1. Congressional Politics in the Northwest Parallels between 1994, 2006 in Washington’s 5 th District

2. Questions for discussion Why did the Northwest enjoy unprecedented influence in Congress between 1970 and 1995? Why did the Northwest enjoy unprecedented influence in Congress between 1970 and 1995? What were themes and messages in House races in 1994, 2006? What were themes and messages in House races in 1994, 2006? How have demographic & economic changes affected Northwest politics? How have demographic & economic changes affected Northwest politics? How will national politics affect this race? How will national politics affect this race?

3. Where is the 5 th District?

4. Who is this man?

5. Thomas S. Foley Thomas S. Foley Represented 5 th District, 1965-1995 Represented 5 th District, 1965-1995 Speaker of the U.S. House, 1989-1995 Speaker of the U.S. House, 1989-1995 U.S. ambassador to Japan, 1997-2001 U.S. ambassador to Japan, 1997-2001

6. Why was Foley so successful? Family: Deep roots in eastern Washington Family: Deep roots in eastern Washington Mentors: Sens. Henry Jackson and Warren Magnuson Mentors: Sens. Henry Jackson and Warren Magnuson “In politics, it’s better to be lucky than to be good… Tom Foley was both.” “In politics, it’s better to be lucky than to be good… Tom Foley was both.”

7. Why was Foley so successful? Good committee assignments: Agriculture, Interior Good committee assignments: Agriculture, Interior Moderate Democrat, attracted Republican support Moderate Democrat, attracted Republican support In the right place at the right time to advance in leadership In the right place at the right time to advance in leadership Survived ‘Reagan Revolution’ of 1980 (other Democrats lost) Survived ‘Reagan Revolution’ of 1980 (other Democrats lost) Succeeded Jim Wright as speaker, 1989 Succeeded Jim Wright as speaker, 1989

8. Foley’s Qualities Memory, connections Memory, connections Story teller, sense of humor Story teller, sense of humor Attention to process, rather than issues Attention to process, rather than issues Defender of Congress as an institution Defender of Congress as an institution

9. Foley’s opponents 1966-1992: series of ‘dingbats’ 1966-1992: series of ‘dingbats’ Single-issue candidates Single-issue candidates Extremists Extremists Underfunded, lacked support of state party Underfunded, lacked support of state party Why no serious opposition? Why no serious opposition? Foley co-opted Spokane business establishment Foley co-opted Spokane business establishment Republicans recognized value of Foley’s seniority Republicans recognized value of Foley’s seniority He paid attention to his constituency He paid attention to his constituency

10. 1994: Turning point Demographic changes in 5 th District Demographic changes in 5 th District Migration, especially from California Migration, especially from California Aging of traditional Foley voters Aging of traditional Foley voters Economics Economics Decline of unions Decline of unions Shift away from agricultural base Shift away from agricultural base Resource management conflicts (timber, mining) Resource management conflicts (timber, mining)

11. Coincidence of issues (1992-94) Clinton’s unpopularity Clinton’s unpopularity Term limits (and Foley’s longevity in Washington) Term limits (and Foley’s longevity in Washington) House Bank, Post Office scandals House Bank, Post Office scandals Anti-incumbent sentiment Anti-incumbent sentiment

13. A credible GOP opponent George Nethercutt George Nethercutt WSU graduate WSU graduate Former U.S. Senate aide Former U.S. Senate aide Attorney, civic volunteer Attorney, civic volunteer Spokane County GOP chairman Spokane County GOP chairman

14. A credible GOP opponent George Nethercutt George Nethercutt Theme: ‘the only Republican who can beat Tom Foley’ Theme: ‘the only Republican who can beat Tom Foley’ Defeated two former Foley opponents in September primary Defeated two former Foley opponents in September primary

15. The 1994 Campaign The Gingrich factor The Gingrich factor ‘Contract with America’ ‘Contract with America’ Alliance with Rush Limbaugh, talk radio Alliance with Rush Limbaugh, talk radio Attempt to nationalize House elections Attempt to nationalize House elections Referendum on Clinton’s record Referendum on Clinton’s record

16. Campaign strategy Which issues do you think George Nethercutt emphasized in his challenge? Which issues do you think George Nethercutt emphasized in his challenge? How did he portray himself to voters? How did he portray himself to voters? Which issues did Foley emphasize in his bid for re-election? Which issues did Foley emphasize in his bid for re-election? How did he defend his record? How did he defend his record?

