1. www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter Environmental Impacts of E-bikes in Chinese Cities BAQ 2006 Sub-workshop 16: Tailpipe Emissions from 2-3 Wheelers December 14, 2006 Christopher R. Cherry PhD Candidate Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Berkeley Jonathan Weinert PhD Candidate Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis Chaktan Ma Graduate Researcher Institute of Transportation Engineering Tsinghua University Partnership with: Pan Haixiao-Tongji University Xiong Jian-Kunming University of Science and Technology Yang Xinmiao-Tsinghua University

2. www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter Outline Brief Introduction Research Objective Approach, Methodology, Data Results Future Research

3. www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter Emergence of Electric Two- Wheelers in large Chinese Cities Most large Chinese cities have banned or heavily restricted gasoline motorcycles in the city center. In response, electric bicycles and scooters that can ride in the bike lane have gained popularity and mode share. Sources: Jamerson (2004) LuYuan Electric Bike Company (2006), Yu (2004), China Statistical Yearbook (2005)

4. www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter Emergence of Electric Bicycles in large Chinese Cities Several cities have (attempted) bans on e-bikes –Guangzhou, Beijing, Fuzhou What are the effects of these bikes on the transportation system? –Environmental implications Energy use and emissions –-Production and Use Hazardous Waste-Lead Acid Batteries –Safety of electric bikes and others in lanes –Congestion –Increased mobility and accessibility Compared to what modes?

5. www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter Research Objective-Approach Identify Life-cycle environmental impacts of e-bikes in Chinese cities (production, use, disposal) –Energy –Emissions Compared to what modes? Bus and Bike

6. www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter Environmental Impacts-Production Production Energy Use and Emissions –Raw Materials –Energy intensities and emission intensities from raw material production –Assembly Processes –Assumes 5 batteries over lifespan, and 3 sets of tires (10 year lifespan) Sources: China statistical yearbook (2004, 2005), China industrial yearbook (2004), China Data Online, Mao et al. (2006), Price et al. (2001) TABLE 1: Material Inventory, Emissions and Energy Use Associated Energy and Emissions of Manufacturing Processes BSEBSSEB Energy Use (tonne SCE)0.1780.260 Energy Use (kWh)14492117 Greenhouse Gas (Tonne CO2eq)0.5990.865 Air Pollution (SO2) (kg)1.5612.194 Air Pollution (PM) (kg)5.8178.158 Waste Water (kg)14862086 Solid Waste (kg)4.4577.127

7. www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter Environmental Impacts-Use SSEB E-bike Energy Use 1.3kWh/100km –6.6% electricity transmission loss (national average), 6.1% in-plant electricity use –50,000 km life=735kWh=0.09 tonne SCE Emissions from Electricity Production –Kunming 1 : 52% hydro, 48% coal –Shanghai: 2% hydro, 98% coal –All China: 15% hydro, 75% coal, 8% gas, 2% nuclear 1.China Statistical Yearbook 2005, Energy Foundation China 2005 Electric bike Emissions (g km -1 ) KunmingShanghaiAll China SO 2 0.0760.1560.119 NO X 0.0170.0350.027 PM0.0040.0080.006 CO 2 6.96114.34211.474

8. www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter Environmental Impacts-Lead Battery Pollution –95% of electric bikes use lead acid batteries –Lead batteries last about 300 recharges or 1-2 years (10,000 km) –China Lead Acid Battery Recycling/Loss Rates 1 4.8% Loss Rate During Manufacture 27.5% Loss Rate During Mining, Smeltering and Recycling 62% Recycling Rate –36V (10.3kg), 48V (14.7kg) lead content –36V-3.214 kg lost during manufacture, 3.914 kg lost due to low recycle rate –48V-4.689 kg lost during manufacture, 5.586 kg lost due to low recycling rate Electric bikes indirectly emit 712-1028 mg/km into environment! If 100% recycled, still 321-469mg/km into environment –For Sake of Comparison-in the USA: 4% loss from virgin production, 2% from recycling and 1% from manufacturing A 7.9L/100km (30mpg) car running on leaded fuel emits 33mg/km 1 Mao et al. (2006) 2 Lave et al.(1995)

9. www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter Lifecycle Impacts 0.37 1.53 8.20 8.75 2234 38.87 50.67

10. www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter What Are E-biker’s Alternatives? The net environmental impacts are relative to the next best alternatives. –3 E-bike surveys conducted in Spring 2006 Shanghai, Kunming, Shijiazhuang –Vast majority of respondents would shift to bus or bicycle if e-bikes banned –Bicycles are most benign-zero use emissions and low production emissions –Buses are big polluters, but also big people movers Image source: Cervero (2005)

11. www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter Bus Emissions Comparative Emissions of Chinese Buses and E-bikes Use Phase OnlyFull Lifecycle Bus 1 (g km -1 ) Bus (g pax -1 km -1 ) SSEB (all China) (g pax -1 km -1 ) SSEB (all China) (g pax -1 km -1­ ) CO 7.970.159 Unknown CO 2 127525.49 11.4730.60 HC 0.7280.015 Unknown NO X 13.510.270 0.027Unknown SO 2 0.0730.0015 0.1190.164 PM 0.7690.015 0.0060.175 Lead (Pb)0.2480.0050.862 Majority of E-bike environmental impact during production phase Majority of Bus impact during use phase 1 Air Resources Board (2001, 2002), Nylund and Erkkila (2005), Embarq (2006)

12. www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter Other Impacts of E-bikes Other impacts: –contribution to congestion? Are e-bikes any worse than bicycles? –safety? Crash/fatality rate much lower than cars, slightly higher than bicycles –mobility and accessibility? Buses cannot provide equal levels of personal mobility in Chinese cities-access and egress lost time

13. www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter Job Accessibility in Kunming-20 Min

14. www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter Conclusions Rather than ban e-bikes, target regulation toward problematic areas –Lead battery tax=“pull” industry toward better batteries E-bikes in infancy and performance will improve –Need predictable standards/regulation for industry to invest in R&D –Longer lifespan and better technology Could delay car ownership Must consider benefits of e-bikes in policy analysis Some things e-bike industry cannot fix –Electricity production industry –Raw material production industries (lead and steel)

15. www.its.berkeley.edu/volvocenter Future Work Public Health Effects of Local vs. Regional Emissions Investigate Full Life Cycle of Alternative Modes Identify Regional Impact of E-bike Use and Project Future Technologies (battery, power plant) and Impacts Investigate Other Externalities –Safety –Congestion –Accessibility Questions? Contact: cherry@berkeley.edu www.ce.berkeley.edu/~cherry