1. Quiz 4: Mean: 7.0/8.0 (= 88%) Median: 7.5/8.0 (= 94%)

2. Reading for this week S. Wooldridge, Bayesian belief networks (linked from class website) Textbook, Chapter 9, Unsupervised Learning (skip section 9.3)Bayesian belief networks

3. Bayesian Networks

4. A patient comes into a doctor’s office with a fever and a bad cough. Hypothesis space H: h 1 : patient has flu h 2 : patient does not have flu Data D: coughing = true, fever = true,, smokes = true

5. Naive Bayes smokesflucoughfever Cause Effects

6. In principle, the full joint distribution can be used to answer any question about probabilities of these combined parameters. However, size of full joint distribution scales exponentially with number of parameters so is expensive to store and to compute with. Full joint probability distribution Fever  Fever Fever  Fever flu p 1 p 2 p 3 p 4  flu p 5 p 6 p 7 p 8 cough  cough Sum of all boxes is 1. fever  fever fever  fever flu p 9 p 10 p 11 p 12  flu p 13 p 14 p 15 p 16 cough  cough  smokes smokes

7. For example, what if we had another attribute, “allergies”? How many probabilities would we need to specify? Full joint probability distribution Fever  Fever Fever  Fever flu p 1 p 2 p 3 p 4  flu p 5 p 6 p 7 p 8 cough  cough fever  fever fever  fever flu p 9 p 10 p 11 p 12  flu p 13 p 14 p 15 p 16 cough  cough  smokes smokes

8. Fever  Fever Fever  Fever flu p 1 p 2 p 3 p 4  flu p 5 p 6 p 7 p 8 cough  cough fever  fever fever  fever flu p 9 p 10 p 11 p 12  flu p 13 p 14 p 15 p 16 cough  cough  smokes smokes Allergy Fever  Fever Fever  Fever flu p 17 p 18 p 19 p 20  flu p 21 p 22 p 23 p 24 cough  cough fever  fever fever  fever flu p 25 p 26 p 27 p 28  flu p 29 p 30 p 31 p 32 cough  cough  smokes smokes  Allergy

9. Fever  Fever Fever  Fever flu p 1 p 2 p 3 p 4  flu p 5 p 6 p 7 p 8 cough  cough fever  fever fever  fever flu p 9 p 10 p 11 p 12  flu p 13 p 14 p 15 p 16 cough  cough  smokes smokes Allergy Fever  Fever Fever  Fever flu p 17 p 18 p 19 p 20  flu p 21 p 22 p 23 p 24 cough  cough fever  fever fever  fever flu p 25 p 26 p 27 p 28  flu p 29 p 30 p 31 p 32 cough  cough  smokes smokes  Allergy But can reduce this if we know which variables are conditionally independent

10. Bayesian networks Idea is to represent dependencies (or causal relations) for all the variables so that space and computation-time requirements are minimized. smokes flu cough fever “Graphical Models”

11. Bayesian Networks = Bayesian Belief Networks = Bayes Nets Bayesian Network: Alternative representation for complete joint probability distribution “Useful for making probabilistic inference about models domains characterized by inherent complexity and uncertainty” Uncertainty can come from: – incomplete knowledge of domain – inherent randomness in behavior in domain

12. true0.01 false0.99 flu smoke cough fever truefalse true0.90.1 false0.20.8 fever flu true0.2 false0.8 smoke truefalse True 0.950.05 TrueFalse0.80.2 FalseTrue0.60.4 false 0.050.95 cough smokeflu Conditional probability tables for each node Example:

13. Inference in Bayesian networks If network is correct, can calculate full joint probability distribution from network. where parents(X i ) denotes specific values of parents of X i.

14. Example Calculate

15. In general... If network is correct, can calculate full joint probability distribution from network. where parents(X i ) denotes specific values of parents of X i. But need efficient algorithms to do this (e.g., “belief propagation”, “Markov Chain Monte Carlo”).

16. Example from the reading:

17. What is the probability that Student A is late? What is the probability that Student B is late?

18. What is the probability that Student A is late? What is the probability that Student B is late? Unconditional (“marginal”) probability. We don’t know if there is a train strike.

19. Now, suppose we know that there is a train strike. How does this revise the probability that the students are late?

20. Evidence: There is a train strike.

21. Now, suppose we know that Student A is late. How does this revise the probability that there is a train strike? How does this revise the probability that Student B is late? Notion of “belief propagation”. Evidence: Student A is late.

22. Now, suppose we know that Student A is late. How does this revise the probability that there is a train strike? How does this revise the probability that Student B is late? Notion of “belief propagation”. Evidence: Student A is late.

23. Another example from the reading: pneumoniasmoking temperaturecough

24. Three types of inference Diagnostic: Use evidence of an effect to infer probability of a cause. – E.g., Evidence: cough=true. What is P(pneumonia | cough)? Causal inference: Use evidence of a cause to infer probability of an effect – E.g., Evidence: pneumonia=true. What is P(cough | pneumonia)? Inter-causal inference: “Explain away” potentially competing causes of a shared effect. – E.g., Evidence: smoking=true. What is P(pneumonia | cough and smoking)?

25. Diagnostic: Evidence: cough=true. What is P(pneumonia | cough)? pneumoniasmoking temperaturecough

26. Diagnostic: Evidence: cough=true. What is P(pneumonia | cough)? pneumoniasmoking temperaturecough

27. Causal: Evidence: pneumonia=true. What is P(cough | pneumonia)? pneumoniasmoking temperaturecough

28. Causal: Evidence: pneumonia=true. What is P(cough | pneumonia)? pneumoniasmoking temperaturecough

29. Inter-causal: Evidence: smoking=true. What is P(pneumonia | cough and smoking)? pneumoniasmoking temperaturecough

31. Math we used: Definition of conditional probability: Bayes Theorem Unconditional (marginal) probability Probability inference in Bayesian networks:

32. Complexity of Bayesian Networks For n random Boolean variables: Full joint probability distribution: 2 n entries Bayesian network with at most k parents per node: – Each conditional probability table: at most 2 k entries – Entire network: n 2 k entries

33. What are the advantages of Bayesian networks? Intuitive, concise representation of joint probability distribution (i.e., conditional dependencies) of a set of random variables. Represents “beliefs and knowledge” about a particular class of situations. Efficient (approximate) inference algorithms Efficient, effective learning algorithms

34. Issues in Bayesian Networks Building / learning network topology Assigning / learning conditional probability tables Approximate inference via sampling

35. Real-World Example: The Lumière Project at Microsoft Research Bayesian network approach to answering user queries about Microsoft Office. “At the time we initiated our project in Bayesian information retrieval, managers in the Office division were finding that users were having difficulty finding assistance efficiently.” “As an example, users working with the Excel spreadsheet might have required assistance with formatting “a graph”. Unfortunately, Excel has no knowledge about the common term, “graph,” and only considered in its keyword indexing the term “chart”.

37. Networks were developed by experts from user modeling studies.

39. Offspring of project was Office Assistant in Office 97, otherwise known as “clippie”. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bt-JXQS0zYc