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CAR Commercial Forum Meeting – September 2013 (Chicago Metro) Robert Carrillo September2013
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Macro Economic Trends and Forecast Estimate for 2013.Q2 GDP is 1.7 indicating modest but sustained growth QOQ Quantitative Easing and Tapering is coming QE4? Fed likely to taper back on asset purchases Key interest rates expected to leave rates near 0 (until unempl. rate nears 6.5%). Economists split on when Fed will raise but most say 2015. *Reporting and polling by Deepti Govind 1
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Jobs Unemployment dropped to 7.3% Nationally 63.2% Participation Rate (lowest since 1978) Economists Mixed (sustained growth at subpar pace 2
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Business Sentiment Business spending shows growing confidence in the first half of the year The first quarter spending was down 4.6 percent, with a decline driven by a 25.7 percent drop in spending on commercial structures However, the second quarter posted a much better performance, with an annual growth rate of 4.6 percent Spending on commercial buildings rose 6.8 percent In line with growing demand for properties, prices rose 8 percent on a yearly basis, according to RCA’s Commercial Property Price Index. Prices rose the most for apartments (15%) and retail buildings (13%). 3
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Business Sentiment (cont’d) 4
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General Market Info 5 Chicago is the 3 rd largest US city by population Employment lagging US and unemployment still high, 10.3 (Chicago) and 9.1 (Illinois), but positive movement being made Multi-family projected increase of over 225%
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Risks and Opportunities 6 Foreclosure in SFR sector is still a little high Unemployment slow to recover Apartments greatest improvement, due to increased household formations and tight mortgage underwriting Multi-family permits forecasted to increase exponentially, vacancy rates declined sharply and now stabilizing, inventory dropping and rent forecasted to increase. Supply and Demand coming in line.
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Overall Snapshot Los Angeles = Los Angeles County New York = Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens and The Bronx Miami = Miami-Dade County Chicago = Illinois component of Chicago MSA Philadelphia = Philadelphia County San Francisco = San Francisco County Population data from US Census Bureau, July 2011 *estimate # Sales Transactions <1mil Total $ Sales Transactions <1mil Average Sales Transactions <1mil Largest Segment by $Population Los Angeles1945$1,054,671,274$541,167Multifamily9,889,056 New York1689$910,934,578$539,334Retail7,774,443 Miami1056$365,182,786$345,817Retail424,662 Chicago1020$376,495,828$368,899Retail9,650,000* Philadelphia609$161,003,457$264,374Retail1,536,471 San Francisco185$112,161,450$606,278Multifamily812,826 7
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BREF Partner Value Underserviced Market Our customer is your customer There are over 27 million small business owners* in the U.S. and they are heavily invested in real estate Ninety-five (95) percent of small business owners own their personal residence per the National Federation of Independent Business, Access to Credit Study in 2008 Twenty-two (22) percent have taken out at least one mortgage on their personal residence to finance business activities Thirty-four (34) percent own the commercial property that houses their small business Forty-one (41) percent own investment real estate, excluding their residence and business The majority, fifty-eight (58) percent of those owning investment property, own more than one such property 8 “In Chicago over the past 12 months 82% of CRE sales transactions were <$1million compared to 53% in LA, 62% in New York and 77% in Miami.”
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Sources NAR 2013 CRE Outlook REIS CNNMoney.com Wells Fargo Securities, LLC 9
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