2. DISASTER PREPAREDNESS A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

3. CITYCITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS EARTHQUAKES INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY IENCE FOUR PILLARS OF RESILIENCE

4. A FOCUS ON THE TECHNIQUE OF DEVELOPING A DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO EXAMPLES COMPLETED NEXT LECTURE

5. PURPOSE: I nformation from disaster scenarios will facilitate the adoption and implementation of policies and plans to enable a city to be well prepared for future events.

6. DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN--- A CITY’S (COMMUNITY’S) PUBLIC POLICIES LEAVE IT … UN—PREPARED FOR THE INEVITABLE NATURAL HAZARDS

7. GLOBAL GOAL: FROM UN—PREPARED TO A STATE OF PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL CITIES AND ALL NATURAL HAZARDS

8. TECHNIQUE

9. SUMMARY A risk assessment is the probabilistic integration of: The hazard (e.g., earthquakes) and their potential disaster agents (ground shaking, etc) and The exposure, location and vulnerability of elements of the city’s built environment).

10. SUMMARY: HAZARD ENVIRONMENT The parameters of the hazard environment control the primary disaster agents of ground shaking and ground failure and the secondary disaster agents of surface fault rupture, tsunami wave run up, seiche, regional tectonic deformation, and aftershocks.

11. SUMMARY: BUILT ENVIRONMENT The built environment is comprised of buildings and infrastructure (the exposure, or the elements at risk), each having a relative vulnerability to a specific potential disaster agent such as ground shaking.

12. HAZARD MAPS BASED ON A PROBABILISTIC MODEL

13. REQUIRED INFORMATION Location of active faults. Geometry of the faults. Regional tectonic setting. Spatial and temporal characteristics of seismicity

14. REQUIRED INFORMATION Rate of decay of seismic energy with distance from the point of fault rupture. Magnitude, other source parameters, and geologic structure.

15. REQUIRED INFORMATION The physical properties of shallow, near-surface soils. Construction materials of the exposure (buildings and infrastructure)

16. GROUND SHAKING Ground shaking is characterized by two primary parameters: 1) the acceleration time history, and 2) its spectral acceleration. Each varies as a function of magnitude, distance from the fault zone, and the properties of the local soil and rock column.

17. TIME HISTORY AND SPECTRA

18. CONSTRUCTING A PROBABILISTIC EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MAP ATTENUATION SESMIC SOURCESRECURRENCEPROBABILITY

19. CONSTRUCTING A MAP The first step is to choose one of the following parameters to map: Intensity (Typically MMI values) Peak ground acceleration (Typically PGA values) Spectral acceleration (Typically 0.2 s period (short buildings) and/or 1.0 s period (tall buildings )

20. CONSTRUCTING A MAP The second step is to choose an appropriate scale for the application and prepare a grid of points (e.g., 0.05 degree latitude and longitude)

21. CONSTRUCTING A MAP The final steps are to add the layers of data, such as: The geographic boundaries and cultural features of the community. The fault systems. The seismicity. Seismic attenuation and soil

22. EXAMPLE: ATTENUATION

23. EXAMPLE OF SOIL AMPLIFICATION

24. CALCULATIONS Perform calculations for an exposure time (e.g., 50 or 100 years), and exceedance probability (e.g., 2 % or 10 %).

26. FROM A GROUND SHAKING MAP TO PUBLIC POLICY A map format facilitates dialogue on the best ways to form public policy for protecting the city’s essential facilities and critical infra- structure, another key element of disaster resilience.

27. UNREINFORCED MASONRY, BRICK OR STONE REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH UNREINFORCED WALLS INTENSITY REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS STEEL FRAME ALL METAL VVIVIIVIIIIX 3530 25 20 15 10 5 0 MEAN DAMAGE RATIO, % OF REPLACEMENT VALUE EXPECTED LOSS, VULNERABILTY, AND GROUND SHAKING

28. POLICY CONSIDERATIONS: GROUND SHAKING VARIES ACROSS USA

29. POLICY ENVIRONMENT A city’s leaders make the decisions on what it will do to control and reduce its perceived risks (e.g., by adopting and implementing policies such as building codes, and lifeline standards to protect, and retrofit and rehabilitation to sustain).

30. RISK MODELING BASED ON HAZUS-MH (OR A COMPARABLE MODEL)

31. RISK ASSESSMENT The exposure (e.g., people, and elements of the community’s built environment) represent the TYPE and EXTENT of loss that is possible.

32. RISK ASSESSMENT (Continued) The vulnerability (or fragility) of each element comprising the exposure affect nature and extent of damage and potential for collapse and loss of function.

33. RISK ASSESSMENT (Continued) The location of each element of the exposure in relation to the hazard (ground shaking) affects the severity of shaking and potential damage.

34. RISK ASSESSMENT (continued) The uncertainty in parameters that characterize the hazard and built environments affect decision making.

35. EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS NOTE: TECHNIQUE THIS LECTURE; RESULTS NEXT LECTURE)

36. (SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA): EARTH- QUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

37. (LAS ANGELES AREA): EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

38. (SEATTLE, WA AREA): EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? WHEN? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? WHEN? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

39. (MEMPHIS, TN AREA): EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

40. (TOKYO, JAPAN AREA): EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR? HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE? HOW DEEP? WHEN? THE DISASTER AGENTS? VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

41. VULNERABILITY OF ELEMENTS Note: Each element has a unique vulnerability (fragility) to earthquake ground shaking as the result of flaws that enter during the planning, siting, design, construction, use, and maintenance of individual buildings and elements of infrastructure.

