1. Socio-economic scenarios incorporated into the Integrated Assessment Platform and stakeholder integrated research Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe Funded under the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme Contract Number: 244031 For further information contact Marc Gramberger (email: Marc.Gramberger@prospex.com) and kasper Kok (email: Kasper.Kok@wur.nl) or visit the project website (www.climsave.eu)

2. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Scenarios …help us to understand the different ways in which the future might develop. …can be utilised to evaluate and change current thinking and improve decision-making. … are developed in the CLIMSAVE project to integrate knowledge and enhance solutions-oriented ‘out of the box’ thinking across: – expertise areas (stakeholders and researchers) – disciplines – a wider range of factors, sectors and actors … have been developed in the CLIMSAVE project as socio- economic scenarios using the Story-And-Simulation (SAS) approach, separate from Climate Change projections.

3. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Story-And-Simulation approach Qualitative stories developed by stakeholders are iteratively linked to quantitative models. Socio-economic scenarios are developed during stakeholder workshops using expert-determined methods and guided by professional facilitators.

4. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Socio-economic scenarios Sketch a number of credible future outlooks of socio- economic developments, and their potential effects on climate change adaptation. Were developed together with stakeholders through a series of workshops: – 3 workshops on the European level with a carefully defined cross-European selection of stakeholders; – 3 workshops on a regional level with Scotland as the case study and with a carefully defined cross-selection of Scottish stakeholders; – 1 shared learning and exchange session between the European and Scottish levels.

5. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu CLIMSAVE stakeholder workshops Source: Gramberger et al. (2013) Stakeholder Integrated Research (STIR): A new approach tested in climate change adaptation research. Climatic Change (under review).

6. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Stakeholder Integrated Research Source: Gramberger et al. (2013) Stakeholder Integrated Research (STIR): A new approach tested in climate change adaptation research. Climatic Change (under review).

7. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Stakeholder Integrated Research (2) Results in CLIMSAVE: – Developing qualitative scenarios in the form of stories enables developing valuable results in a participatory process involving a broad range of stakeholders from different backgrounds, expertise and professions; – The qualitative scenarios are an excellent basis to stimulate discussion, shared learning and ultimately identification of solutions to climate change adaptation challenges; and – Stakeholders quantify the resulting stories, which serve as an important input for the modelling in the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform, bringing together quantitative projections and qualitative storylines.

8. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu European CLIMSAVE scenarios

9. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Scottish CLIMSAVE scenarios

10. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Results: Stories

11. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Results: Dynamics and graphs Cognitive Map – We are the World scenario Dynamics for GDP – Should I Stay or should I Go scenario

12. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Results: Model parameter estimates

13. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Results: Incorporation in the IA Platform

14. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Results: Robust adaptation options

15. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Stakeholder satisfaction Stakeholders generally agreed that the scenario-building process as a whole was useful for developing climate change adaptation strategies:

16. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Stakeholder satisfaction (2) Across all three workshops the professional facilitation was very positively evaluated by both European as well as Scottish stakeholders:

17. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Recommendations Stakeholder Integrated Research is able to tackle challenges for stakeholder involvement in scientific research: – Enables a very close link between stakeholder contribution and research through participatory integration of stakeholders in the research process; – Provides successful identification and selection of stakeholders; – Enables stakeholders to provide substantial insights and useful knowledge and perspective relevant to the scientific endeavor through the design and professional facilitation of the engagement process; and – Enables to maintain stakeholder interest during the entire engagement process.

18. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Recommendations (results) The Story-And-Simulation approach was largely successfully implemented. Stories remain a crucial product. Additional products were highly complementary and therefore useful. Most adaptation options were related to natural and manufactured capital.