1. Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas
Update prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
7 December 2009
For Real-time information:

2. Outline Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status
Monsoons Current Status
Southern Hemisphere Circulation
Rainfall & Temperature Patterns
NCEP/GFS Model Forecast
Forecast Verification

3. Highlights
Australia: Dry weather returned to most of Australia following last week’s soaking rainfall in the southeast. The GFS predicts below-average rainfall across eastern Australia’s croplands during the next week.
Southern Africa: Widely scattered showers fell across portions of South Africa’s maize triangle during the last 7 days. The GFS predicts light showers to near-normal rainfall across this region during the next two weeks.
South America: Much above-average rainfall continued across Rio Grande do Sul and northeastern Argentina. Seasonable rainfall also fell across Brazil’s key soybean regions, including the northeastern interior. Rainfall lessened across Argentina, with cool overnight temperatures overspreading Buenos Aires.

4. ENSO Current Status General Summary:
El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC - 2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter
During the last 4 weeks (8 Nov – 5 Dec 2009), SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180° and 130°W.
For more information go to:

5. MJO Current Status MJO Index -- Recent Evolution
The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes
The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO
Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.
Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength
Line colors distinguish different months
MJO Index -- Recent Evolution
Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast
RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days
light gray shading: 90% of forecasts
dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts
Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members
Green Line – Ensemble Mean
The MJO index amplitude continued to decrease during the previous week, indicating little to no presence of an MJO feature in the tropics.
The GEFS predictions of the MJO index indicates no MJO presence during the upcoming week, though the model consensus indicates development of an eastward propagating MJO signal during week 2.
For more information go to:

6. Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status
South America
Southern Africa
Australia
Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days
Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days
Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days
Monsoon Season: NOV-APR
Monsoon Season: NOV-APR
Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR
During the last 90 days below-average precipitation across northern and western South America, including western and central Argentina, contrasted with near- to above-average rainfall across Brazil’s center west soybean regions. Much above-average rainfall was observed across southern Brazil.
During the last 90 days, near-average precipitation was observed across most of interior southern Africa, though sub-average rainfall was observed in portions of South Africa’s key corn growing regions.
Consistent with the effects of ElNino in the equatorial Pacific, sub-average rainfall was observed across eastern Australia’s summer crop regions.
For more information go to:

7. Southern Hemisphere Circulation
200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days A C A
Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations.
Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.
During 29 Nov – 5 Dec 2009, an enhanced anomalous 200-hPa cyclonic circulation was observed over southeastern Australia. An enhanced anomalous anticyclonic circulation was observed just off the coast of eastern South America.
Below-normal low level temperature anomalies were observed over southeastern Australia (bottom panel, blue circle) in association with the enhanced upper-level cyclonic circulation.

8. Southern Hemisphere Circulation
Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days
Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions.
Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions.
CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.
During 29 Nov – 5 Dec 2009, strong anomalous sinking motion (positive omega, blue oval top panel) corresponded to dry conditions over eastern Australia. Enhanced rising motion (negative omega, red oval top panel) corresponded to continued wet weather across southern Brazil, with rain pushing westward into northern and northwestern Argentina.

9. Australia Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns
GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days
During the last 7 days, mostly dry weather continued across eastern Australia’s primary summer crop farmlands (brown oval). Dryness overspread previously wet portions of southeastern Australia’s winter wheat belt, and continued across Western Australia. Below-average rainfall was observed across northern Australia.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days
During the last 15 days, early period rains brought above-average accumulations to portions of South Australia and Victoria, while below-normal rainfall was observed across much of New South Wales and Queensland. Seasonable dryness continued across Western Australia. Two-week rainfall deficits exceeding 25mm (locally 50mm) were widespread across northern Australia.

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days
During the last 30 days, below-average rainfall was observed across key summer crop areas (new South Wales and Queensland), contrasting with above-normal rainfall in southeastern Australia. Near- to slightly above-average rainfall was observed in Western Australia, while below-average rainfall fell across northern regions.

13. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days
30-day rainfall time series depict the recent drier trend across most of Australia. 30-day totals remain above-average across eastern growing areas of Western Australia (top left panel) and in Victoria (bottom right panel). In contrast, summer crop areas remain well below-average (top right panel).

14. Temperature (°C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Extreme Maximum
Mean
Anomaly
During 29 Nov – 5 Dec 2009, mild high pressure at the surface promoted near- to below-normal temperatures across central and southeastern Australia.
Maximum temperatures above 35°C covered most of Queensland and northern New South Wales.

15. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 7 Dec 2009 – Days 1-7
Total
Anomaly
For Days 1-7 (7 – 13 Dec 2009), the GFS predicts near- to below-average rainfall across eastern Australia.

16. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 7 Dec 2009 – Days 8-14
Total
Anomaly
For Days 8-14 (14 – 20 Dec 2009), the GFS predicts below-average precipitation to persist across eastern Australian croplands.

