1. Daily and Season Peak Visitation Models and Implications for Recreation Management: Evidence from Two Rivers in Puerto Rico Luis E. Santiago University of Puerto Rico Armando González-Cabán USDA Forest Service John Loomis Colorado State University

2. Introduction Public land and recreation managers concerns: Public land and recreation managers concerns: –Impact of increasing number of visitors on the natural environment –Impact on water quality This research examines daily visitation directly related to site impact. This research examines daily visitation directly related to site impact. Factors that influence daily peak use may be estimated with models considering aggregate data on daily peak visitation Factors that influence daily peak use may be estimated with models considering aggregate data on daily peak visitation Explanatory variables in daily model Explanatory variables in daily model –may provide a forecasting tool –Useable to limit or redistribute use to other sites.

3. The Study Area: The Espíritu Santo and Mameyes Rivers Watersheds

4. Literature Review Past research usually found little alteration of water quality from second home development, swimming, use of developed campgrounds, or dispersed recreation use (Cole 1989) Past research usually found little alteration of water quality from second home development, swimming, use of developed campgrounds, or dispersed recreation use (Cole 1989) An increase in the number of visitors may have a direct impact on its natural resources, measured by soil degradation and damage to vegetation (Hammit et al. 1998) An increase in the number of visitors may have a direct impact on its natural resources, measured by soil degradation and damage to vegetation (Hammit et al. 1998)

5. Literature Review Visitors’ perception of the impact on their hiking satisfaction is not always consistent with the actual physical deterioration. (Deng et al. 2003) Visitors’ perception of the impact on their hiking satisfaction is not always consistent with the actual physical deterioration. (Deng et al. 2003) Limits of Acceptable Change (LAC) helps develop specific objectives for both ecological and social concerns. Monitoring determines whether or not objectives are met, and management strategies are developed for situations where objectives have not been met (Stankey et al. 1985) Limits of Acceptable Change (LAC) helps develop specific objectives for both ecological and social concerns. Monitoring determines whether or not objectives are met, and management strategies are developed for situations where objectives have not been met (Stankey et al. 1985)

6. Visitor Sampling Nineteen sampling sites Nineteen sampling sites Criterion: river-roads crossing Criterion: river-roads crossing Espíritu Santo Mameyes # of sites11 9 Potential zero visitation sites 53

7. Visitor Sampling Sampling schedule designed to: Sampling schedule designed to: –Contain an even distribution among days of the week (weekdays, weekends and holidays). –Minimum of five sampling days per site. –Included at least three weekend days and two weekdays. –At least one of the three weekend days was a holiday weekend. –Sampling days in proportion to total visitor use.

8. Sampling Data collection: Data collection: – July 1 to August 22, 2005 –A member of each visiting group interviewed Visitor counts: Visitor counts: –Five times a day: 11 AM, 12 Noon, 1 PM, 3 PM and 5 PM

9. Sampling Sites: Mameyes and Espíritu Santo Rivers 2004-2005

10. Sampling Sites Mameyes Watershed: La MinaEspíritu Santo Watershed: Waterfall Mameyes Watershed: La VegaEspíritu Santo Watershed: El Verde

11. Findings: In River and Outside River Visitation at the Espíritu Santo River by Day of the Week Table 1. Seasonal number of visitors (%) at Espíritu Santo river. Percent of visitors’ recreating Day of the week TotalIn the riverOutside the river Weekdays561981 Weekends136832 Holidays316337

12. Findings: In River and Outside River Visitation to Rio Mameyes by Day of the Week Table 1. Seasonal number of visitors (%) at Mameyes river. Percent of visitors’ recreating Day of the week TotalIn the riverOutside the river Weekdays524456 Weekends185347 Holidays306436

13. Results: Daily Model VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C-135.666238.3555-3.53710.0009 Travel Cost 1.0515 1.2169 0.86410.3919 Waterfall Y1 -54.240421.4306-2.53100.0147 Parking Spots 0.3123 0.1104 2.82940.0068 Holiday 124.3379 9.5951 2.53650.0145 Crowding 16.7895 5.1364 3.26880.0020 Time in river 0.1885 0.1051 1.79320.0792 Enjoyment Level 7.1279 4.3626 1.63390.1088 Elevation 0.1643 0.0681 2.41330.0197

14. Management and Policy Implications The daily model can help estimate peak visitation levels considering The daily model can help estimate peak visitation levels considering –physical characteristics –type of days variables like holiday periods The parking spots The parking spots –constitute a management control variable

15. Management and Policy Implications In these two Caribbean National Forest streams – –Large number of other visitors in the streams act as an attractant rather than a repellant – –The social norm resulting in concentrating of use, rather than spreading, does not appear to result in adverse water quality effects. (Hein 2007; Scatena and Marcial 2006)

16. Management and Policy Implications The visitation level data gathered The visitation level data gathered –may provide Commonwealth and municipal agencies evidence to obtain and assign resources for site maintenance –as well as general maintenance of these sites, which are mainly used by their residents. Visitors’ use at these sites need not be limited Visitors’ use at these sites need not be limited –even with concentrated use water quality does not appear to be adversely affected during normal flows.