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Www.zillow.com/research | 0 /zillow Millennials, Rents, and Mortgages: Challenges for the future Dr. Skylar Olsen, Senior Economist.

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Presentation on theme: "Www.zillow.com/research | 0 /zillow Millennials, Rents, and Mortgages: Challenges for the future Dr. Skylar Olsen, Senior Economist."— Presentation transcript:

1 www.zillow.com/research | 0 /zillow Millennials, Rents, and Mortgages: Challenges for the future Dr. Skylar Olsen, Senior Economist

2 www.zillow.com/research | 1 /zillow The state of the market: currently down 10.1% from peak Source: Zillow

3 www.zillow.com/research | 2 /zillow Seattle Metro: currently down 11.7% from peak Source: Zillow

4 www.zillow.com/research | 3 /zillow All but 1 top 30 metro areas show annual home value appreciation Source: Zillow

5 www.zillow.com/research | 4 /zillow Seattle metro leads Puget Sound in annual home value gain

6 www.zillow.com/research | 5 /zillow Most ZIP codes in the Seattle metro saw annual value gains King CountyMetro (Snohomish, King, Pierce)

7 www.zillow.com/research | 6 /zillow Appreciation is slowing down: United States

8 www.zillow.com/research | 7 /zillow Appreciation is slowing down: Seattle

9 www.zillow.com/research | 8 /zillow Returning inventory softens appreciation Source: Zillow

10 www.zillow.com/research | 9 /zillow Negative equity has declined steadily since 2012 Q1 9 Source: Zillow (2014 Q2)

11 www.zillow.com/research | 10 /zillow But remains widespread, 17% nationally 10 Source: Zillow (2014 Q2)

12 www.zillow.com/research | 11 /zillow Negative equity remains widespread, 17% nationally 11 Source: Zillow (2014 Q2)

13 www.zillow.com/research | 12 /zillow Source: Zillow Local negative equity is not uniform

14 www.zillow.com/research | 13 /zillow Loan-to-value distribution of mortgaged homeowners (U.S.) 13 Source: Zillow (2014 Q2)

15 www.zillow.com/research | 14 /zillow Loan-to-value distribution of mortgaged homeowners (Seattle) 14 Source: Zillow (2014 Q2)

16 www.zillow.com/research | 15 /zillow Negative Equity: Share of underwater homes by value tier 15 Source: Zillow (2014 Q2)

17 www.zillow.com/research | 16 /zillow United States: Price-to-income ratio and affordability (2014 Q2) Source: Zillow

18 www.zillow.com/research | 17 /zillow Seattle: Price-to-income ratio and affordability (2014 Q2) Source: Zillow

19 www.zillow.com/research | 18 /zillow San Jose: Price-to-income ratio and affordability (2014 Q2) Source: Zillow

20 www.zillow.com/research | 19 /zillow Mortgage affordability in the largest metropolitan areas Source: Zillow 19

21 www.zillow.com/research | 20 /zillow Rent affordability below historical average in most metro areas Source: Zillow 20

22 www.zillow.com/research | 21 /zillow Market response to rental demand 21 Source: Current Population Survey

23 www.zillow.com/research | 22 /zillow Recovery is Transitioning From constrained supply driven price appreciation To a recovery driven by fundamentals

24 www.zillow.com/research | 23 /zillow Home sales continue to increase annually from their trough Source: NAR, Census

25 www.zillow.com/research | 24 /zillow New home sales strongest in South and West regions Source: NAR, Census

26 www.zillow.com/research | 25 /zillow Renter households are forming faster than owner households 25 Source: Current Population Survey

27 www.zillow.com/research | 26 /zillow Millennial renters are optimistic about homeownership… 83 percent of millennial renters are “confident” or “somewhat confident” that they will eventually buy a home. Source: Zillow U.S. Housing Confidence Survey, July 2014

28 www.zillow.com/research | 27 /zillow …But their timelines for when they expect to buy a home have been delayed somewhat. Generation X remains a plurality of expected new home buyers over the next year, but looking forward 1 to 5 years out, millennials will become the plurality. Source: Zillow U.S. Housing Confidence Survey, July 2014

29 www.zillow.com/research | 28 /zillow In some respects, millennials are more conventional in their views on home ownership than older generations Nearly two-thirds of millennials think owning a home is necessary to live the “American Dream” and almost half agree that owning a home is necessary to be a “respected member of society.” Source: Zillow U.S. Housing Confidence Survey, July 2014

30 www.zillow.com/research | 29 /zillow Young people are increasingly delaying the hallmarks of adulthood: marriage, family and homeownership www.zillow.com/research | 29 Source: Zillow analysis of March Current Population Survey, 1976-2013, made available by IPUMS USA Despite these long-term trends, homeownership is much more cyclical than either marriage or child rearing: During the long housing boom from 1992 to 2005, the ownership rate among this group increased 6 pts while the share married fell 6 pts and the share with children fell 2 pts.

31 www.zillow.com/research | 30 /zillow Even if employed, low rental affordability leaves many struggling to save for a down payment www.zillow.com/research | 30

32 www.zillow.com/research | 31 /zillow Seattle: Price-to-income ratio and affordability (2014 Q2) Source: Zillow

33 www.zillow.com/research | 32 /zillow Coping strategy: return to the nest

34 www.zillow.com/research | 33 /zillow Coping strategy: double up

35 www.zillow.com/research | 34 /zillow Coping strategy: double up

36 www.zillow.com/research | 35 /zillow Young adults have found jobs, but there are more part-time workers and incomes have suffered www.zillow.com/research | 35 Source: Zillow analysis of March Current Population Survey, 2010 and 2013, made available by IPUMS USA

37 www.zillow.com/research | 36 /zillow Young adults have found jobs, but there are more part-time workers and incomes have suffered www.zillow.com/research | 36 Source: Zillow analysis of March Current Population Survey, 2010 and 2013, made available by IPUMS USA

38 www.zillow.com/research | 37 /zillow Signs of credit easing to marginal buyers

39 www.zillow.com/research | 38 /zillow Demand however is slow to return

40 www.zillow.com/research | 39 /zillow Forecasts

41 www.zillow.com/research | 40 /zillow Zillow home value forecast: August 2014 to August 2015 Source: Zillow

42 www.zillow.com/research | 41 /zillow Forecasted annual appreciation: ZIP codes in King County

43 #ZillowSummit About Zillow Real Estate Research  Zillow Home Value Index  Zillow Rent Index  Zillow Home Value Forecast  Negative equity  Sale prices VISIT ZILLOW RESEARCH: www.zillow.com/research In-depth research, monthly reports and interactive visuals …AND MANY MORE!  Rental prices  Home sales  $ value/square foot  Price-to-income ratios  Affordability REAL ESTATE METRICS:

44 www.zillow.com/research | 43 /zillow


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