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2013 Florida Legislative Overview UNITED WAY OF MIAMI-DADE 2013 FLORIDA LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW February 27, 2013 Presented by Ted Granger, President United.

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Presentation on theme: "2013 Florida Legislative Overview UNITED WAY OF MIAMI-DADE 2013 FLORIDA LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW February 27, 2013 Presented by Ted Granger, President United."— Presentation transcript:

1 2013 Florida Legislative Overview UNITED WAY OF MIAMI-DADE 2013 FLORIDA LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW February 27, 2013 Presented by Ted Granger, President United Way of Florida, Inc. 1

2 Money - Post War U.S. Recessions Peak to Trough % Length of Recession in Months Real GDP Industrial Production Payroll Employment 2007 to 9-2009 23-4.00%-17.88%-5.47% 2001 to 11-2001 8-0.40%-5.80%-2.10% 1990 to 3-1991 8-1.30%-4.30%-1.50% 1981 to 11-1982 16-2.70%-10.30%-3.20% 1980 to 7-1980 6-2.20%-6.90%-1.30% 1973 to 3-1975 16-3.10%-12.80%-2.80% 1969 to 11-1970 110.00%-7.50%-1.40% 1960 to 2-1961 10-1.60%-7.80%-2.30% 1957 to4-1958 8-3.80%-12.70%-4.00% 1953 to 5-1954 10-2.40%-9.10%-3.30% 1948 to 10-1949 11-1.80%-7.70%-4.40% Avg. for prev. recessions 10-1.90%-8.50%-2.60% 2 2

3 Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions, August 3 Source: Calculated RISK Finance & Economics, September 2012 3

4 Florida Economy Population 4 4

5 Florida Economy - Population Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research, UF, May 11, 2012 5 5

6 Florida Economy - Population Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research, UF, June 2011 6 6

7 Florida Economy - Population Avg. Ann. Pop. Grwth 318,000 7 7

8 Florida Economy – Population Growth by Age Group 8 Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 8

9 Florida Economy Construction Home Sales Foreclosures 9 9

10 Florida’s Long Recovery Construction -384,000 jobs from 200 7  +4,200 (1.3%) jobs Sept/Sept 2007 levels won’t return until 2031 10 Source: University of Central Florida, August 2012; Associated General Contractors, November, 2012 10

11 Home Sales Continue Improving Existing Single-Family Homes – 11/2011-2012  +24.4% US - +14.5% 8 months consecutive increase  +14.1% - Median Sales Prices $154,000  +10.6% - Average Sales Price $223,301 Condo Sales  +18.3%  +20.2% - Median Sales Prices 11 Source: Florida Realtors, December 2012; January 2013 11

12 Home Sales 12 Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 12

13 Florida Foreclosures Florida Foreclosure Rate  #1 in US 2012 1 Filing for every 312 Housing Units  US Rate = 1/706  #1 – Foreclosure filings in January 29,800 homes entered foreclosure  July –December 2012 105K - foreclosures cleared from the court 98K – foreclosures started  December 31 – 371K pending foreclosures 13 Source: RealtyTrac & Office of the State Courts Administrator, February 2013

14 Florida Foreclosures Average Foreclosure Timeframe in Florida  2007 - 169 days  2012 - 861 days (about 2.5 years) 3 rd longest in nation But…Foreclosure Starts +24% Dec./Dec Result on FL Budget Flat/slight growth in property tax income. 14 Source: Legislative Budget Commission, Long Range Financial Outlook, Fall 2012 14

15 Florida Foreclosures Ahead 38% of all residential loans in Florida are for homes that are underwater. 15 Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012

16 16 Source: RealtyTrac LLC, August 2012 August 2012 Foreclosure Rate Heat Map 16

17 Florida Economy Tourism 17

18 Tourism Rocks! Total Tourism Spending (Tourism/Recreation Taxable Sales) 2002-2011: 2002 - $51.1 billion 2003 - $51.5 billion* 2004 - $57.1 billion 2005 - $62.0 billion 2006 - $65.0 billion 2007 - $65.5 billion 2008 - $65.2 billion 2009 - $60.9 billion 2010 - $62.7 billion 2011 - $67.2 billion 18 Source: Visit Florida, December 2012 18

19 Tourism Rocks! Total State Sales Tax Revenues from Tourism 2002-2011: 2002 - $3.0 billion 2003 - $3.1 billion 2004 - $3.4 billion 2005 - $3.7 billion 2006 - $3.9 billion 2007 - $3.9 billion 2008 - $3.9 billion 2009 - $3.7 billion 2010 - $3.8 billion 2011 - $4.0 billion 19 Source: Visit Florida, December 2012

20 Tourism Rocks! Number of Persons Directly Employed by Tourism Industry 2002-2011: 2002 - 862,900 2003 - 874,700 2004 - 920,700 2005 - 948,700 2006 - 964,700 2007 - 991,300 2008 - 1,007,000 2009 - 973,800 2010 - 974,700 2011 - 1,013,100 20 Source: Visit Florida, December 2012

