1. The NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (MAP) Program Don Anderson NASA Headquarters CMAI Meeting NASA GISS April 20, 2006

2. 2011 Overarching Vision “… a new approach is needed for climate model development. It is not practical for a single group to have expertise in all the components of a global model, as the models are becoming more complex and include more physical and biological processes. Models for long-term climate must extend from the deep ocean to the upper atmosphere, and components of the global system that were once treated as specified boundary conditions or neglected altogether must now be simulated and allowed to interact with other parts of the model. …” GSFC Earth-Sun Exploration Division 2006 Strategic Plan

3. 2011 Vision - Science Drivers Coupled Earth System models and advanced data assimilation systems System components fully interactive: coupled ocean, atmosphere, land, sea-ice, chemistry, biosphere executing multiple ‘ what if ’ scenarios Models easily reconfigured for short-term prediction (weather & extreme events) to seasonal to long-term climate, global and regional Contributions to climate model development from diverse expert groups; multiple discipline (chemistry, pollution transport, land, sea-ice, atmosphere … ) collaboration Implementation of 4D Variational data assimilation system with new data types Open standards Increased model & analysis fidelity Enhanced resolution (horizontal, vertical, temporal, spectral) Estimates of Uncertainty/reliability large ensembles (perturbed initial conditions, multi-Center initial states, multi-Center models) Re-emphasis of data (satellite and in-situ observations for validation and simulation; preparation for new missions) Greatly enhanced validation efforts with rapid access to data and model output from multiple Centers Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) Enhanced tools for testing new methods at reduced effort and cost Combinatorial problem in test and evaluation (many components, many versions requiring “system-level” validation)

4. MAP NRA & the MAP Modeling Environment(ME) Program or Branch #1 Modeling 1 Program or Branch #2 Modeling 2 Program or Branch #3 Modeling 3 Program or Branch #N Modeling N Crosscutting Themes Focus Areas Model, Analysis, Prediction Program / Multi-investigator proposals Core Integration Team External NRA Proposals ESMF MAP Modeling Environment CMAIGMIECCO II GISS Model E …

5. MAP grant example: Schematic of the Carbon Data Assimilation System Some ‘Element’ partners: JPL, Harvard, MIT, GISS, CSI, WHOI, Ames, MSFC [DOE, NSF, NOAA,NASA] => ESMF

6. ODAS GEOS-5 GCM STRUCTURE AGCM CAP HISTORY RADIATION COLUMN PHYSICS SOLAR IR MOIST TURB SURFACE CHEM LAKE OCEAN SKIN DYNAMICS GWDFVCORE (Ts,Fi...) VEGDYN CATCH ICE LAND (Ts,Fi...) SURFACE DYNAMICS Data AGCM COUPLED OGCM Data OGCM Poseidon OBIO CICE MOM4 MITogcm Poseidon

7. African SAL: Impact on tropical cyclogenesis - hypothesize to be a hurricane suppressant, in an ocean marginally suitable for hurricane generation; examine SAL impact on microphyiscs, thermodynamic instability, shear,airmass dessication ESS Planned Hurricane Field Campaign: NAMMA-06 Out of Africa: African Easterly Waves are the progenitors of many late-season, strong category hurricanes that strike the U.S. Leverages off AMMA SOP-3 and will be based in Cape Verde Multidisciplinary approach involving Weather, Water & Energy, Composition foci Partnering with European consortium, NOAA HRD NAMMA-06 science in line with CCSP objectives Platforms to include DC-8, Aerosonde, TOGA & NPOL radars, micropulse lidars

8. MAP Modeling Environment -2006 1. Testing a “new” coupled model configuration: a comparison of different ocean components Goal to support multiple global “what-if” analysis Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere Long time series analysis and comparison to satellite data record 2. Coupling a regional model with a global model Goal to illustrate global to regional interface & to demonstrate capability to support real-time field experiments ( Support NAMMA, A-Train, TRMM in both 1&2 ) 3. MERRA: Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications Develop, validate, and disseminate a global retrospective analysis dataset. The project time period will cover the modern era of remotely sensed data, from 1979 through the present. The special focus of the atmospheric assimilation will be the hydrological cycle.

9. MAPME 2006 System Prototyping 1. NASA Ames Mt. View, California SPoRT Facility NASA Marshall Huntsville, Alabama COMPUTING NODES NAS MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS SCIENCE ANALYSIS GEOS5/OGCM/ MOM4 GEOS5/OGCM/ MOM4 GEOS5/MODEL GEOS5/OGCM/ POSEIDON GEOS5/OGCM/ POSEIDON GEOS5/DAS WRF EXTERNAL MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS EXPERIMENT: Embed WRF w/ GEOS5 GEOS5/OGCM/ POSEIDON GEOS5/OGCM/ POSEIDON WRF/MODEL MSFC OUTPUT PORTALS DATA NODES Prepare Map & Movies & Web Access Graphics, Movies, Satellite Data SIVO/NCCS Analysis Visualization All model Outputs Satellite Data Ocean Color Group Other Model Output

10. NASA Ames Mt. View, California National Lambda Rail (10 - 40 Gb/s) INTEL Corp Portland, Oregon Northrop Grumman McLean, Virginia NASA Goddard Greenbelt, Maryland Conventional Network (600 Mb/s) DISTRIBUTED COMPUTING NODES NEXT-GENERATION NETWORKS NCCS/NAS MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS SCIENCE ANALYSIS GEOS5/OGCM/ MOM4 GEOS5/OGCM/ MOM4 GEOS5/OGCM/ MOM4 GEOS5/OGCM/ POSEIDON GEOS5/OGCM/ POSEIDON GEOS5/OGCM/ POSEIDON MAPME 2006 System Prototyping 2. DAAC DATA PORTALS GFDL/NCDC MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS EXPERIMENT: Configure GEOS5 w/ Different Ocean Models EXTERNAL COLLABORATORS Model to model & model to data validation / comparisons

11. Configure model, set up work flow all remotely initiated via Web - ultimately SOA Development Environment Experimentation Environment Summary of Capabilities Visualization & Analysis Servers providing on-demand support Robust and non-intrusive infrastructure support (security working across domains, network performance QOS,…) Cross-site workflow (data/jobs) Remotely initiated via web schedule, monitor, manage with greater autonomy across multi-site cyber-infrastructure Grey denotes Option turned off ESMF Re-configurable models turn on/off components, on/off outputs user settable via web service* Substantial compute resources connected by high-speed networks load-balanced scheduled vs. queued transparent site selection

12. Coupled Full-Earth Modeling and Data Assimilation System for Earth-Sun Science 2005 Project Hurricane 2006 NASA MAP Modeling Environment fvGCM (GEOS4) GEOS-5 JCSDA/GSIProject Columbia Integrating Earth System Modeling and Observations

13. Process Models Component Models Multi-component Models Fully Interactive Earth System Model MAP Modeling Environment Development Path Knights of the NASA Earth Science Community “The Holy Grail”

14. Don’s Vision