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Almost Boring: Residential Housing in 2015 DR. JIM GILKESON, CFA CFA SOCIETY OF ORLANDO APRIL 9, 2015.

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Presentation on theme: "Almost Boring: Residential Housing in 2015 DR. JIM GILKESON, CFA CFA SOCIETY OF ORLANDO APRIL 9, 2015."— Presentation transcript:

1 Almost Boring: Residential Housing in 2015 DR. JIM GILKESON, CFA CFA SOCIETY OF ORLANDO APRIL 9, 2015

2 Where We’ve Been  2005: Is the Sky Falling?  2007: What a Difference a Year Makes  2008: Where Do We Go From Here?  2009: Reading the Tea Leaves  2010: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly  2012: Have We Hit Bottom?  2013: (Very) Cautious Optimism  2014: Will Slow & Steady Win the Race?  2015: Almost Boring 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 2

3 What We’ll Talk About Today  Price  Volume (Sales)  Delinquency/Foreclosure  Financing  Supply  Demand  Wrap Up 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 3

4 Prices (constant quality) 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 4

5 Median Home Prices New homesExisting homes 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 5

6 Repeat Sales Price Indices 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 6

7 FHFA HPI (repeat sales) 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 7

8 Florida Price Appreciation 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 8 MSA1-year5-year Miami11.80%25.02% Ft Lauderdale9.48%32.29% Jacksonville8.71%3.88% Ft Myers8.19%31.74% Tampa/St. Pete7.41%15.10% West Palm Beach7.26%27.52% Orlando5.66%9.17% Sarasota5.10%19.25% FLORIDA7.85%17.32%

9 Sales Volume (US) 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 9

10 Sales Volume (local) 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 10

11 Orlando Sales and Prices 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 11

12 Bank Problem Loans: Federal Reserve Data 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 12

13 Mortgage Delinquencies: U.S. banks (OCC) 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 13

14 Florida Foreclosures 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 14 U.S.Florida FL rankOrlando Foreclosure Inventory1.4%3.5%3rd3.2% 1-year change-0.6%-2.9%-3.3% Completed foreclosures552,048111,3211st15,053 Serious Delinquency4.0%7.7%2nd7.4%

15 Distressed Sales 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 15

16 Conventional Mortgage Rate 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 16

17 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 17 Net Residential Mortgage Lending 20062008201020122014 Depository Institutions. + Credit Unions236.5-139.5-49.516.644.3 GSE5.212.7-76.4-82.52.9 Agency/GSE Pools290.9491.1175.8105.051.1 ABS Issuers510.4-324.0-160.8-106.7-67.9 Finance Co + REITS24.6-126.3-49.6-4.23.5 Other-21.1-14.4-1.3-3.8-4.7 Net borrowing1,046.5-100.4-161.8-75.629.2

18 FHA Share of Financings 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 18

19 Orlando Financing Sources: Cash is still King 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 19

20 Single Family Starts 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 20

21 Housing Market Index 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 21

22 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 22 Household Wealth Balance Sheet of Households & Nonprofit Organizations (in $trillions) 200420092014Δ04-14 Assets71.773.197.135.4% Tangible28.423.729.12.5% Household Real Estate22.116.920.6-6.8% Financial43.349.468.057.0% Deposits6.28.110.264.5% Credit Market3.45.63.40.0% Corporate Equities8.07.513.467.5% Mutual Fund Shares3.84.17.8105.3% Businesses Owned8.66.39.38.1% Pension Entitlements11.415.220.882.5% Liabilities Home Mortgages8.810.49.46.8% Consumer Credit2.32.63.343.5% Net Worth59.659.077.329.7%

23 Affordability Index (income/cost) 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 23

24 Consumer Confidence 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 24

25 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 25 Population Trends 07/01/2014 Population (millions) '13-'14 Growth United States318.90.7% Florida19.91.5% Orlando MSA2.32.2%

26 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 26 National Housing Survey It is a good time to: BUYSELL Jan-1064%10% Jan-1168%10% Jan-1271%11% Jan-1369%23% Jan-1465%38% Jan-1567%44%

27 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 27 National Housing Survey Personal financial situation is getting: BETTERWORSE Jan-1044%17% Jan-1144%12% Jan-1244%14% Jan-1343%19% Jan-1444%14% Jan-1548%11%

28 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 28 National Housing Survey The economy is on the: RIGHT trackWRONG track Jan-1031%62% Jan-1134%57% Jan-1230%61% Jan-1339%53% Jan-1439%54% Jan-1544%49%

29 Wrap Up  National  Housing is affordable  Mortgage rates low  Foreclosures and delinquencies back to normal  New housing starts still half of normal  Confidence is growing but not strong 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 29

30 Wrap Up  Orlando  Volume stable at peak but prices well below peak  Housing affordable  Population growing again  Starts half of pre-peak normal  Still quite a few problem loans  43% of 2014 sales were cash 4/9/2015 Jim Gilkeson, PhD, CFA 30

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