1. Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität Wien Technische Universität Wien xx naki@iiasa.ac.at Sustainable Energy for All, UN, NYC – 19-20 September 2011 Sustainable Energy for All A Perspective from GEA

2. UN General Assembly resolution 65/151 2030 Energy Goals ● ●Universal Access to Modern Energy ● ●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement ● ●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

3.  Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake- holders work together.  Energy transformation will bring multiple co- benefits for health, security, climate change  Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org Towards a more Sustainable Future

4. #4 Mapping Energy Access Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density

5.  Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake- holders work together.  Energy transformation will bring multiple co- benefits for health, security, climate change  Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org Towards a more Sustainable Future

6. #6 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Microchip Commercial aviation Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric motor Steam engine Nuclear energy Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy

7. #7 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Microchip Commercial aviation Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric motor Steam engine Nuclear energy Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation)

8. #8 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 Oil phase-out (necessary) Nuclear phase-out (choice)

9. #9 18501900195020002050 EJ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 Oil phase-out (necessary) Limited Intermittent REN Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – “negative CO 2 ” Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS

10. 19701990201020302050 MJ/US$2005 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 GEA-Efficiency 19701990201020302050 MJ/US$2005 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 GEA-Efficiency -1.7% pa -1.0% pa -1.2% pa -2.2% pa -3.3% pa -2.1% pa Source: GEA KM17 (in preparation) Final Energy Intensities

11. Other Low Carbon (Nuclear, Fossil-CCS) Fossils (Gas, Oil & Coal) Renewables (Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Bioenergy) Final Energy Transformations

12.  Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake- holders work together.  Energy transformation will bring multiple co- benefits for health, security, climate change  Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org Towards a more Sustainable Future

13. #13 Co-Benefits of Energy Investments

14. #14 Co-Benefits of Energy Investments

15. UN General Assembly resolution 65/151 The Way Forward ● ●Global Political Commitment – the huge multiple benefits as drivers ● ●Country Level Action is Key – identifying what works best in each country ● ●Private Sector is Key Partner – enabling environments for investment ● ●Facilitating Decision Making – much analytic and data work needed ● ●Supporting Country Efforts – financial and capacity development huge needs

16. UN General Assembly resolution 65/151 Integrated Solutions ● ●Political – links to global debates (MDGs, UNFCCC, WTO, RIO + 20, etc.) ● ●Sectoral – links to policies in other sectors are fundamental ● ●Geography - urban, provincial, regional, national linkages are necessary ● ●People - education, information and incentives for lifestyle changes ● ●Implementation - strong institutions (national and international) and facilitating mechanisms