3. Problem Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on North Carolina coastal resources Extensive development in the coastal zone in recent decades has put more people and property at risk

4. Climate change in coastal North Carolina Sea-level rise  Complete loss of many beaches  Lost property values  Lost recreation and tourism values Increased hurricane activity and intensity  Business interruption  Agricultural losses  Greater damage to forests  Commercial fishing losses

5. Sea-level Rise and Coastal Inundation

6. Land at risk due to sea level rise by 2100

7. In this context, this study … Considers the impacts of climate change on  coastal real estate  coastal recreation and tourism  business activity We utilize a range of modest assumptions for sea-level rise and hurricane intensity increases, not best-case or worst-case scenarios.

8. Coastal Recreation and Tourism

9. Study Beaches

10. Beach Width CountyBeach200320302080 CarteretFort Macon90400 CarteretAtlantic Beach135850 CarteretPine Knoll Shores110600 CarteretIndian Beach / Salter Path90400 CarteretEmerald Isle130800 Onslow-PenderNorth Topsail Beach82320 Onslow-PenderSurf City90400 Onslow-PenderTopsail Beach110600 New HanoverWrightsville Beach1601103 New HanoverCarolina Beach18513528 New HanoverKure Beach130800 New HanoverFort Fisher400350243 BrunswickCaswell Beach80300 BrunswickOak Island120700 BrunswickHolden Beach90400 BrunswickOcean Isle Beach85350 BrunswickSunset Beach115650

13. Impacts on Beach Recreation and Tourism The lost recreation value to local beach goers  $93 million a year by 2030  $223 million a year by 2080

14. Fishing Sites: 22 piers, 28 beaches

16. Impacts on Marine Recreational Fishing The lost recreation value to local shore anglers  $15 million a year by 2030  $17 million a year by 2080

17. Coastal Real Estate

18. Study Area

19. GIS Real Estate Data

20. Inundation for 2080-High

22. Impacts on Coastal Property Value The value of property at risk to sea-level rise in four counties over the next 75 years  $6.9 billion Northern counties more vulnerable than the southern  Dare: 2% to 12% of the total property value

23. Hurricane Activity and Intensity

24. Hurricane Wind Speeds (Fran 1996)

25. Impacts on Business and Industries Business interruption losses in four NC counties due to increases in category 3 hurricane severity  $34 million per storm in 2030  $157 million per storm in 2080

26. Impacts on Agriculture A category X hurricane now causes about Y in damage  1 : $50 million  2 : $200 million  3 : $800 million

27. Impacts on Forestry Increased forest damage associated with an increase in storm severity from category 2 to category 3  $900 million in additional damages

28. Summary: Impacts of Global Warming on NC’s Coastal Economy Over the next 75 years:  Lost recreational and tourism benefits total $3.9 billion  The value of property at risk to sea-level rise in four counties is $6.9 billion  Business interruption, agriculture and forestry losses due to increased storm severity are on the order of $1 billion in additional damage per category 3 storm event

29. http://econ.appstate.edu/climate