17. Nethercutt’s message

18. TV commercials TV commercials 30 years 30 years Minor Problem Minor Problem Bonanza Bonanza

19. Foley’s message TV commercials TV commercials Call Call Talk Talk Cuts Cuts

20. The Results District 5 District 5 Nethercutt, 110,057 (50.9%) Nethercutt, 110,057 (50.9%) Foley, 106,075 (49.1%) Foley, 106,075 (49.1%) Nationally Nationally Republicans take control of House for first time since 1954 Republicans take control of House for first time since 1954 Newt Gingrich becomes speaker of the House Newt Gingrich becomes speaker of the House

21. Could Foley have survived? Yes, but… Yes, but… …with a different strategy …with a different strategy Starting earlier (after 1992 election) Starting earlier (after 1992 election) Mending fences in district, especially with liberals Mending fences in district, especially with liberals Pushing to reform House rules, policies Pushing to reform House rules, policies …and different tactics …and different tactics More aggressive ads, emphasizing value of seniority More aggressive ads, emphasizing value of seniority Rapid-response squad to Republican attacks Rapid-response squad to Republican attacks

22. The rest of the story Nethercutt reneges on pledge to retire after 3 terms, serves five terms Nethercutt reneges on pledge to retire after 3 terms, serves five terms Challenges Patty Murray for U.S. Senate in 2004 Challenges Patty Murray for U.S. Senate in 2004 Murray takes 55% of vote Murray takes 55% of vote Cathy McMorris elected to replace Nethercutt Cathy McMorris elected to replace Nethercutt

23. 2006: Parallels to 1994? Unnpopular president Unnpopular president Scandals in Congress Scandals in Congress Frustration with ‘gridlock’ Frustration with ‘gridlock’ Anti-incumbent sentiment Anti-incumbent sentiment Attempt to make congressional elections national referendum Attempt to make congressional elections national referendum

24. Republican incumbent Cathy McMorris Cathy McMorris Born 1969 Born 1969 Family orchard, fruit stand in Stevens County Family orchard, fruit stand in Stevens County 10 years in Washington Legislature 10 years in Washington Legislature Elected to Congress, 2004, with 59% of vote Elected to Congress, 2004, with 59% of vote

25. Democratic challenger Peter Goldmark Peter Goldmark Bron 1945 Bron 1945 Rancher from Okanogan Rancher from Okanogan Ph.D. scientist Ph.D. scientist Former Washington state secretary of agriculture, WSU regent Former Washington state secretary of agriculture, WSU regent

26. Campaign strategies Which issues do you think Peter Goldmark is raising in his challenge? Which issues do you think Peter Goldmark is raising in his challenge? What aspects of his background does he emphasize? What aspects of his background does he emphasize? Which issues is Cathy McMorris emphasizing in her bid for re-election? Which issues is Cathy McMorris emphasizing in her bid for re-election? How does she defend her record? How does she defend her record? Who do you think will win? Who do you think will win?

27. Campaign commercials http://www.votepetergoldmark.com/ http://www.votepetergoldmark.com/ http://www.votepetergoldmark.com/ http://www.cathyforcongress.com/cathyforcon gress/ http://www.cathyforcongress.com/cathyforcon gress/ http://www.cathyforcongress.com/cathyforcon gress/ http://www.cathyforcongress.com/cathyforcon gress/

28. Latest polling Results Results Cathy McMorris (R): 45 percent Cathy McMorris (R): 45 percent Peter Goldmark (D): 38 percent Peter Goldmark (D): 38 percent Methodology Methodology 350 interviews with random sample of likely voters. 350 interviews with random sample of likely voters. Interviews conducted Sept, 13-17, 2006. Interviews conducted Sept, 13-17, 2006. Sampling error is +/- 5.2 percent. Sampling error is +/- 5.2 percent. Pollster: Lake Research (hired by Goldmark) Pollster: Lake Research (hired by Goldmark)

29. What happens next? Democrats spending money on Goldmark ads: Democrats spending money on Goldmark ads: “McMorris’s Democratic opponent is Peter Goldmark, a rancher whose surprising strength has attracted the support of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which last week began spending $323,000 on television ads opposing McMorris.” (The Washington Post, 10/24) “McMorris’s Democratic opponent is Peter Goldmark, a rancher whose surprising strength has attracted the support of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which last week began spending $323,000 on television ads opposing McMorris.” (The Washington Post, 10/24) http://www.dccc.org/races/emerging_races/ http://www.dccc.org/races/emerging_races/ http://www.dccc.org/races/emerging_races/ Will RCCC come to McMorris’ defense? Will RCCC come to McMorris’ defense?