1. Fighting climate change Sudan response: the adaptation case Sumaya Ahmed Zakieldeen, IES, U of K Nagmeldin Goutbi Elhassan, HCENR

2. Outlines Sudan’s climate change process Vulnerability assessment Adaptation

3. Three projects enabled Sudan to work on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation : National communication Capacity building, preparation of FNC (commitment) and preliminary knowledge about impact and climate change. Funded by GEF and UNDP and government of Sudan Sudan’s First National Communications prepared and submitted, June 2003. Sudan’s climate change process

5. Sudan is particularly concerned with impacts of climate change: the majority of its land is quite sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. fragile ecosystems weak infrastructure and economy. food security is mainly determined by rainfall more than 70% of Sudan population is directly dependant on climate-sensitive resources for their livelihood.

6. Sudan’s climate change process AIACC (Assessment of Impact and Adaptation to Climate Change) http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/aiacc  One of the 24 regional studies of AIACC: Global Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in multiple regions and sectors  Partners: Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources (HCENR) in Sudan and Stockholm Environment Institute Boston Center (SEI-Boston)  capacity building for research community and identification of adaptation options contribution to methodology development  Provided information for the IPCC 4 th assessment report which covered vulnerability and adaptation in the developing countries.

7. Sudan’s climate change process National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) Partners: HCENR, UNDP, MIC, governments of Central Equatoria, River Nile, Gedarif, South Darfour and North Kordofan states The overall goal of the NAPA process in Sudan has been to identify urgent and immediate activities to address climate variability and climate change within the context of the country’s economic development priorities. Focused on three sectors planning, awareness, capacity building, identification of adaptation activities for implementation through LDCF.

8. THE FIVE ECOLOGICAL ZONES SELECTED FOR THE SUDANESE NAPA

9. Vulnerability assessment  Vulnerability: is “The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. FNC (Top-down) Vulnerable sectors Identified were: – Agricultural (rainfed) sector: Sorghum, millet and Gum Arabic – Water sector – Human health sector: malaria Methods and approaches: – Climate scenario – Impacts models

10. Vulnerability assessment The next 30 – 60 years: Agriculture and forestry: Shift in the agro ecological zones southward Shrinking in current crop production areas. Crop yield decline in selected stations by 29% - 71% for Sorghum (more affected than millet) and 5% - 62% for Millet Gum Arabic yields predicted to decline between 25% and 30% region- wide. Water sector: Greater water deficit is expected in years 2030 and 2060 than in the baseline, due to a decline in projected rainfall and an increase in the PETs from temperature rise. Human health (Malaria): Increased Transmission Potential (TP) of malaria in 2030 and 2060, particularly in winter due to higher temperatures. Greater risk of outbreak between October-December Less number of cases between April-July due to increase in temperature beyond the maximum tolerance limits of malaria parasites Climate change may alter the current distributions and intensity of malaria in Sudan.

11. Vulnerability assessment AIACC (participatory method) Targeted existing successful projects Assessment indicators and sustainable livelihood framework Word Picture: Worst caseBest case 0-2020-4040-6060-8080-100 PoorModerateGoodvery goodExcellent

12. Adaptation Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm. FNC  Top-down, very general and based on experts judgement  It built capacities in areas of modelling, long term projections  Highlighted potential adaptations for further assessment AIACC  Identified successful adaptation options  Clearly stated that certain SL/EM measures could increase the resilience of communities to climate related shocks  Showed that Adaptive capacity can improve where people have better access to resources, market, technology, information, social service, high level of awareness, skills, security, strong institutions and effective organizations

13. NAPA (stakeholder consultation and direct involvement) NAPA projects and activities Represent urgent and immediate needs of the most vulnerable groups Prepared through a participatory and consultative approach (government, research, universities, civil society, local and tradition leaders etc.) Aimed at improving the adaptive capacity of the communities affected by climate change Aimed at removing barriers to development caused by the impacts of climate change

14. Key non-climatic factors contributing to the vulnerability of rural communities in Sudan Severe poverty levels Lack of income diversity Lack of agricultural inputs Mismanagement of resources Over-cultivation of land Fragile land or water resources Poor soil fertility Deforestation Conflict over natural resources Poor extension services Displacement of communities Poor sanitation or health services

15. The components of the NAPA : Programmes or projects (Pilot for the zones) addressing the urgent and immediate adaptation needs Recommendations for improving current policies to be more comprehensive and relevant to climate change Recommendations for improving the effectiveness of the institutional framework to integrate and implement the strategy

16. Limitations for the NAPA implementation Political commitment is required to implement the strategy The awareness and knowledge among planners and decision-makers in relation to the climate change Technical and institutional capacities and the need to strengthen them in a sustainable way, Insufficient financial support limits the implementation of the strategy Grassroots communities suffering from poverty and permanent health problems and therefore are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change Lack of infrastructure, especially in the areas most affected

17. Examples of proposed activities in: Water sector - Introduction of new water harvesting/spreading techniques making use of intermediate technologies; -Construction of dams and water storage facilities in some of water valleys, particularly in western Sudan; Agricultural sector -Community-based forest and rangeland management and rehabilitation; -Drought early warning systems for disaster preparedness; Human sector Improve community sanitation and medical services, including capacities for diagnosis and treatment; Building of community awareness regarding preventative measures for malaria, meningitis, and leishmaniasis;

18. Summary of identified NAPA activities in the five zones www.UNFCCC.int

19. Examples of policy reform required Activation and/or establishment of state councils for environment and natural resources, and for the coordination of related work; Amendment of land use laws in order to be consistent with customary laws; Examples of institutional reform required Lack of spatial cooperation and coordination at all levels (national, states, localities) despite the intersection between the different related sectors; Lack of sector-specific coordination between affected sectors (water, agriculture, health)

20. Thank you