1. Module 6: Social Viability The role of agriculture in rural-to-urban migrations (RUM)

2. Agriculture and Social Viability Agriculture and Social Protection Agriculture and Social Capital Agriculture and the Rural-Urban Balance

3. Overview of Migration in the RoA Countries Trends in the Urban Share of Population History of the « Migration Drive » Agriculture versus Rural

6. Map of the discussion Lessons from the studies Policy implications Pending issues

7. Lessons: Preliminary observations Migration is necessary for growth RUM is only one mode of migration: rural-to-rural migration is important Rural social problems also exist Policies constraining migration are harmful

9. Lessons from the studies Who migrates why? Urban development patterns The role of agriculture

10. Lessons: who migrates why? Collective and individual determinants Who takes the decision? Demographic characteristics Education Economic determinants (poverty) Other push and pull determinants

11. Dominican Republic: reasons for migrating

12. Lessons: who migrates why? Collective and individual determinants Who takes the decision? Demographic characteristics Education Economic determinants (poverty) Other push and pull determinants

13. Lessons: who migrates why? Collective and individual determinants Who takes the decision? Demographic characteristics Education Economic determinants (poverty) Other push and pull determinants

14. Lessons: urban development features The primacy issue The role of regional towns The costs of urban growth: a pending issue

16. Lessons: urban development features The primacy issue The role of regional towns The costs of urban growth: a pending issue

17. Lessons: the Role of Agriculture The long term story Sub-sector differences: –Commodity differences –Institutional differences –Development projects Rural-to-rural migration (seasonal or permanent) Agriculture and rural development

19. Lessons: the Role of Agriculture The long term story Sub-sector differences: –Commodity differences –Institutional differences –Development projects Rural-to-rural migration (seasonal or permanent) Agriculture and rural development

20. Policy implications Rural development policies Agricultural policies Migration policies Other: Macro, Urban, Social policies?

21. Rural development policies Infrastructure and services Community organisations Town & Village enterprises Administrative decentralisation

22. Agriculture policies Agriculture terms of trade Profitable labour intensive agriculture Capital markets Agricultural insecurity Agricultural transformation and the rural economy

23. Migration policies Obstacles to migration can be harmful Incentives to not-migrating also … … and what about pro-migration policies? Spatial development management

24. Other policies Macroeconomic Urban Social

25. Pending issues The long term investigation of the role of agriculture The sub-sectoral analysis of agriculture transformation The costs of Urban growth The optimal rate of migration

26. Pending: long term role of agriculture Interpreting the history of the migration drive Data: migration history can be reconstructed Data: policy history –terms of trade –agricultural investment –rural infrastructure –macroeconomic trends

27. Pending: inside the transformation of agriculture Commodity dimension Institutional dimension Regional dimension Farming systems Critical aspect: labour intensity Critical aspect: local economic relations

28. Pending: the costs of Urban growth Private, public and collective costs Absorption costs (slums upgrading) Non-serviced needs have a cost Non-market methods of valuation Do not forget: there are rural costs also …

29. Pending: optimal rate of migration No conclusion possible otherwise A simple model or a CGE? Is there a political answer? What is really needed may be simpler: –is the observed rate ABOVE or BELOW the optimum? –accordingly, RUM is a COST or a BENEFIT.

30. Number ofMigrants Urban unemployment Income differential Expected benefits

31. Pending: optimal rate of migration No conclusion possible otherwise A simple model or a CGE? Is there a political answer? What is really needed may be simpler: –is the observed rate ABOVE or BELOW the optimum? –accordingly, RUM is a COST or a BENEFIT.

32. That’s all folks!