42. VULNERABILITY An element’s vulnerability is related to varying designs, ranging from non-engineered (e.g., a single-family dwelling) to engineered (e.g., a high-rise building).

43. VULNERABILITY Vulnerability is related to varying ages of construction, which also means varying editions of the building code and its seismic design provisions.

44. VULNERABILITY Vulnerability is related to varying construction materials (e.g., wood, un-reinforced masonry, un- reinforced concrete, reinforced concrete, light metal, and steel).

45. VULNERABILITY Vulnerability is related to the design for varying service lives (e.g., 30 years for the half-life of a class of houses; 40 years for a class of bridges, etc.).

46. VULNERABILITY Vulnerability is related to varying configurations (i.e., elevations and floor plans). NOTE: The greater the vulner- ability the higher the potential for the building to collapse)

47. RELATIVE VULERABILITY [1 (Best) to 10 (Worst)] 1-2 CONFIGURATION VULNERABILITY LOCATIONS OF POTENTIAL FAILURE None, if attention given to foundation and non structural elements. Rocking may crack foundation and structure. BUILDING ELEVATION Box

48. RELATIVE VULERABILITY [1 (Best) to 10 (Worst)] 4 - 6 CONFIGURATION VULNERABILITY LOCATIONS OF POTENTIAL FAILURE Top heavy, asymmetrical structure may fail at foundation due to rocking and overturning. BUILDING ELEVATION Inverted Pyramid

49. RELATIVE VULERABILITY [1 (Best) to 10 (Worst)] 2 - 3 LOCATIONS OF POTENTIAL FAILURE Vertical transition in mass, stiffness, and damping may cause failure at foundation and transition points at each floor. BUILDING ELEVATION Multiple Setbacks CONFIGURATION VULNERABILITY CONFIGURATION

50. RELATIVE VULERABILITY [1 (Best) to 10 (Worst)] 5 - 6 CONFIGURATION VULNERABILITY LOCATIONS OF POTENTIAL FAILURE Asymmetry and horizontal transition in mass, stiffness and damping may cause failure where lower and upper structures join. BUILDING ELEVATION “L”- Shaped Building

51. RELATIVE VULERABILITY [1 (Best) to 10 (Worst)] 3 - 5 CONFIGURATION VULNERABILITY LOCATIONS OF POTENTIAL FAILURE Vertical transition and asymmetry may cause failure where lower part is attached to tower. BUILDING ELEVATION Inverted “T”

52. RELATIVE VULERABILITY [1 (Best) to 10 (Worst)] 6 - 7 CONFIGURATION VULNERABILITY LOCATIONS OF POTENTIAL FAILURE Horizontal and vertical transitions in mass and stiffness may cause failure on soft side of first floor; rocking and overturning. BUILDING ELEVATION Partial “Soft” Story

53. RELATIVE VULERABILITY [1 (Best) to 10 (Worst)] 4 - 5 CONFIGURATION VULNERABILITY LOCATIONS OF POTENTIAL FAILURE Top heavy asymmetrical structure may fail at transition point and foundation due to rocking and overturning. BUILDING ELEVATION Overhang

54. RELATIVE VULERABILITY [1 (Best) to 10 (Worst)] 8 - 10 ANALYSIS OF VULNERABILITY LOCATIONS OF POTENTIAL FAILURE Vertical transitions in mass and stiffness may cause failure on transition points between first and second floors. BUILDING ELEVATION “Soft” First Floor

55. RELATIVE VULERABILITY [1 (Best) to 10 (Worst)] 8 - 9 CONFIGURATION VULNERABILITY LOCATIONS OF POTENTIAL FAILURE Horizontal and vertical transition in stiffness and cause failure of individual members. BUILDING ELEVATION Theaters and Assembly Halls

56. RELATIVE VULERABILITY [1 (Best) to 10 (Worst)] 9 - 10 URATION CONFIG VULNERABILITY LOCATIONS OF POTENTIAL FAILURE Horizontal and vertical transitions in mass and stiffness may cause failure at transition points and possible overturning. BUILDING ELEVATION Combination of “Soft” Story and Overhang

57. RELATIVE VULERABILITY [1 (Best) to 10 (Worst)] 9 - 10 CONFIGURATION VULNERABILITY LOCATIONS OF POTENTIAL FAILURE Horizontal and vertical transition in mass and stiffness may cause failure columns. BUILDING ELEVATION Sports Stadiums

58. RELATIVE VULERABILITY [1 (Best) to 10 (Worst)] 10 CONFIGURATION VULNERABILITY LOCATIONS OF POTENTIAL FAILURE Horizontal transition in stiffness of soft story columns may cause failure of columns at foundation and/or contact points with structure. BUILDING ELEVATION Building on Sloping Ground

59. THE GOAL OF EVERY CITY WELL PREPARED FOR ALL NATURAL HAZARDS (E.G., FLOODS, SEVERE WINDSTORMS, EARTHQUAKES, ETC.)

60. DISASTER PREPAREDNESS IS A “24/7” EFFORT KNOW YOUR HAZARDS KNOW YOUR CITY KNOW WHAT TO DO WHEN… KNOW HOW TO DO IT WHEM… KNOW YOUR HAZARDS KNOW YOUR CITY KNOW WHAT TO DO WHEN… KNOW HOW TO DO IT WHEM…