1. THE CHANGING CALIFORNIA POPULATION CENSUS 2000 AND PROJECTIONS Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development http://www.usc.edu/sppd/census2000 http://www.usc.edu/schools/sppd/futures/

2. Topics When are the Census 2000 Results? Racial and Ethnic Change Demographic Futures for California Immigration and Settlement

3. Schedule of Census 2000 Data Release Spring 2001-- Race & Hispanic totals Summer 2001-- Basic variables of population and housing Fall 2001-- Basic variables repeated for each race Spring 2002-- Economic and other detailed variables

4. Questions Answered from Census Data Totals -- how many people did we grow, and where? Composition -- how much did the population make-up change? Dynamics -- what are the dynamics of change over time? Future -- what can we learn about the future of the residents?

5. Making Sense from the Data SELECTIVE CHOICE ANALYSIS the SEA of RAW DATA Interpretation

6. Some General Lessons for Policy Action UNDERSTAND YOUR CONTEXT GROUNDS FOR OPTIMISM the static picture is depressing BUT the dynamic picture shows strong upward mobility LEVERAGING THE DYNAMICS OF CHANGE population change creates a moving target small actions face relentless & immovable forces

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8. accelerating immigrant integration investing in children has the big payoff, but not for 20 years mitigating short-term frictions of ethnic change fostering intergenerational and interethnic sense of community and a shared future Some General Lessons for Policy Action LEVERAGING THE DYNAMICS OF CHANGE

9. Racial and Ethnic Changes

10. CENSUS OF 2000 (Asked of Everyone) RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE

11. Percent of Persons with a Given Racial Identification Who Share Additional Racial Identifications United States, 2000 RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE

12. Percent of Persons with a Given Racial Identification Who Share Additional Racial Identifications United States, 2000 RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE

13. Percent Multiracial Blacks by Size of Black Population in Each State, 2000 RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE

14. The Multiracial Belt Percent Multiracial of County Population, California 2000 RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE

15. American Indian The Overlap Problem Black Hispanic or Latino Overlap of Racial Categories and Hispanic Origin An Illustrative Example Using Only Three Categories RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE Hispanic or Latino

16. The Hispanic Overlap with Each Racial or Multiracial Category RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE

17. The Hispanic Overlap with Each Racial or Multiracial Category RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE

18. Policy Implications of Diversity in Cities Racial Diversity -- becoming the norm for local governments Relative Size of Groups is Unstable -- rapid changes in many cities Mismatch of Voters and…. -- total population -- school children Diverse Standards for Diverse Residents? RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE

19. Defining Multiethnic Cities: RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE

20. The Number of Balanced Multiethnic Cities In Counties of Southern California 1980-2000

21. RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE Carson

22. Monterey Park RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE

23. Azusa RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE

24. Los Angeles City RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE

25. Racial Composition of Total Population and of Each Age Group Compton, CA, 1960-1990 Latino Black White/ Other 19601970 19901980 RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE

26. Composition of Likely Voters in California Why White Voters Continue to Dominate Total Population a Age 18+ b 18+ Citizen b Likely voters in Nov. 2000 c Non-Hispanic White 50.3% All Others 49.7% TOTAL 100.0% 54.6% 45.4% 65.0% 35.0% 71.0% 29.0% Source: a 2000 California Department of Finance projection b 1990 Census Rates applied to 2000 population projection c Based on voting rates in "Voting and Registration in the Election of November 1998," Current Population Report P20-523, Table 3, Pacific Division of West Region. U.S. Census Bureau. RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE

27. DILEMMAS OF POPULATION CHANGE Today’s residents versus tomorrow’s Which residents today can speak about needs for tomorrow? RACIAL AND HISPANIC CHANGE Change in composition Different average characteristics Change in membership Turnover of residents