low barriers to entry, more entrants, falling costs National and Local policies –Product standards --> loopholes (SSEB) –Road space

22. So What Was It?… –The technology –The market –Or the policy Or the timely confluence of all three???

23. Acknowledgements Research Supported by: ITS-Davis (Dr. Joan Ogden & Dan Sperling) Hong Kong Fok Ying Tung (Huo Ying Dong) Education Foundation, Project No. 94027 ITS-Berkeley Center for Future Urban Transport-A Volvo Center of Excellence Presentation available at www.jonathanweinert.com/presentations www.jonathanweinert.com/presentations