17. Forecast Verification: Australia
Total
Anomaly
Forecast from 23 Nov 2009
Valid 30 Nov – 6 Dec 2009
Forecast from 30 Nov 2009
Observed
30 Nov – 6 Dec 2009
Unavailable
Unavailable

18. Southern Africa Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns Temperature Patterns
GFS Forecast

19. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days
During the last 7 days, widely scattered showers fell across eastern portions of southern Africa (left-panel).
Below-average rainfall was observed over central Zambia and northern Botswana for a second week (brown oval, right panel).

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days
During the last 15 days, slightly below-average rainfall was observed over most of South Africa. Above-average rainfall was observed over southern Mozambique, Zimbabwe and the western half of Zambia (right panel).

21. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days
During the last 30 days below-average rainfall was observed across interior South Africa. Above-average rains fell across southern Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

22. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days
30-day rainfall time series depict the near-to-above average rainfall across Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique (top two panels), with rainfall below-average in South Africa (bottom panels).

23. Temperature (C) Based on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Extreme Maximum
Mean
Anomaly
Near- to above-average temperatures were observed across southern Africa’s Maize Triangle.

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 7 Dec 2009 – Days 1-7
Total
Anomaly
For Days 1-7 (7 – 13 Dec 2009), above-average rainfall is predicted to spread southward into Zimbabwe, with near normal precipitation elsewhere.

25. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 7 Dec 2009 – Days 8-14
Total
Anomaly
For Days 8-14 ( Dec 2009), above-average rainfall is predicted to continue over southwestern Zambia, eastern Botswana, Zimbabwe and southern Mozambique while below-average rainfall is predicted over northeastern Zambia and extreme northern Mozambique (right-panel). Near-average rainfall is predicted over most of South Africa.

26. Forecast Verification: Southern Africa
Total
Anomaly
Forecast from 23 Nov 2009
Valid 30 Nov – 6 Dec 2009
Forecast from 30 Nov 2009
Observed
30 Nov – 6 Dec 2009
Unavailable
Unavailable

27. Brazil & Argentina Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns
Temperature Patterns
GFS Forecast

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days
Widespread thunderstorms brought locally heavy rainfall to Brazil’s center west and southeast farmlands, especially from central Mato Grosso through Minas Gerais. Showers also returned to soybean fields in Tocantins and western Bahia. Drier conditions overspread Parana, but heavy rain continued to soak western Rio Grande do Sul.
Beneficial showers continued across Santiago del Estero and Argentina’s northeastern farmlands, but drier weather returned to central Argentina, most notably Cordoba.
Brazil
Argentina

29. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days
Above-average rainfall was observed from central Brazil through the south, with much above normal rainfall (amounts exceeding 300mm over two weeks) falling in western Rio Grande do Sul. Below-normal rainfall was observed across northern South America and the Amazon.
Beneficial moisture was observed over the previous 15 days, especially in northern Argentina, with much above normal amounts recorded in northeastern croplands.
Brazil
Argentina

30. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days
Sub-average precipitation was observed across northern South America, extending into soybean regions of Tocantins and western Minas Gerais.
Near-average rainfall fell across key summer croplands in Mato Grosso, Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo through Parana.
Much above-average rainfall (greater than 600mm) was observed in western Rio Grande do Sul.
During the last 30 days, rain was observed in previously dry portions of northern and central Argentina.
Brazil
Argentina

31. Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 30 Days
30-day time series depict the near average rainfall (picking up recently) across central and southeastern Brazil.
The bottom panels show the much above average rainfall (more than twice the 30 day average) in southern Brazil, and the improved moisture across northern Argentina.

32. Temperature (°C) - Brazil Based on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Extreme Maximum
Mean
Anomaly
Near- to above-average temperatures were observed across Brazil.

33. Temperature (°C) - Argentina Based on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Extreme Maximum
Mean
Anomaly
Above-average temperatures in northern Brazil contrasted with cooler conditions in Buenos Aires. Minimum temperatures in southern Buenos Aires dipped below 5°C (including two interior stations recording lows of 1°C and 0°C), though no widespread freeze was recorded.

34. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 7 Dec 2009 – Days 1-7
Total
Anomaly
For Days 1-7 (7 – 13 Dec 2009), heavy rainfall is expected to continue across Rio Grande do Sul. Heavy rains are also expected across south central and southeastern Brazil, with drier weather prevailing further north.

35. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 7 Dec 2009 – Days 8-14
Total
Anomaly
For Days 8-14 (14 – 20 Dec 2009), heavy rainfall is forecast to continue in Rio Grande do Sul, with a drier trend across the remainder of southern Brazil. Wet weather will continue along a line from Mato Grosso through Minas Gerais, though dry conditions are forecast to return to the northeastern interior.

36. Forecast Verification: South America
Total
Anomaly
Forecast from 23 Nov 2009
Valid 30 Nov – 6 Dec 2009
Forecast from 30 Nov 2009
Observed
30 Nov – 6 Dec 2009
Unavailable
Unavailable

37. USDA Crop Information Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles
Crop Calendars by Month