1. Agricultural, Water, and Health-Related Satellite Products from NESDIS-STAR Felix Kogan NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research October 2010

2. 2 AVHRR Data for Land Use Sensor: Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Satellites:NOAA-7, 9, 11, 14, 16, 17 (morn.), 18, 19 Data Resolution: Spatial - 4 km (GAC), 8 & 16 km ; Temporal - 7-day composite Period: 30-year(1981-2010) Coverage: World (75 N to 55 S) Channels: VIS (ch1), NIR (ch2), Thermal (ch4, ch5)

3. 3 THEORY Vegetation vs. VIS & NIR reflectance

4. 4 THEORY Crops’ Reflectance (Citrus, Tomatoes, Sorghum, Cotton) VIS reflectance depends on CHLOROPHYLL CAROTENOID NIR reflectance depends on WATER CONTENT CELL STRUCTURE

5. 5 NDVI & Reflectance Cover TypeCh1Ch2NDVI Vegetation: Dense.050.1500.500 Medium.080.1100.140 Light.100.1200.090 Bare Soil.269.2830.025 Clouds.227.2280.002 Water.022.013-0.26 NDVI= (Ch2-Ch1)/(Ch2+Ch1)

6. 6 NDVI & Smoothed NDVI Eliminate high frequency noise Emphasize seasonal cycle Separate medium & low frequency variations

7. 7 NDVI & Rainfall (% mean), SUDAN 95% 115% 73% 51%

8. 8 NDVI & BT by Ecosystem Type Central USA

9. 9 AVHRR PRODUCTS Vegetation condition index (VCI), values 0 - 100 VCI=(NDVI-NDVImin)/(NDVImax-NDVImin) NDVImax, and NDVImin – climatology (1981-2000 maximum and minimum NDVI for a pixel; Temperature condition index (TCI), values 0 - 100 TCI=(BTmax-BTmin)/(BTmax-BTmin) NDVImax, and NDVImin – climatology (1981-2000 maximum and minimum NDVI for a pixel Vegetation Health Index (VHI), values 0 – 100 VHI=a*VCI+(1-a)*TCI 0 – indicates extreme stress 100 – indicates favorable conditions MOISTURE THERMAL VEG. HEALTH

10. NDVI & Vegetation Health (VH) 10 NDVI VH

11. 11 Drought 1988, USA June 28 Severe Moisture and Thermal Vegetation Stress

12. 12 Drought 1988, Week 27, Satellite & In Situ Data

13. 13 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), USSR southeast

14. 14 Wheat Density vs VCI 1991 1992 May Jun Jul Aug Sep

15. Sep 30, 2010: VCI vs Soil Moisture UKRAINE 15 VCI 0-20 cm Soil Moisture Anomaly

16. 16 VHI and Biomass, Mongolia 1988 1989

17. 17 Corn Yield vs VCI Midwest, USA Corn Yield - normalized for Midwestern CRD VCI – mean for CRD

18. 18 VH and Crop Yield MOROCCO -Wheat MONGOLIA - Pasture RUSSIARUSSIA ARGENTINAARGENTINA Kansas, USA

19. 19 Correlation of Wheat Yield anomaly with VH Indices, Precipitation & Temperature anomaly Saratov, RUSSIA dY vs VHI, VCI & TCI dY vs dP dY vs dT Yield

20. dY vs VCI Correlation, KANSAS P S H H P HH

21. Modeling Agricultural Production KANSAS, USA

22. 22 Vegetation Health and Agriculture, UKRAINE 2003 – Intensive Drought (red) caused 35% losses in grain yield (1.84 t/ha) versus the years before and after 2002 & 2004 – NOAA-16 satellite identify good vegetation health (green) resulted in high yield 2.75 & 2.84 t/ha ADDRESS: - Ecosystem Health - Agriculture - Food Security PLAN Use NOAA/AVHRR Data 4 km resolution 2.7 1.8 2.8 t/ha

23. 2007 Drought Dynamics: Focus on Southern RUSSIA & UKRAINE from NOAA-18 Vegetation Health Index (VHI) -Vegetation Health (red) deteriorated from April through the end of the growing season, especially in the main areas of winter wheat -VHI is derived from NOAA/AVHRR data and estimates greenness, vigor and thermal conditions of vegetation UKRAINE Russia Turkey Rumania Beloruss BulgariaGeorgia SyriaIraq

24. www.rsindexbasedcropinsurance2010.com 24 JUNE

25. Vegetation Condition 2010 25

26. Vegetation Health Dynamics, USA DROUGHT DETECTION (DD)

27. 27 DD: Drought Dynamics from Vegetation Health Index Drought No Drought 1999 2000

28. DD: 2007 Vegetation Health, Odessa obl., UKRAINE 28 DROUGHT Healthy Moisture Thermal

29. Drought Area & Intensity (DAI) Severe-to-Exceptional Drought (% from the World area), 2000-2010 29

30. 30 DAI: Estimated from AVHRR-based Vegetation Health Index No Data

31. DAI: UKRAINE, All MAX 10% 20% 50% 80%

32. Extreme Drought Area, 1991-2009

33. Vegetation stress, June, 2008 DROUHGT-red Soil Saturation- white

34. Soil Saturation Index (SSI) June 8-27, 2008, Midwest, USA June 8-14 June 15-21 June 22-27

35. Area (% from a state) of saturated and flooded soil Midwestern states, USA, 2008 Week MAY JUNE % 1 15 31 1 15

36. 36 Web http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov /smcd/emb/vci

37. Vegetation Health October 21, 2010 37

38. Vegetation Health October 21 38

39. Drought & Fire Risk October 21, 2010 39 Drought Fire Risk

40. Percent drought area in the major corn belt of BRAZIL 40

41. Oct 21, 2010 VH Change from Oct 14, 2010 (A) & Oct 21, 2009 (B) 41

42. Drought change on Oct 21, 2010 42

43. Wheat Yield RUSSIA Russia produces 65% WW & 35% SW Figure shows dynamics of Vegetation health (VH) 2007 WW analogue was 2001 VH WW yield is expected at or 1-3% below LTT or 1.9 t/ha Figure shows dynamics of Vegetation health (VH) 2007 SW analogue was 2001 VH SW yield is expected 5-7% above long-term trend (LTT) Total wheat is expected at or slightly below LTT (1.96 t/ha)

44. Mean Moisture (VCI) & Thermal (TCI) conditions for the major crop growing area of BRAZIL, 2010 44

45. Vegetation Health, Soybeans area, BRAZIL 45

46. VCI & TCI Dynamics Soybeans area 2010 vs 2008, BRAZIL 46

47. PROBLEMS? 47

48. NDVI 2010 week 40 GVI-x N18 MGVI N19 Difference

49. BT4 2010 week 40 MGVI N18 MGVI N19 Difference