21 Tourism Rocks! Quarter ending June 30, 2012 over 2 nd quarter 2011 +1.3% overall 2.4M Foreign Visitors: +10% 18.8M domestic visitors: +0.3% Tourism Jobs: +1.1% (11,300) to 1,041,900 Tourism-Related Taxable Sales: +8.8% ($31.5B) 21 Source: Visit Florida, August 2012 21

22 Florida Unemployment 22 Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 22

23 Florida Unemployment December 2012 Florida Unemployment  8% - lowest rate in more than four years (11/08).  7.8% - US Rate  749,000 Floridians unemployed New jobs:  Leisure and hospital industry lead the way: +29,900 jobs (3.1% increase) 23 Source: Department of Economic Opportunity, January 2013 23

24 National Jobs Lost & Recovered U.S.Recession Job Losses Regained Jobs Low-Wage ($7.69 - $13.83 / $15,995 - $28,766) 21%58% Mid-Wage ($13.84 - $21.13 / $28,787 - $43,950) 60%22% High-Wage ($21.14 - $54.54 / $43,971 - $113,443) 19%20% 24 Source: National Employment Law Project, The Low-Wage Recovery and Growing Inequality, August 2012. 24

25 Florida Budget 25

26 Florida Budget Fiscal Cliff Deal: Good & Bad for Florida Bad: 2010 SS payroll tax deduction expires - $6.5B  Temporarily reduced in 2010 (6.2% to 4.2%)  7.1 million Florida households seeing a tax increase  Median Florida household ($45,000) – +$900 taxes in 2013. 26 Source: Institute Economic Competitiveness at the Univ. of Central Florida, January 2013 26

27 Florida Budget Fiscal Cliff Deal: Good & Bad for Florida Good: Extended federal emergency UC program, due to expire Jan. 1, for another year.  $1.4 billion for Florida economy  Long Term Unemployment US – 40% FL – 50.6% 27 Source: Institute Economic Competitiveness at the Univ. of Central Florida, January 2013 27

28 Florida Budget The Sequester $85 billion in spending cuts (2.4% of $3.6 trillion in federal spending) 28 Source: The White House, February 2013. 28

29 Florida Budget The Sequester: Florida Impacts  -31,000 civilian DOD jobs furloughed (-$183.2m)  -7,450 – children vaccinated (-$509,000)  -2,700 Head Start Children  -1,600 – subsidized child care children  -$3.8 million – meals for seniors  -$5 million – substance abuse grants  -$54.5 million – primary & secondary education 29 Source: The White House, February 2013.

30 Florida Budget Florida: Positive Debt Picture -$2B since 2010  $28.2B - $26.2B AAA Bond Rating State Borrowing  2012 - $416M  2002-2010 - $2B annually (avg.) Programs dependant on bonding:  School construction &maintenance (57% of debt load)  Transportation (27%)  Florida Forever (10%) 30 Source: Office of the Chief Financial Officer, December 2012 30

31 General Revenue Outlook ($ millions) FY 2011-12FY 2012-13 Total Funds Available 25,216.0026,070.10 Total Estimated Expenditures 27,726.7031,119.30 Ending Balance -2,510.70-5,049.20 31 Source: Legislative Budget Commission, September 2011 31

32 General Revenue Outlook ($ millions) FY 2013- 14* FY 2014- 15 FY 2015- 16 Total Funds Available** 27,853.728,306.529,541.3 Total Estimated Expenditures 27,416.927,253.027,947.3 Ending Balance 436.853.5594.0 32 Updated December, 2012 All GR – recurring, nonrecurring, roll-over Source: Legislative Budget Commission, Fall 2012 Report 32

33 No Budget Shortfall??? 2013-2014 Budget: “Flat” Flat is good! Budget surplus: first in 5 years 33

34 Florida GR History 34 Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 34

35 Florida GR Budget 2012-2013 Source: The Florida Legislature 35

36 Florida GR Budget 2012-2013 Program Area (Section of General Appropriations Act)DollarsPercent Education12,689.5 51.2% Human Services7,673.1 31.0% Judicial Branch331.4 1.3% Criminal Justice and Corrections3,136.0 12.7% Natural Resources/ Environment/ Growth Mgmt./ Transportation 225.6 0.9% General Government710.8 2.9% Total24,766.5 100.0% Source: The Florida Legislature 36

37 Florida Budget 2012-2013 Source: The Florida Legislature 37

38 Florida Budget 2012-2013 Program Area (Section of General Appropriations Act)DollarsPercent Education 20,286.4 29.0% Human Services 29,912.8 42.7% Judicial Branch 446.2 0.6% Criminal Justice and Corrections 4,191.2 6.0% Natural Resources/ Environment/ Growth Mgmt./ Transportation 11,329.8 16.2% General Government 3,870.2 5.5% Total70,036.7 100% Source: The Florida Legislature 38

39 Florida GR Revenue Sources Source: FL Revenue Estimating Conf.; 2012 Florida Tax Handbook 39

40 2013 Legislative Session Overview Thanks! 40

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