1. Module 4: Understanding Recent Trends in ICT Policy Dr Tim Kelly, Lead ICT Policy Specialist, infoDev/World Bank Sunday 8 March 2009

2. 2 Agenda Global trends a) Market competition b) Private sector participation c) Independent regulation MegaTrend 1: Convergence MegaTrend 2: From fixed to wireless MegaTrend 3: From narrowband to broadband Groupwork brainstorming exercise: What skills and competences might MCIT-IC require in five years time?

3. 3 Global Trends: Market competition Competition status by region, 2008 Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.

4. 4 Global Trends: Market competition Competition status by service, 2008 Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.

5. 5 Factors driving competition It works –Strong demonstration effect of competitive market structures It is mandated –Regional (e.g., EU) and Global (e.g., WTO) moves towards competitive market rules Facilitated by technology –Many new competitive niches (e.g., VoIP, WiMAX, ISPs) –New techniques for spectrum efficiency and sharing Intermodal competition –Incumbent PTO, cable TV, Internet and spectrum-based services are main platforms Customers demand it –Large users, especially in the financial sector, demand more choice and lower costs Countries allowing VoIP competition Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.

6. 6 Private sector participation Share of privately-owned incumbents, By country (1991-2008) and by region (2008) Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.

7. 7 Independent regulation Number of independent regulators, In total (1990-2008) and by region (2008) Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.

8. 8 MegaTrend 1: Convergence A typology of convergence Source: World Bank (forthcoming) “Information and Communication for Development Report 2009”

9. 9 Examples of convergence Service convergence –Triple Play, Service bundling –eg FIOS in USA offers TV, high- speed internet and voice services over an IP platform Network convergence –Next Generation Networks (NGN) –eg KPTV in the Netherlands is migrating away from separate mobile and fixed networks onto a single NGN Corporate convergence –Mergers, acquisitions, new service development –eg France Telecom has acquired Orange and rebranded its own mobile service and Wanadoo broadband under the Orange brand Regulatory convergence –eg, OFCOM created in UK from five separate agencies NTT: Shift from narrowband to broadband Source: NTT Japan, cited in ITU Trends in Telecom Reform 2008.

10. 10 MegaTrend 2: From fixed to wireless Number of users/subscribers, by service, 1995-2007 (in billions) Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.

11. 11 Policy implications of shift to mobile Mobile overtaking fixed in Egypt (per 100 inhabitants) Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database, MCIT-IC Change in definition of universal service –Universal service becomes possible, as well as universal access –But operation of universal service funds may need review Spectrum becomes key platform for future growth –Can available spectrum meet demand? –Embracing market mechanisms for spectrum allocation Changing definitions of market dominance –To what extent are fixed and mobile services substitutable? –Will broadband internet be provided on a fixed or mobile platform? (or both)

12. 12 MegaTrends 3: From narrow to broadband Number and type of Internet subscribers worldwide, millions, % Source: ITU World Telecom Indicators Database, and World Bank estimates

13. 13 From narrow to broadband in Egypt Number and type of Internet subscribers Egypt, millions, % Source: ITU World Telecom Indicators Database, and MCIT-IC

14. 14 Group Work Exercise: Brainstorming Based on your understanding of the policy trends shaping the global and national ICT policy environments over the next five years: –What are the likely future competences and skills that would be required in MCIT-IC to help prepare for the next five years? In the area of statistics and indicators? In the requirement to provide policy guidance and advice? In serving the industry and people of Egypt? –How can MCIT-IC prepare itself for these challenges? Do these skills and competences already exist in-house? Can they be developed from among the existing staff? What new staff profiles might be needed?