1. ® IBM Software Group © 2013 IBM Corporation Innovation for a smarter planet Timeboxes in a New Paradigm of Behavior Modeling Barclay Brown, ESEP IBM barclayb@us.ibm.com

2. IBM Software Group | Rational software Innovation for a smarter planet Behavior  Behavior of organizations and systems is modeled in various ways  Behavior refers to the activities of organizations and technological systems, and their interactions  What is referred to as behavior here has also been described as:  Organizational behavior  Business processes  System functional flow  Activity Flow  Task procedures  Use case flow of events  Operational scenarios  Concept of Operations (CONOPS) Organization System

3. IBM Software Group | Rational software Innovation for a smarter planet Two Paradigms  Two primary paradigms, the process paradigm and the systems paradigm.  Process paradigm: behavior is described in processes, which consist of sequences of activities.  Systems paradigm, behavior is described as sequences of activities and interactions between systems, sub-systems and users, in order to achieve a user goal. New Energy Policy Process Claim Form Detect Target Order a Book Online Brighten Screen in Sunlight Levels of Abstraction

4. IBM Software Group | Rational software Innovation for a smarter planet A Personal Example  How to model a life?  Processes?  A day in the life  Career, family, hobby processes?  Use Cases? A complex system Complex system interaction Complex systems using technology “The unexamined [unmodeled?] life is not worth living” - Socrates “The unexamined [unmodeled?] life is not worth living” - Socrates

5. IBM Software Group | Rational software Innovation for a smarter planet Key Concept: Time and Sequence  The key to untangling and understanding complex processes is the representation of time.  Time = Past + Present + Future  The past looks linear, like a timeline  The present looks simultaneous, like a process  The future looks timeboxed, like a plan

6. IBM Software Group | Rational software Innovation for a smarter planet Past, Present and Future  Past events are easy to see on a linear timeline (we know when they happened)  A process can be seen as happening now, in the present (but of course this isn’t really true—the present is of infinitesimally short duration, so nothing actually happens in the present)  The future really contains processes contained in timeboxes TIMELINE PRESENT

7. IBM Software Group | Rational software Innovation for a smarter planet PASTFUTURE PRESENT An Example: he Heart’s Past, Present and Future

8. IBM Software Group | Rational software Innovation for a smarter planet Timelines: A natural view of time http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/space-shuttle-retirement-timeline/

9. IBM Software Group | Rational software Innovation for a smarter planet Timeboxes Boxes of time Have start time, end time and duration –Any or all of these may be unknown All start/end dates/times are ranges –11/11/13 means the 24 hour period starting at midnight –3:05pm means the 60 second period starting 3:05:00 (or 3:04:31?) –Q2 means the 90 day period beginning April 1. Durations ideally also include uncertainty –Best case: 2 hours –Worst case: 5 hours –Most likely case: 3 hours –Triangular distribution used to express estimates Actual outcome has skewed distribution (more often late then early) Timeboxes “connect” to each other only in time

10. IBM Software Group | Rational software Innovation for a smarter planet Timebox Examples RFP Response Q2-Q3 Q2 Q3 July 1, 00:00:00 Sep 30, 23:59:59 Implement Interface by Friday ? Friday 2-4 hours Timeboxes on a timeline

11. IBM Software Group | Rational software Innovation for a smarter planet Timeboxes with Timelines Examples (cont’d)

12. IBM Software Group | Rational software Innovation for a smarter planet Ongoing Processes  Indeterminate start, end and duration  Shows relative time positioning  Allows for zooming in and out in modeling tools ABSTRACT TIMELINE

13. IBM Software Group | Rational software Innovation for a smarter planet Nesting/Recursion in Timeboxes  A timebox may contain other timeboxes  A timebox may contain a timeline or not.  If a timebox does contain a timeline, the timeline must synchronize with all other timelines  If it does not, then contained timeboxes are simply grouped and assumed to all occur within the interval of the containing timebox.

14. IBM Software Group | Rational software Innovation for a smarter planet Benefits of Timeboxes in Behaviour modelling  Processes can be shown in relation to the passage of time, without committing individual process elements to specific points in time.  Iterative and conditional process flows can be shown where they are planned to occur in time, without reducing them to a series of specific events and activities.  Processes can be shown as related to each other in time without implying causal relationships and direct connections.  The difference between past, present and future events and activities, is incorporated in a single model. Planned (future) activities flow seamlessly into the past as uncertainty is eliminated.  Enough information about the uncertainty of timing is included that overall behavioural models can be constructed and simulated using Monte Carlo and other simulation techniques.  Variable precision--start, end and duration times can be expressed in scales of seconds, minutes, days, months or years. (Zooming in and out in time can be automated in graphical tools.)

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